steve
Wishcaster
Wentzville, Mo
Posts: 228 
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Post by steve on Jan 21, 2024 12:42:55 GMT -6
This discussion our winters are so much different than past is very overblown and old. We will and always have had winters with seesaw temps. Yes the few have been warmer but nothing historically that hasn’t happened prior. We will agree to disagree on that That’s fine, but I’m curious if they’re so different than past, when did they changed and provide the data. Temps, snowfall, etc... |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 21, 2024 12:44:06 GMT -6
I’m supposed to hit the road for southeast Michigan tomorrow morning at 3-4. Starting to get concerned now…
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 21, 2024 12:45:13 GMT -6
I know people have mentioned surface Temps not being above freezing even if air Temps go above because of the cold we've seen. But wouldn't warmer drops and the somewhat warmer air today negate that?
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 21, 2024 12:45:55 GMT -6
I’m supposed to hit the road for southeast Michigan tomorrow morning at 3-4. Starting to get concerned now… I'm planning on calling off work tomorrow. I don't mind driving in the snow, I actually enjoy it. But I don't mess with glaze ice. |
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 21, 2024 13:20:06 GMT -6
Im actually supprised I am at 25.8 right now, we might get to 30 to 32, but befor the thick cloud I could see us falling to 18 to 24 before we warm to 27 by sunrise.
Good questions snowman.
My lazer thermometer on the blacktop is 22, the concrete is 19.
I could see it getting to 30 and 26 Respectfully by 3 p.m. but would think the frozen ground would fall off steadily after sunset until rain starts.
Than I always Wonder how quick does it take for the warm drops to actually get the surface above freezing.
This is more of a question for the pros
Also I would think extreme wet bulbing is a major factor as well because our dewpoint is still 6 to 9.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 21, 2024 13:21:03 GMT -6
I’m supposed to hit the road for southeast Michigan tomorrow morning at 3-4. Starting to get concerned now… I'm planning on calling off work tomorrow. I don't mind driving in the snow, I actually enjoy it. But I don't mess with glaze ice. That's the same with me. I LOVE driving in the snow... I find it to be peaceful (more so when I'm the only one out lol.) |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 21, 2024 13:21:52 GMT -6
Im actually supprised I am at 25.8 right now, we might get to 30 to 32, but befor the thick cloud I could see us falling to 18 to 24nbefore we warm to 27 by sunrise. Good questions snowman. My lazer thermometer on the blacktop is 22, the concrete is 19. I could see it getting to 30 and 26 Respectfully by 3 p.m. but would think the frozen ground would fall off steadily after sunset until.rain starts. Than I always Wonder how quick does it take or the warm drops to actually get the surface above freezing. This is more of a question for the pros Not long... you only need to warm the very top little bit. |
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 21, 2024 13:22:57 GMT -6
Thank you Chris, I hope the ice threat is over very quickly then in the A.m.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 21, 2024 13:30:26 GMT -6
We will agree to disagree on that That’s fine, but I’m curious if they’re so different than past, when did they changed and provide the data. Temps, snowfall, etc... I posted a couple maps in the Climate Change thread on here. I didn’t want to clog this post with an ice event coming up. |
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Post by thechaser on Jan 21, 2024 14:01:11 GMT -6
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Post by Spaz(Wrestlerdude) on Jan 21, 2024 14:04:08 GMT -6
Just noticed the WWA was updated to include a burst of sleet with accumulation possible that would be a game changer for road conditions in the morning.
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Post by Spaz(Wrestlerdude) on Jan 21, 2024 14:10:09 GMT -6
Nam3k trying to bring freezing rain through tomorrow night too. Seems unlikely but interesting none the less.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 21, 2024 14:17:22 GMT -6
Nam3k trying to bring freezing rain through tomorrow night too. Seems unlikely but interesting none the less. Both the 18z NAM and Hi-res NAM FRAM maps print out warning levels of ice up 44 into the metro. Certainly catches your attention |
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Post by Spaz(Wrestlerdude) on Jan 21, 2024 14:21:38 GMT -6
Nam3k trying to bring freezing rain through tomorrow night too. Seems unlikely but interesting none the less. Both the 18z NAM and Hi-res NAM FRAM maps print out warning levels of ice up 44 into the metro. Certainly catches your attention Mainly that .72 on the 18z. Looks like it’s assuming the ice goes until about 7-and the bulk falls with those higher numbers. I’m most interested to how the sleet plays into it. They will really affect how roads are. My gut says the Nam is over estimating the tail end with the warmer 30-31 accretion. |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 21, 2024 14:28:44 GMT -6
Yeah, a lot is falling in a 3 hour period when temps are borderline.
Better off ignoring that part in my opinion.
It just makes the numbers look more impressive than what the reality will be.
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Post by chowderhead54 on Jan 21, 2024 14:34:06 GMT -6
Nam3k trying to bring freezing rain through tomorrow night too. Seems unlikely but interesting none the less. Both the 18z NAM and Hi-res NAM FRAM maps print out warning levels of ice up 44 into the metro. Certainly catches your attention I know we do not have the typical HP in position to pump low level cold antecedent air in..but with a light East/Southeast drift a low levels could that be enough.ironically coming from areas of snow cover to keep the cold locked in lower levels than the "typical" set-up under these forecasted conditions?? Leave that one for the experts..but curious since Wky,and west tenn..still have snow cover I 🤔 |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 21, 2024 14:34:35 GMT -6
The thing is though, the FRAM charts should take into consideration those borderline icing conditions and significantly lower the accretion numbers. The FRAM charts from most models are still showing some pretty beefy icing.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 21, 2024 14:41:12 GMT -6
The thing is though, the FRAM charts should take into consideration those borderline icing conditions and significantly lower the accretion numbers. The FRAM charts from most models are still showing some pretty beefy icing. I’m skeptical the formula is working correctly, but certainly worth watching closely. |
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Post by MakeitRain on Jan 21, 2024 14:51:54 GMT -6
It’s starting to look very interesting.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 21, 2024 14:52:46 GMT -6
Last few runs of the NBM have shown a steady uptrend in icing totals around here  |
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Post by Spaz(Wrestlerdude) on Jan 21, 2024 14:58:37 GMT -6
Yeah, a lot is falling in a 3 hour period when temps are borderline. Better off ignoring that part in my opinion. It just makes the numbers look more impressive than what the reality will be. One thing we have learned is to not ignore, just don’t count on. Crazier things have happened. |
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Post by Labrat-O'Fallon IL on Jan 21, 2024 15:01:53 GMT -6
Really hoping my medical appointment cancels tomorrow, so I don't get charged if I have to cancel. Mom is going to postpone her pre-op appointment. Not messing with ice.
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Post by maddogchief on Jan 21, 2024 15:51:45 GMT -6
We will agree to disagree on that That’s fine, but I’m curious if they’re so different than past, when did they changed and provide the data. Temps, snowfall, etc... Many on here have an unconscious bias (myself included) that is essentially that our winters are something out of a Christmas movie or something. Add to it a stretch of absolutely amazing winters in the later part of the 70s and 80s, and that further reinforces an unrealistic idea of what winters are around these parts. |
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Jan 21, 2024 16:19:34 GMT -6
Seems like the lastest data output wants to keep the heavier right along I-44. Either way, all of the STL area is in trouble tomorrow.
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Post by John G -west belleville on Jan 21, 2024 16:21:36 GMT -6
E learning day announcement coming for Belleville area districts.
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Post by Spaz(Wrestlerdude) on Jan 21, 2024 16:27:28 GMT -6
well NWS has made a stealthy but significant increase for my point forecast, showing upto 0.1 and up to an additional .3 tomorrow during the day.
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Post by amstilost on Jan 21, 2024 17:27:43 GMT -6
The 12z models are all pretty consistent qpf wise IMBY, 7 miles west of De Soto. Totals out 36 hrs ending at 0z Monday evening range from .27 to .54" of the major global models. One differencce seemed to be on the 3K Nam no precip IMBY until 10am. That could make a big difference.
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Post by ndolan387 on Jan 21, 2024 18:16:03 GMT -6
Looks like Central and South Central Illinois is the prime zone for the most icing. Those >0.25" outputs seem more possible NE of the STL metro! Made it to 32* at KSUS (barely) and KSTL. A little colder than I thought. Basically all the day below freezing! Also, if you go step on the ground it's hard as a rock. It's an ice box. The period of sleet at the onset will happen. The first 2-3 hrs maybe more, the rain drops (the freezing drizzle and freezing rain) will all go toward freezing on the surface and none of the moisture will get absorbed into the ground. Eventually the drops will absorb into the ground as they get bigger and warmer! Overtime, the more that happens then our ice accretion will stop (no more ice build up) later Mon!
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Post by Spaz(Wrestlerdude) on Jan 21, 2024 18:21:28 GMT -6
Looks like Central and South Central Illinois is the prime zone for the most icing. Those >0.25" outputs seem more possible NE of the STL metro! Made it to 32* at KSUS (barely) and KSTL. A little colder than I thought. Basically all the day below freezing! Also, if you go step on the ground it's hard as a rock. It's an ice box. The period of sleet at the onset. The first 2-3 hrs maybe more, the rain drops (the freezing drizzle and freezing rain) will all go toward freezing on the surface and none of the moisture will get absorbed into the ground. Eventually some of the drops will absorb into the ground. yes, how ever the impact of .25>.5 is very different when sleet makes the ground cold compared to tree limbs falling. still high impact but manageable still. |
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Post by ndolan387 on Jan 21, 2024 18:27:51 GMT -6
Looks like Central and South Central Illinois is the prime zone for the most icing. Those >0.25" outputs seem more possible NE of the STL metro! Made it to 32* at KSUS (barely) and KSTL. A little colder than I thought. Basically all the day below freezing! Also, if you go step on the ground it's hard as a rock. It's an ice box. The period of sleet at the onset. The first 2-3 hrs maybe more, the rain drops (the freezing drizzle and freezing rain) will all go toward freezing on the surface and none of the moisture will get absorbed into the ground. Eventually some of the drops will absorb into the ground. yes, how ever the impact of .25>.5 is very different when sleet makes the ground cold compared to tree limbs falling. still high impact but manageable still. I think the period of sleet at the onset is going to make this a high impact storm! Ice isn't manageable. Regardless of 0.1" or 0.20", etc. Any amount of ice is dangerous! You always want to be safe rather than sorry with ice! |
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