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Post by Spaz(Wrestlerdude) on Jan 21, 2024 18:31:55 GMT -6
yes, how ever the impact of .25>.5 is very different when sleet makes the ground cold compared to tree limbs falling. still high impact but manageable still. I think the period of sleet at the onset is going to make this a high impact storm! Regardless of 0.1" or 0.20", etc. Any amount of ice is dangerous! You always want to be safe rather than sorry with ice! Yes, however roads impassable vs mass power outage. We can handle a day of roads being an issue followed by rain, extended power outages can be far more impactful. |
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Post by mchafin on Jan 21, 2024 18:37:20 GMT -6
I guess it’s just par for the course that this storm spotted several days ago to have ice, stayed ice. That if this was snow spotted a few days ago, it would’ve already turned the rain, or cut north leaving us dry. I do wish the ice would stay away though.
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Post by Spaz(Wrestlerdude) on Jan 21, 2024 18:49:07 GMT -6
yes, how ever the impact of .25>.5 is very different when sleet makes the ground cold compared to tree limbs falling. still high impact but manageable still. I think the period of sleet at the onset is going to make this a high impact storm! Ice isn't manageable. Regardless of 0.1" or 0.20", etc. Any amount of ice is dangerous! You always want to be safe rather than sorry with ice! not saying it wont be, im just saying wont be a typical .5 ice storm. roads wont care about that much, usually .5 is when you have to talk about power outages. between recent storms and ambient temps we will likely dodge a bullet. |
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Post by ndolan387 on Jan 21, 2024 18:51:14 GMT -6
I guess it’s just par for the course that this storm spotted several days ago to have ice, stayed ice. That if this was snow spotted a few days ago, it would’ve already turned the rain, or cut north leaving us dry. I do wish the ice would stay away though. Haha! Now we have to see what happens. Everyone stay safe out there after 12am tonight! |
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steve
Wishcaster
Wentzville, Mo
Posts: 228 
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Post by steve on Jan 21, 2024 19:15:04 GMT -6
Sitting at 30 degrees. Temps haven’t dropped yet after sunset
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 21, 2024 19:16:49 GMT -6
Temp 26, they will likely drop with wet bulbing
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 21, 2024 19:17:44 GMT -6
lol
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 21, 2024 19:18:32 GMT -6
Starting to get into HRRR range.
Looks like about 0.1 of ice with temps in the 27-29 range for the immediate STL area. Half of it falling with the sun down.
That will be impactful.
After that, I think things will improve rather quickly personally.
There will be some heavier pockets to the south and east to keep an eye on for additional impacts.
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 21, 2024 19:18:40 GMT -6
Temp is about right where it was forecast
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 21, 2024 19:31:37 GMT -6
00Z HRRR looks very icy for the Metro...has 12+ solid hours of rain falling with temps below freezing, all of it below 30* for the Metro and points E/NE
Hopefully the warm up commences by early afternoon or it could get dicey with power outage potential. I have my doubts about the cold air hanging on that long with the S flow and warm droplets...but we'll see how it goes.
Everybody stay safe out there!
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 21, 2024 19:56:44 GMT -6
00z nam basically has a doughnut around STL tomorrow morning.
Very minimal ice for St Charles/St Louis area through noon tomorrow on that run.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 21, 2024 19:57:09 GMT -6
Then there is the 00z NAM which is nearly bone dry through 10am.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 21, 2024 19:58:33 GMT -6
Then there is the 00z NAM which is nearly bone dry through 10am. 00z NAM3k is almost bone dry too. |
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 21, 2024 20:00:21 GMT -6
Lets hope the nam is correct
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 21, 2024 20:05:10 GMT -6
Which of course it won't... Just how our luck rolls. Seems like Ice, yeah, we'll cash in on that. A decent snowstorm? Perhaps when heck freezes over. Outside of the NAM, seems like this just keeps on getting worse and worse looking the closer it gets with cooler temps, lasting at or below freezing longer, and or greater QPF. Perhaps the NAM will pull a win, but with so much moisture pulling north from the gulf that seems doubtful, best hope is that it's heavier so that the droplets warm the air and ground quicker and no sleet to start otherwise it's gonna get gnarly fast even if it does start improving by mid to late afternoon tomorrow.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 21, 2024 20:08:20 GMT -6
Speaking of sleet... The FV3 hits us pretty good with moderate sleet for a few hours before switching to a sleet/FZRA mix, then several hours of freezing rain. It's stubborn to warm area along and north of I-70/I-64. Same on the HRRR as well.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 21, 2024 20:10:14 GMT -6
Freezing Drizzle/Rain pings starting to come in from far southwest Missouri.
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Post by thechaser on Jan 21, 2024 20:12:46 GMT -6
Looks like the NAM has a round in the afternoon with totals of .10-.20".
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 21, 2024 20:13:41 GMT -6
Freezing Drizzle/Rain pings starting to come in from far southwest Missouri. The NAMs do look to dry compared to current observations. The 3km NAM has nothing falling in Tulsa until 11-12 tonight and they have already had a few hours of freezing drizzle/rain. |
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gonefishin - WashMO
Junior Forecaster
Washington, Franklin County, MO
Posts: 491
Snowfall Events: 2013-2014: A lot!
2014-2015: If you forecast it, it will come!
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Post by gonefishin - WashMO on Jan 21, 2024 20:16:04 GMT -6
Not looking at models at this point. It’s a now-cast event.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 21, 2024 20:18:29 GMT -6
Got my salts down as my mother requested... For what good it's gonna do.
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Jan 21, 2024 20:22:32 GMT -6
Then there is the 00z NAM which is nearly bone dry through 10am. 00z NAM3k is almost bone dry too. So it's not just snow that leaves St. Louis out in the cold? |
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Post by mchafin on Jan 21, 2024 20:26:48 GMT -6
The big StL County districts look like they are gonna hold off till 04:00 to make the call. My kids are ticked “I have to go to bed early?” Yup. You do, like I had to do back in the day.
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 21, 2024 20:29:55 GMT -6
Big St.Charles districts waiting too
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 21, 2024 20:35:49 GMT -6
Just as I said that Fort Zumwalt went with remote learning lol
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Jan 21, 2024 20:40:35 GMT -6
Mascoutah called off already. Which I am not used to. The usually wait until the morning.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 21, 2024 20:48:52 GMT -6
00z NBM  |
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 21, 2024 20:49:10 GMT -6
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 21, 2024 21:01:01 GMT -6
That's funny, sad, and all true lol. |
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Post by mchafin on Jan 21, 2024 21:01:06 GMT -6
Any ground truth in central-Missouri?
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