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Post by dschreib on Feb 16, 2024 16:22:43 GMT -6
Roads are decent now, at least 170/40/64. Kudos to the DOTs…and to the sun.
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bfsmith81
Wishcaster
Edwardsville, IL
Posts: 150 
Snowfall Events: Winter of 2023-2024:
01/05/24-1/06/24: 2.5" (Melted almost immediately)
01/12/24-1/13/24: 0.25"
01/15/24: 0.75"
01/18/24-01/19/24: 0.5"
02/16/24: 4.25"
Winter of 2023-2024 Total So Far: 8.25"
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Post by bfsmith81 on Feb 16, 2024 16:24:52 GMT -6
Finished with 4.25" here in Edwardsville, sun breaking out a little now, roads starting to look wet. If only we could have a week in the 20s to keep this around for a bit. Will probably be gone by Monday afternoon but at least it'll stick around tomorrow with a high of 29F, i'm gonna take my 3yo daughter out for her first sledding! Picture perfect finish!  |
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Post by ajd446 on Feb 16, 2024 16:25:12 GMT -6
6 inches storm total south st peters.
In theory this was a warning criteria event since the new criteria is 5 inches
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Post by amstilost on Feb 16, 2024 16:31:38 GMT -6
I was able to get 1.25" of snow thanks to that last round it was really efficient.
I will go with I was one of the ones that was "annoyed" as Chris mentioned in one of his forecast posts. Chris, you nailed that.🤬😭🤪🤪
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 16, 2024 16:31:41 GMT -6
Guesstimating 4" in Arnold
That was a nice overachiever and the thunder snow was really cool
Alright, now im 100% ready for spring lol
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Post by pbc12871 on Feb 16, 2024 16:32:42 GMT -6
I can't remember the last time AJD's end of St.Peters didn't record more snowfall than everybody else.
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Post by cozpregon on Feb 16, 2024 16:39:40 GMT -6
I can't remember the last time AJD's end of St.Peters didn't record more snowfall than everybody else. Really is amazing |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 16, 2024 16:45:48 GMT -6
6 inches storm total south st peters. In theory this was a warning criteria event since the new criteria is 5 inches Maybe forSt Charles County... but thats it. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 16, 2024 16:46:00 GMT -6
Mount Saint Peters wins again!
M4.0" storm total in Brighton
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Post by Sparkman - Wildwood, Mo on Feb 16, 2024 16:46:19 GMT -6
I’m not trying to be overly critical of the NWS at all - but i think it’s reasonable to ask that with the swing and a miss on the last storm if the NWS was a little hesitant to go bigger with this storm out of concern of being burned again. The problem is - at least where I live in Wildwood - this is easily the biggest storm of the year and folks are legitimately un-prepared. Some roads are impassable while kids are trying to get home from school and all of this for about 4-6 inches. You have to error on the side of what the storm could produce and yes you will get burned for the snow that never comes - but even when that happens no one is stuck in their car. Just my thoughts.
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Post by cozpregon on Feb 16, 2024 16:55:01 GMT -6
6 inches storm total south st peters. In theory this was a warning criteria event since the new criteria is 5 inches Maybe forSt Charles County... but thats it. Need to get NWS to issue warnings down to the street level. Mention that to them when you get a chance |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 16, 2024 16:57:48 GMT -6
The difference between 1-2" and 4-5" of slush on roadways is negligible, IMO...they're slick either way.
This storm behaved pretty well from a forecast standpoint...most were in the 1-3" range with a few spots breaking 4".
I do think the NWS should have included most of the area in the advisory to begin with due to the potential for sleet further south.
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Post by cozpregon on Feb 16, 2024 17:02:36 GMT -6
Seemed to me they looked at the NBM and just went with it
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Feb 16, 2024 17:05:10 GMT -6
I’m not trying to be overly critical of the NWS at all - but i think it’s reasonable to ask that with the swing and a miss on the last storm if the NWS was a little hesitant to go bigger with this storm out of concern of being burned again. The problem is - at least where I live in Wildwood - this is easily the biggest storm of the year and folks are legitimately un-prepared. Some roads are impassable while kids are trying to get home from school and all of this for about 4-6 inches. You have to error on the side of what the storm could produce and yes you will get burned for the snow that never comes - but even when that happens no one is stuck in their car. Just my thoughts. I haven't dug into the models but just from 5 mins with the nam earlier it was putting out -50 UVVs. The last time I recall that being the case for sure was with a 2013-14 iirc or 2014-15 clipper that brought 3-4.5" of snow Along the river into Far W/SW Illinois in 75 minutes. Iirc the models were putting out -30 to -35 UVVs. The 12z nam had -50 UVVs as the lift was organizing across what appeared to be two boundary layers. This is at 500mb but from the soundings it looks like this boundary layer was around 700mb sloping upwards.  Hell look at the height field being straight up bent clockwise. Like holy folding bat 🦇🦇🦇 man. |
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Post by Labrat-O'Fallon IL on Feb 16, 2024 17:05:34 GMT -6
Sun is going in and out here. Had the hubs scrape off the driveway. He said it was the dense wet snow that was hard to move.
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Post by cozpregon on Feb 16, 2024 17:11:44 GMT -6
Nice forecast map by the way - just a category short
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Post by ajd446 on Feb 16, 2024 17:41:38 GMT -6
Based on the nws map, 4 to 6 fell in a large swath along 70.
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Feb 16, 2024 17:44:26 GMT -6
Also in the interest of not slamming the the forum with model data images.
The 09z to 12Z model qpf max band that ran along and SOUTH of 64/44.
Nam: .5 to .7"
Rap: .2 to .3"
Gfs: .5 to .6"(also blob of .4 to .5" over the Northern half of St. Chuck county .
Gem: .3 to .35"
Rgem: .35 to .40"(had a .5 to .6" max band further SE of STL running from Randolph county to Flora County or just South of there.5
Euro, icon, umket were all about .3" qpf.
It looks like the forecast was quite a bit under played South of 44/64. I don't know exactly what the forecast was beyond my backyards of 1-3"
We had roughly 4.5-5" here along Foley drive. About 1.5 miles or so North of highway 15. And 3-4 miles South of 64/40. And 2.3 miles East of 255 North/South.
We also had at least 2 loud rumbles of thunder.
And 1 partial crack of thunder that bled into a prolonged rumble.
And 3 rounds or snow. 1 heavy and quick dropping a half inch.
Another very very heavy round maybe 75 mins dropping 4"
Lastly a 20 min or so round dropping a quarter inch or so.
Enjoy everyone.
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Post by tedrick65 on Feb 16, 2024 17:51:01 GMT -6
Got home a little while ago. MoDOT and St. Louis County main roads were fine. Jeffco maintained main roads were terrible. Brennan was basically closed in the curve at Brennan Woods school and the other ones around me had this bumpy frozen layer on them.
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Feb 16, 2024 17:56:48 GMT -6
This flight at Mid America boarded 4 hours ago. Have not let us off the plane, haven't even offered a drink of water. The downside of allegiant. When it's good it's awesome. When it's terrible, it's downright terrible Did you measure??? I just didn't feel like measuring but I guestimate a very very healthy 5" like cardsNweather had in Ofallon. I was hoping the hour or so of legit very legit but not quite Jimmy Cantore level TSNOW was enough to challenge Mount Darthsnovius in St. Peters unprecedented streak of winning the golden snow shoe.. |
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Post by tedrick65 on Feb 16, 2024 18:11:28 GMT -6
The downside of allegiant. When it's good it's awesome. When it's terrible, it's downright terrible Did you measure??? I just didn't feel like measuring but I guestimate a very very healthy 5" like cardsNweather had in Ofallon. I was hoping the hour or so of legit very legit but not quite Jimmy Cantore level TSNOW was enough to challenge Mount Darthsnovius in St. Peters unprecedented streak of winning the golden snow shoe.. Can there ever be Cantore level TSNOW without Cantore? I'd like to see the avatar for Darth Snovius! |
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Post by tedrick65 on Feb 16, 2024 18:14:15 GMT -6
Got home a little while ago. MoDOT and St. Louis County main roads were fine. Jeffco maintained main roads were terrible. Brennan was basically closed in the curve at Brennan Woods school and the other ones around me had this bumpy frozen layer on them. Yay!  . Brennan Road is now closed in both directions from my subdivision. There's still some sort of problem up in the curve heading to Hwy. 30 (not a safe place to walk to for checking things on out on a clear day) and they are pulling a box truck out of the ditch the other way. Around noontime, Jeffco still hadn't mounted plows on their trucks and they are probably getting close to just having to wait for it to melt over the weekend. |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 16, 2024 18:15:36 GMT -6
I actually think this one may over achieve a little. If temperatures actually drop to near freezing before sunrise... they will likely not rebound much. This will allow ground temperatures to cool off as well... just as the precip starts to fall. Throw in some sleet at the onset, and I think this one may be a touch more efficient on the accumulation side. Time of year does matter now... but so do dynamics... and the models are showing multiple mesoscale bands that may train over the same areas for a time. In fact, radar may look a bit like a zebra for a few hours tomorrow with rows of narrow snow bands pushing east and easing south. Yup... it was more effecient  |
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Feb 16, 2024 18:36:13 GMT -6
Your forecast was just about perfect Chris …..I’m guessing close to 2.5 to 3 inches down this way …. Absolutely beautiful to watch this afternoon
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Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 16, 2024 18:36:36 GMT -6
My ramblings between live shots today...
One of the reasons I went 1-3 south was to account for possible impacts of sleet, yet also factor in potential for enhanced precipitation in a VERY narrow zone near the surface boundary. I was also trying to balance potential mitigating effects of the warm ground. How much of that QPF actually goes into observable accumulation? That is always a tough call in these situations. Trying to sharp shoot the exact location of that boundary was impossible... so I chose to get us in the neighborhood with a top # of 3" in the south. That actually worked great...except in St. Clair county...and the snow total there was significantly enhanced by the small cluster of thundersnow that went through heart of the county.
I toyed with going 2-5 up in the northern band... but the late onset of meaningful precipitation...coming after sunrise in a very marginal surface temperature set-up with warm ground... I just didn't want to push up quite that high. I thought 2-4 would get the job done and give folks the right impression and if a few 5 inch totals popped up... it wouldn't have that much of a practical impact different from 2-4. I still think that is true.
Keep in mind that we (I) was really hitting the midday/early afternoon as the time when roads would get nasty for a while and the heaviest snow would fall. So if anyone was listening to us, that's what they should have heard...watch the roads late morning to mid-afternoon...with fast improvement as the snow ended. And that is what has played out. The roads quickly improved as the snow ended and the sun came out.
Definitely not a perfect forecast... but far from a swing and a miss.
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Feb 16, 2024 18:46:59 GMT -6
We had 4.5 to 5" here.
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Post by ajd446 on Feb 16, 2024 18:53:36 GMT -6
Todays event give this winter a C to me.
Now metro area has seen 8 to 12 inches for the season.
Not terrible in regards to what we are dealt and definately better than last winter.
While it has been extremely warm, tha january cold snap and today, give it a C for me.
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Post by cardsnweather on Feb 16, 2024 19:06:12 GMT -6
What an absolutely gorgeous snow. The scene this afternoon after sun came out was incredible. 7 weeks ago to the day, we got 5”, and today we got 5”. Both times it was 1-2” or 2-3” forecasted up to the event. Funniest part is in those 7 weeks, we had multiple model runs that showed snow almost in the feet and got nothing.
Predicting weather in this area is the biggest headache. As always, the people on this forum are so knowledgeable and the best. Chris, you do a great job informing the public before, during and after these events trying to create a better understanding for how hard this really is.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 16, 2024 19:57:06 GMT -6
I was actually really impressed with our in house IBM model with this storm. I was printing out 5-7 inches for the north metro... with a further south displacement along the MO River and I-70 for much of the week once it came into range. I was actually using the model radar from it all week.. but was not able to buy into the 6-7 inch totals with such a flat looking storm. Up until this morning and maybe last night... the NAM and NAM3k were very stingy on precip.
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Post by Snowman99 on Feb 16, 2024 20:25:33 GMT -6
Pretty cool storm. Finally.
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. Brennan Road is now closed in both directions from my subdivision. There's still some sort of problem up in the curve heading to Hwy. 30 (not a safe place to walk to for checking things on out on a clear day) and they are pulling a box truck out of the ditch the other way. Around noontime, Jeffco still hadn't mounted plows on their trucks and they are probably getting close to just having to wait for it to melt over the weekend.
