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Post by bdgwx on Jan 23, 2024 6:21:10 GMT -6
We've nickel and dimed our way to 6.1" at the airport.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 23, 2024 6:38:54 GMT -6
I am shocked to wake up to a snow day in Wentzville. Apparently there is still ice on the roads in the western part of the district. Our closure notice also mentioned a shortage of transportation staff due to many of them coming from western counties. I can say, in warrenton and possibly wright city neighborhoid roads are still icy. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 23, 2024 6:56:38 GMT -6
35* and still some icy spots on untreated backroads out here
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Post by REB on Jan 23, 2024 7:19:11 GMT -6
I outgrew my tshirt, lol. Need another one, preferably not a light color. Didn't you make or were part of the process? I could totally be wrong?? I think it was our Marissa guys. |
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Post by goosetalk - Troy, MO on Jan 23, 2024 7:26:11 GMT -6
Yup, my neighborhood in Troy Mo still has ice on driveways and sidewalks and some on the roads.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 23, 2024 7:34:07 GMT -6
Neighborhood was straight ice this morning. Roads were icy, but not as bad as the neighborhood.
Train platform was ridiculous.
Alas, nothing cancelled so hopefully no fire truck situations up here in Chicago this morning.
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Post by Tilawn on Jan 23, 2024 8:45:29 GMT -6
Ice is still an issue due to frost coming out of the ground. And since the rain stopped there is no water “flowing” across the pavement which now allows the moisture that is present to freeze as the frost hits it from below.
Gravel roads/driveways/lots have been horrible the duration of the storm and still in bad shape around here. The Washington and Union school districts buses operate of of the same hub, they relocated this past summer to a larger place kind of on the country and everything is all rocked. Nothing asphalted or concrete so this morning it was a solid sheet of ice yet.
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Jan 23, 2024 8:54:57 GMT -6
I've got sunshine. I didn't expect that.
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 23, 2024 8:56:13 GMT -6
Yes, nice bright sun and 43 degrees. Ice is almost all melted
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 23, 2024 9:22:59 GMT -6
Aaannnddd back to muddy paws and squishy yards. Gross.
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Post by ndolan387 on Jan 23, 2024 10:15:51 GMT -6
12z GFS is trying to output deformation rain changing to digital wet sloppy snow Sat evening into 12am Sun. 1) This is something we would get excited about in November. 2) It would probably be 5 flakes. 3) It's one model run so it doesn't mean anything. 4) 850mb temperatures aren't cold enough or borderline. 5) Anytime we have a borderline setup we know we usually get hose with rain.
All kidding aside, I think the Feb 4th-8th ish timeframe looks like our next chance at a bigger storm. Where the southern and northern branch have a chance to work together. Maybe overrunning type event if we get luckily.
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Post by mosue56 on Jan 23, 2024 10:40:38 GMT -6
Chris was right on being worried about this ice event after the cold wore off. Good job!
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Post by maddogchief on Jan 23, 2024 10:46:30 GMT -6
12z GFS is trying to output deformation rain changing to digital wet sloppy snow Sat evening into 12am Sun. 1) This is something we would get excited about in November. 2) It would probably be 5 flakes. 3) It's one model run so it doesn't mean anything. 4) 850mb temperatures aren't cold enough or borderline. 5) Anytime we have a borderline setup we know we usually get hose with rain. All kidding aside, I think the Feb 4th-8th ish timeframe looks like our next chance at a bigger storm. Where the southern and northern branch have a chance to work together. Maybe overrunning type event if we get luckily. I’d say later this week/weekend we start to see a cooler trend long range for the models. We shall see. It is not going to snow this weekend. Not even a chance. 0% Haven’t heard anything about the little boy lately. I guess he’s dead? This year? Also haven’t heard much about his transition to the little girl. |
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 23, 2024 11:16:03 GMT -6
All i see is what was published last week. Boyis weakening, and some state of the art suggest a transition to neutral this spring, with increasing odds of girl after june. However i havent seen too much on the prospects of girl relative to how it was presented on this forum recently. My hunch is we end up neutral to weak in the winter next year.
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Post by amstilost on Jan 23, 2024 11:35:28 GMT -6
I know JB is pretty vocal about the SOI being in positive territory when we're in an El Nino. He said the only other time that happened was in the winter of 65-66 and he said that was a weak El Nino. I know this one started off being strong and then just kind of fell off. Have to wonder about his opinion of vulcanism that has caused the rapid warming west of Australia and South America. I was pretty sure I heard him say that we were headed toward a strong La Nina. He was basing his hurricane forecast on that, I thought, but I just went back and couldn't find it. I will keep looking for it.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 23, 2024 11:47:23 GMT -6
I know JB is pretty vocal about the SOI being in positive territory when we're in an El Nino. He said the only other time that happened was in the winter of 65-66 and he said that was a weak El Nino. I know this one started off being strong and then just kind of fell off. Have to wonder about his opinion of vulcanism that has caused the rapid warming west of Australia and South America. I was pretty sure I heard him say that we were headed toward a strong La Nina. He was basing his hurricane forecast on that, I thought, but I just went back and couldn't find it. I will keep looking for it. I'm thinking the same thing, A strong La Nina that starts east based and becomes central/Modoki based as Summer and Fall progress. Affects on us are questionable. Plus side a Positive PDO is likely then, so that might keep an active MCS pattern going here with northwest flow in place, but drought will be a huge issue to the west and south as well as northeast. Just depends on what the MJO does, but it La Nina holds into next winter we might be in for a treat... Might. |
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 23, 2024 12:16:55 GMT -6
Lol JB has gone completely insane in recent years. Unhinged nutter.
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Post by ComoEsJn on Jan 23, 2024 13:04:39 GMT -6
Lol JB has gone completely insane in recent years. Unhinged nutter. I hadn't looked at his stuff in years. I just jumped onto his "X" (Twitter) feed.........holy yikes. 1 part "model-worship forecasting", 3 parts "breathless political ranting". |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 23, 2024 15:06:06 GMT -6
EPS is an absolute roast fest for North America through early February. Looks like we’re gonna be waiting awhile for winter to return. Just a complete copy and paste from December.   |
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 23, 2024 15:21:56 GMT -6
Canadian and GFS ensembles are similar
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Jan 23, 2024 15:26:24 GMT -6
The fog is really getting thick out here…… I’m driving towards St.Libory and I’d say visibility is about a quarter of a mile
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Post by bdgwx on Jan 23, 2024 15:39:18 GMT -6
Yeah, I've lost any respect I had for JB. He has ties to Principia Scientific International which is an anti-science website run by John O'Sullivan whose past is questionable at best and disturbing at worst. Be advised...should you google for him you may find material that is NOT work or school appropriate and could get you into trouble if opened. If I were JB I'd have had my name removed from O'Sullivan's "select members" list long ago. But the thing that really threw up red flags for me were his numerous questionable (and frankly absurd in some cases) statements regarding the regarding weather/climate. There was an interview he did for the media back in 2011 in which statements were made indicating a gross misunderstanding of the two most basic and fundamental laws in all of science...the law of conservation of mass and the law of conservation of energy. He also denigrates the results of radiative transfer models (like the RRTM) likely without knowing that they are essential pieces of the GFS, ECMWF, etc. which forms the core of the services he offers on his own website. And his claims that scientists have been hiding a significant increase in volcanic activity since the 1980's defies credulity. And I almost forgot about that awful color table he used on his temperature charts...
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 23, 2024 15:51:52 GMT -6
We've got water flowing into the pond for the first time in probably 8 months.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 23, 2024 15:59:13 GMT -6
Canadian and GFS ensembles are similar They look better as you get into the 300+ hour range at least 😂 |
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 23, 2024 16:12:36 GMT -6
Canadian and GFS ensembles are similar They look better as you get into the 300+ hour range at least 😂 true lol |
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 23, 2024 16:13:44 GMT -6
Yeah, I've lost any respect I had for JB. He has ties to Principia Scientific International which is an anti-science website run by John O'Sullivan whose past is questionable at best and disturbing at worst. Be advised...should you google for him you may find material that is NOT work or school appropriate and could get you into trouble if opened. If I were JB I'd have had my name removed from O'Sullivan's "select members" list long ago. But the thing that really threw up red flags for me were his numerous questionable (and frankly absurd in some cases) statements regarding the regarding weather/climate. There was an interview he did for the media back in 2011 in which statements were made indicating a gross misunderstanding of the two most basic and fundamental laws in all of science...the law of conservation of mass and the law of conservation of energy. He also denigrates the results of radiative transfer models (like the RRTM) likely without knowing that they are essential pieces of the GFS, ECMWF, etc. which forms the core of the services he offers on his own website. And his claims that scientists have been hiding a significant increase in volcanic activity since the 1980's defies credulity. And I almost forgot about that awful color table he used on his temperature charts... agree to all. he has beclowned himself lol |
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Post by maddogchief on Jan 23, 2024 16:39:23 GMT -6
They look better as you get into the 300+ hour range at least 😂 true lol Was just going to say that. The roast fest is definitely prominent. Teleconnections are still looking good, if not better than yesterday for a cool down after the roast fest. |
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Post by let it snow11 on Jan 23, 2024 18:56:06 GMT -6
We've got water flowing into the pond for the first time in probably 8 months. That's great! It was dark when I got home from work this evening, but from the sound of the rain outside, and the saturated surface ground we currently have, I'll bet I can say the same. Much needed! |
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Post by bdgwx on Jan 23, 2024 21:44:58 GMT -6
In case anyone was anxiously awaiting the next cicada swarm then I have good news for you. Brood 19, the largest brood in Missouri, will swarm once again this year. Yay!
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 23, 2024 22:24:36 GMT -6
In case anyone was anxiously awaiting the next cicada swarm then I have good news for you. Brood 19, the largest brood in Missouri, will swarm once again this year. Yay! I've been seeing claims that two broods will overlap this year. Maybe it's just nostalgia, but I remember there being a lot more cicadas when I was younger. I actually believe that the insect population as a whole has seen a reduction over the years. Grasshoppers in particular seem much more absent than I remember in the past. |
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