Chris's Corner - Welcome to the Warmest Start Ever to Feb!

The sim radars the last couple of runs nailed it perfectly. It was impressive how quickly it accumulated.

Fun day today.... 4.5 inches in OFallon, MO located at K/N

I very rarely measure snow. Once the grass is covered, I'm happy.

Don't drive the hills on the bluff in this weather though. Horrible.

Truth is we sometimes do better here with sheared out, weaker systems where the 850mb low isn't as wrapped up so the WAA is weaker. Today we had just the right mix of modest 850mb moist flow...juxtaposed with just cold enough and dry enough air being forced south by the northern stream. The NAM picking up the southern band after the event begins was not helpful... Yes, it finally caught on, but that model needs to have a better reliability window than 12 hours. It has proven two storms in a row that 12 hours might be its cut-off.

A couple of points to address sparkman...
1) Yes, I would not be surpised nor blame any meteorologist who has to do this job for a living for being a little gunshy after the Monday non-event. It would be human nature. I preach to my broadcast students (and remind myself regularly) to never be affraid to forecast. By that I mean exactly what you are saying... you cannot let a past missed forecast keep you from getting back into the game to try again. You must learn from that experience, but never shy away from forecasting. If you do, you'll end up playing catch up with every weather event.

2) I will respectfully disagree to some extent on the notion that we have to always forecast the worst case scenario... or what a storm COULD produce. That is frought with hazards, the most important being that if go "big" with every storm, people stop paying attention. We already get accused of crying wolf anytime the word snow is mentioned in a forecast. And let's face it... every storm has a 10% chance of a big suprise... which means 90% of them do not. Should we always highlight and forecast to that top 10%. I argue we should not. What you can do is lay your best forecast out on the table, but also explain the realistic chances for what could go wrong. Are there any indications that have you as the forecaster a bit concerned about a suprise? Not unlike what I posted in here yesterday... about my concerns for today to overachieve a bit.

I honestly think one of the biggest problems we ran into today was that when the time came to make a decision early this morning there wasn't much going on yet. Radar didn't look impressive at all around 4am and what was falling was hardly impressive and it wasn't sticking. So I can understand hesitation at that point with calling school. That being said, our forecast did specifically mention that the afternoon bus stop time could be moderately impacted by snow. Considering schools these days seem to cancel for even the most minor impact events, I would have thought that warning about the afternoon bus stop would have been enough to get administrators to act. What is even more perplexing to me is not using the readily available virtual learning day option. I know those aren't ideal, but it sure is a safer option than taking a chance by sending kids to school on a day where snow was in the forecast. I do wonder if the lack of a Winter Weather Advisory for STL had anything to do with it? Imagine the uproar in the opposite direction... you cancel classes, there is no advisory issued and the roads end up being fine. Parents would come after administrators for cancelling school for no reason.

Anyway... good discussion points Sparkman...I really do appreciate the constructive conversation and the respectful way those questions were posed! Refreshing in this day and age!

Anyone have the official snowfall total at Lambert?

Lambert recorded 3.4" with 0.39" liquid equivalent(about 9:1 SLR).

Drinking my coffee by the window and the brilliant sunlight is shining in. Hearing the icicles dripping and falling off already. There's no denying the increasing strength of the mid to late February sun. Coming out of another Winter with Spring fast approaching. Despite my username on here, Spring is my favorite time of year. I'm looking forward to it! Sled while you can kiddos!

I have to say all forecasters were on top of this, afaiac. I personally think too often the public hangs on every. Single. Word in a forecast. Also way too much gets read into whether theres a headline or not. Its almost as if a wsw is a status symbol. The difference between an inch of snow and 4 inches of snow is pretty negligible in terms of precip amts, and theres so many variables that go into impact level. The high feb sun certainly tempered my expectations. Like tk mentioned 4.5 inches here, and im surprised there was a cottleville location at 6.7? It seems to be an outlier although the nws 3 miles to my south had a pretty close measurement (5.7 iirc?)

I just realize now that since we dont get much snow, a small amt of snow brings impacts and with the new luxury of wfh, i take advantage of that.

"Not great"

We ended up with 5" over here. It was a very nice overachiever out this way as well. Kudos to you Chris as I believe in one of your earlier posts you said east of St. Louis in southern Illinois could be in a heavier band.

Yeah - i was a little surprised seeing 6.7 as an official measurement. But I guess there were a lot of pockets of some heavier snow bands all around with hit and misses.

You all have more snow than me this winter.

Haven’t had a 4+ inch snow in two winters.

Need this SSW to come through for March