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Post by mosue56 on Feb 23, 2024 13:47:20 GMT -6
Winters over!
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Post by Jeffmw on Feb 23, 2024 16:00:21 GMT -6
And here comes 6 in of snow lol kidding |
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Post by mosue56 on Feb 23, 2024 17:50:51 GMT -6
Not with this warm weather coming and ground temps in the 50s.
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Post by bdgwx on Feb 24, 2024 7:54:35 GMT -6
The record high for Feb. 27th is currently 79F set in 1981. The NBM has us hitting 80F.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 24, 2024 8:21:44 GMT -6
Last night's EURO looks a bit concerning for Tuesday with ~1500j/kg CAPE and strong shear values. Almost seems like a conditional threat with some models not really firing storms until the front pushes east of us Tuesday night but if storms develop the environment should be conducive for rotating storms and tornadoes.
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Post by Snowman99 on Feb 24, 2024 10:21:21 GMT -6
def going over 80 Tuesday.Chances are severe will be east and south. May start developing right over us. Still lots to hash out
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savunma
Weather Weenie
Granite City
Posts: 72 
Snowfall Events: 11/16/14 - 1.5"
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Post by savunma on Feb 24, 2024 15:27:03 GMT -6
Us getting missed by storms is pretty much the norm anymore. I’m sure the trend will continue
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Post by tedrick65 on Feb 24, 2024 17:27:04 GMT -6
Wonder if the plant life is going to get going enough after the next 3 days to where Wednesday night is going to be a problem.
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Feb 24, 2024 18:26:32 GMT -6
We can have freezes for at least the next 4-6 weeks
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Post by ajd446 on Feb 24, 2024 19:05:52 GMT -6
We want to get missed by severe weather. Snowfall not so much, but severe the more it looks like we will be spared the better in my opinion.
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Post by House Springs ~ DeerKiller ~ on Feb 24, 2024 19:25:05 GMT -6
I bet anyone $1 it snows in April this year! ❄️
Seems when Easter is in March we normally get an April Snow! ⛄️
BTW I'm currently in Thailand 🇹🇭 and OMG the humidity make our summers feel like a breeze 😂 it's 32* c and 100% humidity over here😅🥵
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Post by let it snow11 on Feb 24, 2024 19:39:03 GMT -6
BRTNWXMAN did you see they've recorded the first official morel find of the Spring in the state of MO down in far SWMO in McDonald county?? Soil temps in my area are already running about 40°. This seems WAY out of the norm. 😳
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Post by STGOutdoors on Feb 24, 2024 19:46:06 GMT -6
BRTNWXMAN did you see they've recorded the first official morel find of the Spring in the state of MO down in far SWMO in McDonald county?? Soil temps in my area are already running about 40°. This seems WAY out of the norm. 😳 2012 had a few found in SW MO on around February 27-28. Then by third week of March it pretty well was over for us. The blowtorch that ran from March through July basically. |
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Post by let it snow11 on Feb 24, 2024 20:50:53 GMT -6
BRTNWXMAN did you see they've recorded the first official morel find of the Spring in the state of MO down in far SWMO in McDonald county?? Soil temps in my area are already running about 40°. This seems WAY out of the norm. 😳 2012 had a few found in SW MO on around February 27-28. Then, by third week of March it pretty well was over for us. The blowtorch that ran from March through July basically. That particular year was rough for me personally (my own doing mostly), and I don't remember much about the 2012 Spring weather or morel season. I definitely remember the record setting hot dry summer, though, so it makes sense. Also a little concerning if it also translates to this summer's pattern. |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Feb 24, 2024 21:06:27 GMT -6
2012 had a few found in SW MO on around February 27-28. Then, by third week of March it pretty well was over for us. The blowtorch that ran from March through July basically. That particular year was rough for me personally (my own doing mostly), and I don't remember much about the 2012 Spring weather or morel season. I definitely remember the record setting hot dry summer, though, so it makes sense. Also a little concerning if it also translates to this summer's pattern. It was bad. Dry warm winds started late Feb. no moisture at all. Very Different than the current pattern. |
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Post by Jeffmw on Feb 24, 2024 21:47:48 GMT -6
The Snow Moon tonight over Ferguson, Missouri. Saturday, February 24th 2024  |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 25, 2024 8:40:49 GMT -6
BRTNWXMAN did you see they've recorded the first official morel find of the Spring in the state of MO down in far SWMO in McDonald county?? Soil temps in my area are already running about 40°. This seems WAY out of the norm. 😳 I'm not surprised with the shallow, rocky soil they have down that way. Microclimates can make all the difference with those early ones. The tulips and daffodils are coming up here. It's definitely looking like the earliest start since 2012 unless things change in March. And there's really no signs of that in the modeling yet. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 25, 2024 8:50:40 GMT -6
SPC has issued a SLGT risk for Tuesday for the region but models are still variable with the timing and location of convective initiation. The EURO is bullish with storms developing across IL near the SLP but other modeling is more subdued and slower.
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Feb 25, 2024 10:08:03 GMT -6
SPC has issued a SLGT risk for Tuesday for the region but models are still variable with the timing and location of convective initiation. The EURO is bullish with storms developing across IL near the SLP but other modeling is more subdued and slower. There is a lot to hash out still. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 25, 2024 11:26:16 GMT -6
SPC has issued a SLGT risk for Tuesday for the region but models are still variable with the timing and location of convective initiation. The EURO is bullish with storms developing across IL near the SLP but other modeling is more subdued and slower. There is a lot to hash out still. That's for sure. The threat is there...but it continues to look conditional around here. The GFS/EURO agree that storms will develop late afternoon/evening across mainly IL while the NAM is much slower. I'd say there's considerable tornado potential near the SLP where winds are more backed and convergence is maximized, so this needs to be watched closely. |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 25, 2024 13:23:35 GMT -6
There is a lot to hash out still. That's for sure. The threat is there...but it continues to look conditional around here. The GFS/EURO agree that storms will develop late afternoon/evening across mainly IL while the NAM is much slower. I'd say there's considerable tornado potential near the SLP where winds are more backed and convergence is maximized, so this needs to be watched closely. I might be able to go from tornado watch to snow squall warning in about 2 hours. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 25, 2024 13:51:34 GMT -6
I know Tuesday comes first, but have you guys been peeking what might be brewing next weekend?
Some of the recent euro runs are as classic as a plains severe outbreak gets
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 25, 2024 14:01:36 GMT -6
I know Tuesday comes first, but have you guys been peeking what might be brewing next weekend? Some of the recent euro runs are as classic as a plains severe outbreak gets Yeah, big ol bowling ball coming in hot... |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 25, 2024 14:03:25 GMT -6
That's for sure. The threat is there...but it continues to look conditional around here. The GFS/EURO agree that storms will develop late afternoon/evening across mainly IL while the NAM is much slower. I'd say there's considerable tornado potential near the SLP where winds are more backed and convergence is maximized, so this needs to be watched closely. I might be able to go from tornado watch to snow squall warning in about 2 hours. It's bringing a pretty strong temp gradient for sure. N/Central IL seems to be the hotspot for the greatest severe threat currently. |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 25, 2024 14:11:05 GMT -6
I might be able to go from tornado watch to snow squall warning in about 2 hours. It's bringing a pretty strong temp gradient for sure. N/Central IL seems to be the hotspot for the greatest severe threat currently. Moisture return should be a limiting/mitigating factor up this way. Seeing signs of life for winter by the second week of March. Hoping for at least one 4 inch storm this season. I thought last year sucked. This year has been absurdly bad. |
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lunchladyd
Junior Forecaster
On the Troy -Silex, Mo. line
Posts: 399 
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Post by lunchladyd on Feb 25, 2024 16:27:27 GMT -6
NWS is mentioning possible snow and sleet early Tuesday morning? What do you all think?
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twocat
Junior Forecaster
North St. Peters off Cave Springs
Posts: 395
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Post by twocat on Feb 25, 2024 17:05:36 GMT -6
The Snow Moon tonight over Ferguson, Missouri. Saturday, February 24th 2024 It was really bright! |
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Post by Snowman99 on Feb 25, 2024 17:12:10 GMT -6
NWS is mentioning possible snow and sleet early Tuesday morning? What do you all think? Wednesday morning, and if it does anything at all it'll be very brief and won't amount to anything at all. |
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Post by Labrat-O'Fallon IL on Feb 25, 2024 17:50:02 GMT -6
Was out picking up leavings from the dog, and had a mosquito checking me out. Big mosquito too. Just a little too early for them.
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Post by Jeffmw on Feb 25, 2024 18:18:19 GMT -6
Was out picking up leavings from the dog, and had a mosquito checking me out. Big mosquito too. Just a little too early for them. But still getting us in the mood. |
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