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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 19, 2024 12:58:12 GMT -6
We will probably see a brief period of ici g Sunday night or Monday morning. Shouldn't last long. But timing could cause issues for morning commute.
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Post by Labrat-O'Fallon IL on Jan 19, 2024 14:07:21 GMT -6
One of my coworkers who lives in southern Kentucky said the gutters on the back of her house just fell off due to snow and ice. Whoops.
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Jan 19, 2024 16:02:03 GMT -6
We have rain in the forecast for a week straight next week in January….. after 10 days of Artic air ….. only around here will that happen lol
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 19, 2024 16:56:42 GMT -6
We have rain in the forecast for a week straight next week in January….. after 10 days of Artic air ….. only around here will that happen lol I get your point, but the same thing is definitely happening here in Chicago and up into southern Wisconsin. It is more regional than just the viewing area, I promise |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 19, 2024 17:34:32 GMT -6
The upcoming pattern looks similar to what we had in December
Looks like winter is going back in hiding for much of the US
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Post by chowderhead54 on Jan 19, 2024 17:58:37 GMT -6
The upcoming pattern looks similar to what we had in December Looks like winter is going back in hiding for much of the US Let's hope that Mid-February, can be a repeat of Mid January but with alot more Snow..or at least some..lol hoping a PV stretch or SSW hits but I think the stretch is more in play from what I have read. |
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Post by ndolan387 on Jan 19, 2024 20:47:37 GMT -6
The upcoming pattern looks similar to what we had in December Looks like winter is going back in hiding for much of the US If you believe in the LRC then yeah the upcoming pattern will be a similar but different pattern than we had earlier in Dec. Hoping we get a rare zonal system or a sneaky clipper. That would make the break in winter weather feel less long. I am looking actually forward to a little break from following 1 inch snow systems! |
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Post by maddogchief on Jan 19, 2024 20:55:27 GMT -6
The upcoming pattern looks similar to what we had in December Looks like winter is going back in hiding for much of the US Eh, I don’t think it will be as “torchy” as December. Maybe down this way, but I think crazy warmth will stay mainly south of I-80 for the most part. I say that, but the most ugly part of the warmth will be the overnight temps. Overnight melting absolutely zaps a snowpack. Not much of a diurnal swing the next week. |
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Post by ndolan387 on Jan 19, 2024 21:27:16 GMT -6
The upcoming pattern looks similar to what we had in December Looks like winter is going back in hiding for much of the US Eh, I don’t think it will be as “torchy” as December. Maybe down this way, but I think crazy warmth will stay mainly south of I-80 for the most part. I say that, but the most ugly part of the warmth will be the overnight temps. Overnight melting absolutely zaps a snowpack. Not much of a diurnal swing the next week. Similar, but different pattern based upon the change in seasons. Dec is different than late Jan for STL climatology speaking. As Gary Lezak (LRC) likes to mention. |
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Post by ndolan387 on Jan 19, 2024 21:54:26 GMT -6
I know some on here don't truly believe in the LRC. I don't follow it anymore. His website changed and it turned me away. I think some of his points though are valid! We all know long range forecasts are a big gamble.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 19, 2024 22:05:18 GMT -6
Interesting plume of clouds and even very light radar returns that has its origins from the Callaway nuclear plant.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 19, 2024 22:08:40 GMT -6
As for the upcoming warmup... it doesn't concern me at all. It's the January thaw and there is nothing unusual about that. It is hard to keep it this cold for this long without a sizeable warm-up afterwards.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 19, 2024 22:29:06 GMT -6
00z gfs with a monumental flip in output for next weekend.
It has brought the cold back to our doorstep and has storms around.
Big difference as expected, is the cold is more east based which should prevent cutters and open the door to clippers.
Interesting run, let’s see if it is the start of a trend.
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Post by cozpregon on Jan 19, 2024 22:38:28 GMT -6
NAM would be a mess into the afternoon on Monday
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Post by ndolan387 on Jan 19, 2024 22:38:41 GMT -6
Interesting plume of clouds and even very light radar returns that has its origins from the Callaway nuclear plant. Also, I noticed this evening after sunset before it got dark the Labadie smoke/steam stacks had formed clouds in the air! |
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Post by ndolan387 on Jan 19, 2024 22:40:58 GMT -6
NAM would be a mess into the afternoon on Monday Yeah it has a freezing drizzle/light freezing rain look! Better ice accretion. |
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Post by amstilost on Jan 20, 2024 0:23:04 GMT -6
00z gfs with a monumental flip in output for next weekend. It has brought the cold back to our doorstep and has storms around. Big difference as expected, is the cold is more east based which should prevent cutters and open the door to clippers. Interesting run, let’s see if it is the start of a trend. I wanted to check if anyone else had posted this. Seems like 'monumental flip' is not an overstatement either. We can hope. |
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Post by cozpregon on Jan 20, 2024 2:17:39 GMT -6
Thinking we are underestimating Monday.
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Post by Tilawn on Jan 20, 2024 3:11:11 GMT -6
NAM would be a mess into the afternoon on Monday Yeah it has a freezing drizzle/light freezing rain look! Better ice accretion. Falling on deep frozen ground. I don’t see even if temps get above freezing that icing at ground level won’t still be an issue for several hours, especially if the rate of precipitation is light and not warm rain drops. |
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Post by Tilawn on Jan 20, 2024 3:12:15 GMT -6
Thinking we are underestimating Monday. This has 2016 written all over it and IMO potentially worse then it was then. |
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Post by REB on Jan 20, 2024 7:24:51 GMT -6
Thinking we are underestimating Monday. This has 2016 written all over it and IMO potentially worse than it was then. That is an event I do not want to repeat. |
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 20, 2024 7:43:02 GMT -6
0.0 this morning.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 20, 2024 8:17:49 GMT -6
Yeah, but that is your snow accumulation every morning |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 20, 2024 8:35:37 GMT -6
Thinking we are underestimating Monday. The cold ground is definitely a wild card. I brought in firewood last night and the ground was like marble. |
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Post by REB on Jan 20, 2024 8:55:13 GMT -6
This has 2016 written all over it and IMO potentially worse than it was then. That is an event I do not want to repeat. oops wrong year |
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 20, 2024 9:02:21 GMT -6
Some of the new Meso models keep us at around freezing until Monday afternoon possibly early evening on Monday especially away from the city and leeside of the American Bottom/Bluffs in Illinois. Might get a couple tenths of a glaze before it warms up later in the evening. FV3 even starts us out as sleet/FZRA mix for the first couple hours before switching to a FZRA/RA mix. Probably will get some kind of headline out of this. Probably not a warning due to the gradually warming temps.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 20, 2024 9:05:15 GMT -6
The pattern models show towards next weekend is mildly interesting...looks like there could be some cold air getting back into the picture with a southern stream wave ejecting out. And they are trending cooler towards month's end after this upcoming mild spell/thaw.
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Post by ndolan387 on Jan 20, 2024 9:16:45 GMT -6
Yeah it has a freezing drizzle/light freezing rain look! Better ice accretion. Falling on deep frozen ground. I don’t see even if temps get above freezing that icing at ground level won’t still be an issue for several hours, especially if the rate of precipitation is light and not warm rain drops. I agree, freezing rain is the one thing you don't ever want to downplay! Yeah smaller drops will keep the ground colder longer. Start time on Mon is crucial. If precip starts overnight after 12am Mon then it's going to be even more icy. If precip holds off till late morning Mon then less ice. |
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Post by ndolan387 on Jan 20, 2024 9:19:41 GMT -6
Models seem like they are hanging onto the cold air longer. 12z HRRR looks icy with freezing drizzle starting after 12am Mon.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 20, 2024 9:22:50 GMT -6
Possible area for greatest concern of ice acceleration inside Magenta area. Amounts look around 0.1" or less outside the area, but inside of it could exceed 0.1" especially if colder solutions verify. Looks like it should stay under a quarter inch as intensity increases and temps push gradually above freezing making farther acceleration less likely.
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