|
|
Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Feb 17, 2024 21:23:57 GMT -6
I have to say all forecasters were on top of this, afaiac. I personally think too often the public hangs on every. Single. Word in a forecast. Also way too much gets read into whether theres a headline or not. Its almost as if a wsw is a status symbol. The difference between an inch of snow and 4 inches of snow is pretty negligible in terms of precip amts, and theres so many variables that go into impact level. The high feb sun certainly tempered my expectations. Like tk mentioned 4.5 inches here, and im surprised there was a cottleville location at 6.7? It seems to be an outlier although the nws 3 miles to my south had a pretty close measurement (5.7 iirc?) I just realize now that since we dont get much snow, a small amt of snow brings impacts and with the new luxury of wfh, i take advantage of that. Rain forecasts are given in increments of .1 or .25 or larger. Increments for snow amount to .01 or .02 of water. That's a pretty fine line to hit compared to the rain prediction. I don't think the general public understands that. |
|
|
|
Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 17, 2024 21:40:12 GMT -6
I have to say all forecasters were on top of this, afaiac. I personally think too often the public hangs on every. Single. Word in a forecast. Also way too much gets read into whether theres a headline or not. Its almost as if a wsw is a status symbol. The difference between an inch of snow and 4 inches of snow is pretty negligible in terms of precip amts, and theres so many variables that go into impact level. The high feb sun certainly tempered my expectations. Like tk mentioned 4.5 inches here, and im surprised there was a cottleville location at 6.7? It seems to be an outlier although the nws 3 miles to my south had a pretty close measurement (5.7 iirc?) I just realize now that since we dont get much snow, a small amt of snow brings impacts and with the new luxury of wfh, i take advantage of that. Rain forecasts are given in increments of .1 or .25 or larger. Increments for snow amount to .01 or .02 of water. That's a pretty fine line to hit compared to the rain prediction. I don't think the general public understands that. I disagree with this. General snow ratios give 2-3 inches. That is 0.2-0.3 inches of QPF given 10-1 ratios. QPF is less in the winter. It’s not that bad. |
|
|
|
Post by ndolan387 on Feb 17, 2024 23:54:00 GMT -6
Glad you all experienced an overachiever yesterday! It's been too long since we've had thunder snow. My Mom measured 5in in Northern Wildwood yesterday!
|
|
|
|
Post by ndolan387 on Feb 17, 2024 23:58:44 GMT -6
We aren't done though! It's really hard to compare our recent winters in the snowfall department to the past climatology of 30 years. It's just a different pattern beast! |
|
|
|
Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 18, 2024 7:34:52 GMT -6
We aren't done though! It's really hard to compare our recent winters in the snowfall department to the past climatology of 30 years. It's just a different pattern beast! We'll see. Looks like we may have to wait until March for any potential...models show a possible severe wx setup towards the last day or two of the month with sustained S flow and a big trof ejection out of the W US. |
|
|
|
Post by yypc on Feb 18, 2024 7:34:56 GMT -6
When I was a kid I remember we averaged around 20” of snow a year. 11” now? Dang.
|
|
|
|
Post by cardsnweather on Feb 18, 2024 8:41:41 GMT -6
Some of us might not go below freezing the rest of February after tonight.
|
|
|
|
Post by Jeffmw on Feb 18, 2024 11:57:52 GMT -6
Imwknder what CH2 is going to air to replace the Daytona race.
|
|
|
|
Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Feb 18, 2024 12:56:38 GMT -6
Snow is going away in hurry.
|
|
bfsmith81
Wishcaster
Edwardsville, IL
Posts: 150 
Snowfall Events: Winter of 2023-2024:
01/05/24-1/06/24: 2.5" (Melted almost immediately)
01/12/24-1/13/24: 0.25"
01/15/24: 0.75"
01/18/24-01/19/24: 0.5"
02/16/24: 4.25"
Winter of 2023-2024 Total So Far: 8.25"
|
Post by bfsmith81 on Feb 18, 2024 13:11:51 GMT -6
Snow is going away in hurry. My south-facing front lawn is almost bare already (we had 4.25"), while the houses across the street have 2" probably still left in their yard. That sun angle makes a big difference! 39F |
|
|
|
Post by REB on Feb 18, 2024 15:13:34 GMT -6
Got home before everything melted!
|
|
|
|
Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Feb 18, 2024 15:24:30 GMT -6
Snow is going away in hurry. My south-facing front lawn is almost bare already (we had 4.25"), while the houses across the street have 2" probably still left in their yard. That sun angle makes a big difference! 39F I'm up to 43⁰. I had close to 6" and any snow not in the shade is gone. |
|
Jeke
Junior Forecaster
Old Jamestown, MO
Posts: 320
|
Post by Jeke on Feb 18, 2024 17:06:28 GMT -6
Imwknder what CH2 is going to air to replace the Daytona race. Radio said somewhere between 3:00PM - 4:00PM tomorrow afternoon. |
|
|
|
Post by Jeffmw on Feb 18, 2024 21:05:42 GMT -6
Imwknder what CH2 is going to air to replace the Daytona race. Radio said somewhere between 3:00PM - 4:00PM tomorrow afternoon. Sorry I meant I was wondering what they replaced it with today. |
|
|
|
Post by REB on Feb 19, 2024 7:08:29 GMT -6
Can't remember who set up the Discord site. Any one?
|
|
|
|
Post by weatherj on Feb 19, 2024 7:19:00 GMT -6
Can't remember who set up the Discord site. Any one? Snowstorm920 |
|
|
|
Post by REB on Feb 19, 2024 7:25:15 GMT -6
Can't remember who set up the Discord site. Any one? Snowstorm920 Thanks Jason. |
|
|
|
Post by Spaz(Wrestlerdude) on Feb 19, 2024 9:29:05 GMT -6
Can I get a link to that? I was thinking of setting one up as well a while ago. |
|
|
|
Post by WEAXWATCHER on Feb 19, 2024 9:55:02 GMT -6
I too would like the discord link.
|
|
|
|
Post by REB on Feb 19, 2024 10:12:34 GMT -6
I can't find the link. Hopefully Snowman 920 can let us know.
|
|
|
|
Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 19, 2024 10:39:55 GMT -6
Here is a link to the Discord. Anyone is welcome to join. It’s a pretty chill place. I have a bot setup in there to auto post all kinds of NWS products at a local and national level. discord.gg/WtnrRUkM |
|
|
|
Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 19, 2024 16:12:19 GMT -6
Reed is starting to talk up the potential severe outbreak towards months end...it definitely has "the look".
|
|
|
|
Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 19, 2024 18:17:05 GMT -6
Hey team... I will be in ghost mode this week. The Higgins family is moving! It's only a few miles, but it might as well be across the country. I hate packing. I hate dust. I hate unpacking. And it is going to rain the day we are moving most of the stuff. At least it isn't snow!
|
|
|
|
Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 19, 2024 18:34:01 GMT -6
Reed is starting to talk up the potential severe outbreak towards months end...it definitely has "the look". Also seeing a weak signal for secondary development and snow around then. I expect a flatter lead wave with marginal severe in the metro, but we shall see. |
|
|
|
Post by Labrat-O'Fallon IL on Feb 19, 2024 20:22:30 GMT -6
We lucked out having my mom's surgery when it was. If it was this past Friday my sister and I would've camped out longer at the hospital. She is doing a lot better, a week past her surgery, and she is trying to regain strength. My uncle gets more extensive surgery to get his cancerous kidney out next week. I had already took this week off to relax and I am thoroughly enjoying this weather. Was able to take my dog and my mom's dog for a walk today.
|
|
|
|
Post by Labrat-O'Fallon IL on Feb 19, 2024 20:25:56 GMT -6
Hey team... I will be in ghost mode this week. The Higgins family is moving! It's only a few miles, but it might as well be across the country. I hate packing. I hate dust. I hate unpacking. And it is going to rain the day we are moving most of the stuff. At least it isn't snow! When we got to our house here in O'Fallon I said I was never going to move again. Moving with the military was more than enough to kill my desire to pack up and unpack. We unpacked in the snow in Colorado and cold in Omaha. |
|
|
|
Post by maddogchief on Feb 19, 2024 21:49:32 GMT -6
The rest of the month and into early March is looking very warm east of the Rockies I'm glad we were able to cash in yesterday with some snow You all have more snow than me this winter. Haven’t had a 4+ inch snow in two winters. Need this SSW to come through for March It seems that we are in a multi-year winter pattern that has shifted the season and subsequently the storm track. This pattern is allowing for some pretty stout cold air intrusions, pushing us well below zero with less than ideal conditions to do so. However, those intrusions are usually short lived and in between we end up with slightly above normal temps. It makes snow pretty hard to come by. |
|
|
|
Post by showtime - Marissa on Feb 19, 2024 22:02:32 GMT -6
Good luck with the move Chris ….. moving is never fun
|
|
|
|
Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 19, 2024 22:36:49 GMT -6
You all have more snow than me this winter. Haven’t had a 4+ inch snow in two winters. Need this SSW to come through for March It seems that we are in a multi-year winter pattern that has shifted the season and subsequently the storm track. This pattern is allowing for some pretty stout cold air intrusions, pushing us well below zero with less than ideal conditions to do so. However, those intrusions are usually short lived and in between we end up with slightly above normal temps. It makes snow pretty hard to come by. I don’t think “slightly above normal temps” is the best way to describe the last few winters. More like “record shattering warmth”. |
|
|
|
Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 19, 2024 22:39:36 GMT -6
Rain forecasts are given in increments of .1 or .25 or larger. Increments for snow amount to .01 or .02 of water. That's a pretty fine line to hit compared to the rain prediction. I don't think the general public understands that. I disagree with this. General snow ratios give 2-3 inches. That is 0.2-0.3 inches of QPF given 10-1 ratios. QPF is less in the winter. It’s not that bad. I think a big part of it is that when it comes to rain, there is nowhere near the attention to how much rain actually falls... 0.10, 0.20, 0.40... to the average person they will not notice much of a difference... nor do most people care. I'm careful to say most because there are certain sectors that do care very much. But the general public really doesn't start paying attention to rainfall amounts until it gets to soaking the ground, mud making, raining out games or creates flooding. As forecasters, we aren't asked for the same level of detail or accuracy when it comes to rainfall as people expect with snowfall. Which is funny when you think about it, because forecasting snow is about the hardest thing we do in weather. I think the fact that everybody can see the pile of snow in their yard... they can immediately go out and measure the snow and say "this is what I got IMBY" That is not the case in rainfall. Many people do not have rain gauges and when the rain is over... out of sight out of mind! I do 100% agree that people treat "Advisories" and "Warnings" as status symbols... and if you don't get one issued for you the weather will have no impact. I think that is one reason the NWS is in the process of investigating getting rid of many/all advisories and just going Watch or Warning. They want the forecast to take back the top billing and not a headline. I'm not sure I like the idea... but I do understand it. |
|
