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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 20, 2024 9:26:51 GMT -6
Models having us in the mid/upper 20s during the first few hours of the event then struggle once they get around 32. Central Missouri rises quicker into the mid/upper 30s while eastern Missouri and most of Illinois linger between 32-25 degrees during the middle/latter part of the event. A couple more degrees colder and we could be looking at a significant icing event in some areas.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 20, 2024 9:37:22 GMT -6
RGEM goes bonkers with the ice, showing around a half inch of glaze in the Ozarks, and even .25-.35" inch along and east of the Mississippi River into much of southern Illinois. Keeps it freezing into Tuesday early AM before warming area wide.
 *Tried to share, but Freezing Rain/Glaze products are a Pivotal Plus Sub thing and it won't let me share. |
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Post by stegenwx on Jan 20, 2024 9:59:13 GMT -6
Which models have that lovely cold bias? Seems like it’s the Canadians?
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 20, 2024 10:23:03 GMT -6
Which models have that lovely cold bias? Seems like it’s the Canadians? The Ggem and rgem have the biggest cold bias. The HRRR has a warm bias. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 20, 2024 10:35:28 GMT -6
3km NAM looks icy most of the day Monday...has the changeover late afternoon/evening but the cold ground may prolong the surface glazing.
The good news is that roadways are caked with chemicals.
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Post by MakeitRain on Jan 20, 2024 10:40:47 GMT -6
Setup looks good for an impactful event.
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Post by maddogchief on Jan 20, 2024 11:03:05 GMT -6
Possible area for greatest concern of ice acceleration inside Magenta area. Amounts look around 0.1" or less outside the area, but inside of it could exceed 0.1" especially if colder solutions verify. Looks like it should stay under a quarter inch as intensity increases and temps push gradually above freezing making farther acceleration less likely.
Only 1 problem with your map. Though not a glacier, the northern and western counties won’t warm as much as the central/southern/eastern counties. There’s a still a snowpack to get through. Temps tomorrow will be the deciding factor IMO. |
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 20, 2024 11:36:37 GMT -6
I am not looking forward to Monday at all, actually dreading it.
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Post by John G -west belleville on Jan 20, 2024 11:41:51 GMT -6
3km NAM looks icy most of the day Monday...has the changeover late afternoon/evening but the cold ground may prolong the surface glazing. The good news is that roadways are caked with chemicals. It won't take much to get those chemicals washed off or diluted |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 20, 2024 11:50:01 GMT -6
The potential for some sleet at the onset... even for only a few minutes is not good because that will give an added cold surface for the light freezing rain/drizzle to adhere to..while maintaining the cold surface temperatures. Also not working in our favor that this begins before sunrise. If this were starting after 10am, I would be much less concerned...but a pre-dawn start makes this a more potent little set-up.
I don't see anyone reaching warning level ice. But I do think some could push close to 0.2" level (warning being 0.25" or greater) I doubt we see anything major in terms of power outages, tree damage. That being said, tree limbs will bend and power lines will sag a bit for sure with this kind of icing. If nothing changes, I expect a slew of school closings by Sunday evening ahead of the storm. Schools might flex a little with snow and cold... but they have little tolerance for ice.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 20, 2024 12:16:30 GMT -6
The more I look at Monday the more I get that “uh oh” feeling
I’d wager almost every school in the area will be closed Monday
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Post by cozpregon on Jan 20, 2024 12:18:15 GMT -6
Warm advection events usually come in quicker than models think. TDs into the single digits well into Texas/ low wet bulbs make me think the warm up will be slow. Eventually warm droplets will be the key to bring us above freezing.
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Jan 20, 2024 14:46:49 GMT -6
Oh, sure when we're getting snow and we don't want temperatures to rise then they go above freezing in a hurry. But when we're getting ice and we want them to rise that's when they take their sweet time going above freezing.
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Post by thechaser on Jan 20, 2024 15:58:43 GMT -6
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 20, 2024 19:30:54 GMT -6
Latest probabilities from the WPC has the metro at a 60% chance for > 0.10” of ice and a 20% chance for > 0.25” of ice
Highest probabilities are in south central MO where there is a 50-60% chance of > 0.25” of ice
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Post by ndolan387 on Jan 20, 2024 19:43:39 GMT -6
00z NAM is about to come out! Drum roll. Is it going to be extra icy or dry as a bone? Flip a coin lol. Though seriously Mon morning is looking very icy!
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Post by thechaser on Jan 20, 2024 19:48:21 GMT -6
0z HRRR FRAM is a solid .10-.20" across the metro area, some isolated 0.25" totals in there. Lines up well with the other models.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 20, 2024 19:49:05 GMT -6
Gonna be another cold night...already down to 7* with good radiational cooling conditions under the ridge axis.
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bfsmith81
Wishcaster
Edwardsville, IL
Posts: 150 
Snowfall Events: Winter of 2023-2024:
01/05/24-1/06/24: 2.5" (Melted almost immediately)
01/12/24-1/13/24: 0.25"
01/15/24: 0.75"
01/18/24-01/19/24: 0.5"
02/16/24: 4.25"
Winter of 2023-2024 Total So Far: 8.25"
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Post by bfsmith81 on Jan 20, 2024 19:56:18 GMT -6
Hoboy... latest HRRR point forecast for my location has us with 0.36" of freezing rain by 3pm on Monday (you can't see my cursor in the screenshot but it's centered over Edwardsville, IL). Monday is going to be nasty.  |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 20, 2024 20:16:21 GMT -6
It may not be the classic path for dry air advection, but tge southerly winds Monday AM are advecting low level Td's just over 10f in from the south. The Td increase along I-44 is a result of top-down saturation. So as long as the Td being piped in from the south is significantly lower than freezing... evap cooling will be maintained... until warm drops finally overwhelm the process.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 20, 2024 20:44:14 GMT -6
Box sounding off the NAM over the metro Monday morning Looks ripe for freezing drizzle/rain  |
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Post by ndolan387 on Jan 20, 2024 22:07:35 GMT -6
Yeah 00z NAM would support sleet at the very beginning IMO before going to freezing drizzle or light freezing rain. The lower precip amounts (freezing drizzle) on the front end of the precip is going to lead to good ice accretion quickly with the very cold ground temps. Especially since it will be dark outside! All the points that Chris, coz, Btrn, Tilawn, myself, etc. were talking about.
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Post by ndolan387 on Jan 20, 2024 22:11:13 GMT -6
After the warmup next week, all teleconnections are screaming normal weather for the next 2 weeks or so. It does look like all ensembles attempt to re-establish the ridge over AK, but all fail to do so. That’s a change from earlier this week where that was actually achieved. That said, it can obviously change. AO is trending neutral, as well as NAO and PNA. MJO is moving into neutral territory as well but exiting neutral in Phase 8, which is a cold phase for us. Fingers crossed! Dave Murray is thinking a see saw pattern for 2-3 weeks which would then avg to normal weather. Chris would call it a dipsee doodle weather pattern. It's hard to stay zonal for 2 weeks in the winter at 38-40* ish N latitude. I think Dave may be right. He's the long range veteran. |
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Post by maddogchief on Jan 20, 2024 23:22:32 GMT -6
After the warmup next week, all teleconnections are screaming normal weather for the next 2 weeks or so. It does look like all ensembles attempt to re-establish the ridge over AK, but all fail to do so. That’s a change from earlier this week where that was actually achieved. That said, it can obviously change. AO is trending neutral, as well as NAO and PNA. MJO is moving into neutral territory as well but exiting neutral in Phase 8, which is a cold phase for us. Fingers crossed! Dave Murray is thinking a see saw pattern for 2-3 weeks which would then avg to normal weather. Chris would call it a dipsee doodle weather pattern. It's hard to stay zonal for 2 weeks in the winter at 38-40* ish N latitude. I think Dave may be right. He's the long range veteran. One of these days I’ll pay for the model suite products. I really like using the EPO, but I can’t seem to find it NOT behind a paywall. Euro weeklies are good as well, though not nearly as accurate as they were. I don’t want a deep freeze, but we need enough of a ridge to shut the Pacific off. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 21, 2024 0:25:57 GMT -6
The Euro has a significant ice storm for southern and eastern MO
That seems concerning
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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 21, 2024 3:11:33 GMT -6
WWA posted
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PMCST MONDAY...
* WHAT...Freezing rain expected. Total ice accumulations up to one tenth of an inch.
* WHERE...Portions of south central, southwest, and west central Illinois and central, east central, northeast, and southeast Missouri.
* WHEN...From midnight tonight to 6 PM CST Monday.
* IMPACTS...Difficult travel conditions are possible. Icy conditions are likely to impact the Monday morning commute and could impact the evening commute as well. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Slow down and use caution while traveling.
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Jan 21, 2024 3:46:29 GMT -6
The Euro has a significant ice storm for southern and eastern MO That seems concerning Ya I seen that. But wondered if it is to be believed. Guess anything is possible. |
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Post by ndolan387 on Jan 21, 2024 7:27:26 GMT -6
Supposed to get to 32*-34* and the sun will be out with increasing coulds. Winds gusting to 20-25mph out of the S. This will try to warm up some areas relatively speaking. Wouldn’t be surprised if we pop up above freezing today even with increasing clouds. The sun angle still doesn't hit a lot of areas in Jan. The warm air advection was underestimated on Wed. It won't matter in the big picture bc the ground is an icebox. NWS point forecast is conservative with the ice saying we switch to all rain after 10am. We all know switching to all rain is a slow and painful process. It doesn't happen quickly with very cold ground temps and low Tds like Chris and others have mentioned. Freezing rain likes to hang on longer at least climatology speaking. Winter Weather Advisory is up for up to 0.1" of ice which cardsnweather already posted. I think some areas will get more than 0.1" of glazing.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 21, 2024 7:44:45 GMT -6
It may not be the classic path for dry air advection, but tge southerly winds Monday AM are advecting low level Td's just over 10f in from the south. The Td increase along I-44 is a result of top-down saturation. So as long as the Td being piped in from the south is significantly lower than freezing... evap cooling will be maintained... until warm drops finally overwhelm the process. Yeah, surface wetbulbs are near freezing all the way to the Gulf 12z Mon...it's going to take some time to warm despite the S/SE flow. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 21, 2024 7:54:59 GMT -6
The Euro has a significant ice storm for southern and eastern MO That seems concerning Yeah, it doesn't warm surface temps above freezing until Tues AM...hopefully that doesn't verify or it'll be a mess. This is far from a classic ice storm setup, but the antecedent deep cold and frozen ground can really make the temp rise stubborn. |
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