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Post by ajd446 on Feb 2, 2024 7:22:47 GMT -6
We need a dense fog advisory. It is like a super fog in st.peters. I was not expecting that.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Feb 2, 2024 7:42:37 GMT -6
Well fwiw, the forecast has areas of fog bw 8 and 10.
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steve
Wishcaster
Wentzville, Mo
Posts: 228 
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Post by steve on Feb 2, 2024 16:14:31 GMT -6
Turned out to be a pretty raw day outside. Forecast high of sunny and 55 was a bit off. Out west took all the sun!
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 2, 2024 16:28:59 GMT -6
Turned out to be a pretty raw day outside. Forecast high of sunny and 55 was a bit off. Out west took all the sun! Classic backdoor front |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 2, 2024 16:53:42 GMT -6
The large-scale pattern ensembles are showing around/after the 10th is looking pretty cold with a -EPO/-NAO combo. Could be a pretty wintry stretch in the cards if that holds up.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 2, 2024 18:35:13 GMT -6
Turned out to be a pretty raw day outside. Forecast high of sunny and 55 was a bit off. Out west took all the sun! That's why I was going 50... and even that wasn't cold enough. Although today's high was actually 51... just after midnight. But My posted forecasts are "daytime" highs. I don't play that midnight high game because it is deceptive to viewers. |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 3, 2024 7:18:59 GMT -6
Starting to see some indications for a storm on or just after the Super Bowl.
That is the next period to keep an eye on.
Cold air should be around for a bit after that time too, so hopefully we can put it together for a couple weeks and then flip to sunny weather and baseball.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 3, 2024 8:57:43 GMT -6
Must have been some freezing fog overnight...there's ice on elevated surfaces out here.
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Post by Snowman99 on Feb 3, 2024 9:15:28 GMT -6
5.1 earthquake in Oklahoma City early this morning. Hide yo kids. End times.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 3, 2024 9:34:59 GMT -6
5.1 earthquake in Oklahoma City early this morning. Hide yo kids. End times. Meh, more fracking |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 3, 2024 9:37:55 GMT -6
Starting to see some indications for a storm on or just after the Super Bowl. That is the next period to keep an eye on. Cold air should be around for a bit after that time too, so hopefully we can put it together for a couple weeks and then flip to sunny weather and baseball. I guarantee we will have something to track the week of February 20th. That is the week the Mrs. and I are moving! No, not out of town... just a new house. But you can book it.. something to mess all those plans up because that's my luck! |
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Feb 3, 2024 10:05:26 GMT -6
Starting to see some indications for a storm on or just after the Super Bowl. That is the next period to keep an eye on. Cold air should be around for a bit after that time too, so hopefully we can put it together for a couple weeks and then flip to sunny weather and baseball. I guarantee we will have something to track the week of February 20th. That is the week the Mrs. and I are moving! No, not out of town... just a new house. But you can book it.. something to mess all those plans up because that's my luck! You sound like you have my luck lol…..good luck with the move!! |
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Post by Snowman99 on Feb 3, 2024 10:13:48 GMT -6
5.1 earthquake in Oklahoma City early this morning. Hide yo kids. End times. Meh, more fracking I know it's from fracking...but 5.1 is decent size.. OK had no quakes until fracking started there. Now they have a bunch. |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 3, 2024 10:27:56 GMT -6
I know it's from fracking...but 5.1 is decent size.. OK had no quakes until fracking started there. Now they have a bunch. Oklahoma might have the most consistently interesting/engaging weather/phenomena. Big ice storms, lots of severe weather, big snows, extreme cold, extreme heat, and the recent addition of earthquakes. Basically, one big sampler platter. |
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Post by mosue56 on Feb 3, 2024 10:29:45 GMT -6
Downsizing, Chris! Hope it goes well and the weather cooperates for you!
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 3, 2024 10:38:50 GMT -6
12z ggem just misses the phase on Super Bowl Sunday. Interesting look there. It has a good bolus of cold air behind it. Not overpowering, but sufficient for winter weather.
12z gfs is kind of sheared out and then has the core of the cold over the northeast.
By Monday night I think we will have some stuff to actually invest in.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 3, 2024 10:54:23 GMT -6
Models are showing another strat warming/stretching event developing around the 10th...the second half of the month could get interesting
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 3, 2024 11:05:39 GMT -6
Models are showing another strat warming/stretching event developing around the 10th...the second half of the month could get interesting Euro weeklies were showing a potential major SSW which would be unprecedented for back to back months. That was an outlier/sample of one and very unlikely. I much prefer a medium to high intensity stretch event given where we are in the season. I also like that things are definitely oriented more east this time, so I don’t expect a bunch of cutters. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 3, 2024 12:17:33 GMT -6
Models are showing another strat warming/stretching event developing around the 10th...the second half of the month could get interesting Euro weeklies were showing a potential major SSW which would be unprecedented for back to back months. That was an outlier/sample of one and very unlikely. I much prefer a medium to high intensity stretch event given where we are in the season. I also like that things are definitely oriented more east this time, so I don’t expect a bunch of cutters. Seems like the strat vortex has been abnormally weak this winter. If it gets disrupted/displaced, the brutally cold airmass in AK currently could get dislodged into the lower 48 later in the month. |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 3, 2024 12:41:22 GMT -6
Euro weeklies were showing a potential major SSW which would be unprecedented for back to back months. That was an outlier/sample of one and very unlikely. I much prefer a medium to high intensity stretch event given where we are in the season. I also like that things are definitely oriented more east this time, so I don’t expect a bunch of cutters. Seems like the strat vortex has been abnormally weak this winter. If it gets disrupted/displaced, the brutally cold airmass in AK currently could get dislodged into the lower 48 later in the month. I would be fine with a stretch and then a full disruption or displacement. The stretches are more reliable in my opinion. |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 4, 2024 0:52:53 GMT -6
00z euro with a Fat Tuesday blizzard lol
One can only dream of such a storm…
JK, it slides southeast and what should be a historic storm is more of a graze.
Even in fantasy land we are losing now 😂
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Feb 4, 2024 1:07:13 GMT -6
00z euro with a Fat Tuesday blizzard lol One can only dream of such a storm… JK, it slides southeast and what should be a historic storm is more of a graze. Even in fantasy land we are losing now 😂 😆 |
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Post by maddogchief on Feb 4, 2024 8:36:46 GMT -6
00z euro with a Fat Tuesday blizzard lol One can only dream of such a storm… JK, it slides southeast and what should be a historic storm is more of a graze. Even in fantasy land we are losing now 😂 You know, the 2 blockbuster storms in January ended up further NW. I don’t remember if it was the 1st or the 2nd one but we were solidly and consistently in the running until like 96 and 72 hours out. Then they went NW. I think the takeaway is that there’s a storm in that timeframe and there could be a winter component to it. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 4, 2024 9:00:48 GMT -6
I'm sure Iowa will enjoy their snow storm next week...once again it looks like the N stream doesn't want to play ball and get the cold air in place ahead of the storm.
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Post by ajd446 on Feb 4, 2024 10:15:22 GMT -6
The cold air will really need to try hard to build, but I would be fine being consistantly in the 50s and 60s til spring, ground hog said early spring lol. Im ready for mowing season. It is so relaxing. Having a cold one on the tractor.
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Feb 4, 2024 10:24:37 GMT -6
I'm sure Iowa will enjoy their snow storm next week...once again it looks like the N stream doesn't want to play ball and get the cold air in place ahead of the storm. That would be number 6 or 7 this winter for Iowa |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 4, 2024 10:40:00 GMT -6
I'm sure Iowa will enjoy their snow storm next week...once again it looks like the N stream doesn't want to play ball and get the cold air in place ahead of the storm. That would be number 6 or 7 this winter for Iowa Slow season... |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 4, 2024 12:42:32 GMT -6
I’m looking at the 12z euro at hour 168 and don’t see how it won’t end up as a big winter storm for the area.
Let’s wait a couple minutes and see how we get missed 😂
**Update**
Now out to hour 198 the euro is a concrete crush job with 6-10+ inches for most of the viewing area.
Upper air temperatures are fantastic.
The way it tries to ruin it for us is with borderline surface temperatures. Basically, the preceding storm doesn’t pull a ton of cold air down and while there is decent high pressure blocking to our north, it is sliding to the northeast limiting evaporative cooling opportunities.
Overall, a great run but a perfect illustration of just how much has to go right for us to cash in anymore.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 4, 2024 13:51:45 GMT -6
And there's the EURO with the textbook snowstorm setup at D7-8...gotta love it. It's an outlier with the handling of the N stream and cold air though...but fun to look at. Seasonal trend and most other models argue for a further N track.
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Post by mosue56 on Feb 4, 2024 14:01:14 GMT -6
When are they predicting the cicadas emerging? I heard once the ground soil reached 64 deg. they’d arrive! I don’t mind listening to them but swarming and flying everywhere defeats being outside!
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