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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Feb 26, 2024 7:00:59 GMT -6
Haha. My point forecast has highs tomorrow at 82 then a chance of snow after 3 am wednesday.
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Post by REB on Feb 26, 2024 7:24:29 GMT -6
So......not a good day to get the car detailed.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 26, 2024 9:47:31 GMT -6
Tomorrow is going to be an interesting day...most models are consistent in showing 1000-1500j/kg SBCAPE developing with strong frontal convergence moving in during the late afternoon/evening. It's hard to imagine storms not developing in that environment, but CAMs are pretty stingy so far.
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Post by msnotos on Feb 26, 2024 9:54:59 GMT -6
Haha. My point forecast has highs tomorrow at 82 then a chance of snow after 3 am wednesday. My prediction Sunday wasn't far off |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 26, 2024 10:09:05 GMT -6
Tomorrow is going to be an interesting day...most models are consistent in showing 1000-1500j/kg SBCAPE developing with strong frontal convergence moving in during the late afternoon/evening. It's hard to imagine storms not developing in that environment, but CAMs are pretty stingy so far. The environment is ripe for sure if we get enough low level moisture is place. That’s going to be tough with a stout EML in place. I was able to cherry pick this sounding near the metro tomorrow afternoon off the Hi res NAM.  |
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Post by Snowman99 on Feb 26, 2024 10:11:33 GMT -6
Beginning March 4th, 2024, the WSR-88D radar operated by the National Weather Service in St. Louis will be down for approximately two weeks for an important upgrade. Technicians will refurbish and replace the pedestal, one of the most critical components of the radar, which is necessary for antenna rotation and positioning to capture data in all directions. The components are extremely heavy and will require the radome to be removed by crane and replaced when the work is completed. The radar and pedestal were designed to last 25 years, and this radar has exceeded its life-span. This activity is necessary to keep the radar functioning for another 20 years or more. The pedestal refurbishment is the third major project of the NEXRAD Service Life Extension Program (SLEP), a series of upgrades that will keep our nation’s radars viable into the 2030s. The National Weather Service, the United States Air Force, and the Federal Aviation Administration are investing $135 million in the eight year program. The SLEP is a series of 4 different upgrades to the radar, with this phase being the final phase of the program. During the two week downtime, adjacent radars will be available, including: TDWR St. Louis, WSR-88D Lincoln, IL, WSR-88D Paducah, KY, WSR-88D Springfield, MO and WSR-88D Kansas City, MO. For direct access to any of these surrounding radar sites, visit the following web page: radar.weather.gov/. The St. Louis WSR-88D is part of a network of 159 operational radars. The Radar Operations Center in Norman, Oklahoma, provides lifecycle management and support for all WSR-88Ds. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 26, 2024 14:34:13 GMT -6
We might go from 80s and severe weather tomorrow afternoon to snow showers 12 hours later
Going to be a wild temp drop
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 26, 2024 15:04:06 GMT -6
We might go from 80s and severe weather tomorrow afternoon to snow showers 12 hours later Going to be a wild temp drop One of the strongest temp gradients I can remember since that "superfront" back in 2006(?) |
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Post by SnowManJoe - Wentzville, MO on Feb 26, 2024 15:20:38 GMT -6
We might go from 80s and severe weather tomorrow afternoon to snow showers 12 hours later Going to be a wild temp drop One of the strongest temp gradients I can remember since that "superfront" back in 2006(?) I believe you are correct. I think we had some ice after that as well. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 26, 2024 16:02:09 GMT -6
One of the strongest temp gradients I can remember since that "superfront" back in 2006(?) I believe you are correct. I think we had some ice after that as well. Yep, it was in the mid/upper 70s with severe storms along the front and sleet/snow squalls behind it with temps crashing into the 20s |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Feb 26, 2024 16:11:23 GMT -6
I believe you are correct. I think we had some ice after that as well. Yep, it was in the mid/upper 70s with severe storms along the front and sleet/snow squalls behind it with temps crashing into the 20s That was Feb 2nd, 2006 right? |
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Post by weatherj on Feb 26, 2024 16:20:52 GMT -6
Yep, it was in the mid/upper 70s with severe storms along the front and sleet/snow squalls behind it with temps crashing into the 20s That was Feb 2nd, 2006 right? I believe it was 2008. There was originally a " 5 minute blizzard " video on youtube that still may exist under fox2. I'm almost positive that was the "superfront" you guys are talking about. I could easily be wrong about what day or if it was this specific event, but I distinctly remember a very sharp front in 2008 causing a drastic drop.
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Post by dschreib on Feb 26, 2024 17:49:02 GMT -6
#breezy
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Post by amstilost on Feb 26, 2024 17:52:43 GMT -6
I didn't realize we were supposed to get some rain or a chance of rain Saturday night into Sunday morning. I hadn't kept up too much with the forecast so I figured maybe it's just something I missed. The only way I can look back on previous forecasts is looking through previous forecast discussions I didn't see any mention of it so I'm assuming it wasn't in the forecast either. I've heard you guys on here mentioned for the last five or six days about possibility of severe weather tomorrow. My forecast is not consistent. On the text forecast it doesn't mention thunderstorms at all, but on the icon it says a 20 to 30% chance of showers/thunderstorms. No mention at all of anything severe. Do I need to keep watching The Weather Service to see if something changes or just tune in here?
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Post by bdgwx on Feb 26, 2024 18:22:15 GMT -6
RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
428 PM CST MON FEB 26 2024
...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT ST. LOUIS...
A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 80 DEGREES WAS SET AT ST. LOUIS TODAY.
THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 78 DEGREES SET IN 1996.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 26, 2024 18:22:27 GMT -6
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Post by yypc on Feb 26, 2024 18:22:34 GMT -6
The skeeters are already out. First bites of the season this evening.
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Post by bdgwx on Feb 26, 2024 18:27:07 GMT -6
The skeeters are already out. First bites of the season this evening. My problem is allergies. I've had a good last 5 years or so with minimal problems, but man the last couple of days have been brutal for me. |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 26, 2024 19:00:18 GMT -6
The skeeters are already out. First bites of the season this evening. My problem is allergies. I've had a good last 5 years or so with minimal problems, but man the last couple of days have been brutal for me. Same, mine are awful right now |
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Post by dschreib on Feb 26, 2024 20:00:47 GMT -6
My problem is allergies. I've had a good last 5 years or so with minimal problems, but man the last couple of days have been brutal for me. Same, mine are awful right now Car was covered with pollen today. |
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Post by Labrat-O'Fallon IL on Feb 26, 2024 20:31:05 GMT -6
I could've sworn the superfront was 2007 or 2008. I remember, my dad was passed, I was out and about with my mom and had to stop by my house to pick up my winter coat.
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Post by ajd446 on Feb 26, 2024 20:36:30 GMT -6
Very, very smokey in st.peters
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Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 26, 2024 21:37:21 GMT -6
Wow... that was quite the weekend! But, the Higgins family is safely moved into our new home. Now we begin the long process of unpacking and further purging! The stuff you accumulate when you live in the same house for 23 years is amazing! We were blessed with a great moving crew and amazing weather!
Now let's talk about tomorrow.
I think there is an outside chance some of the region will approach 90! The HRRR and RAP have shown a significant amount of mixing of the shallow moisture over the Ozark plateau thanks to the warm, dry, southwest wind. The NAM is much more generous with its moisture supply. I really think the RAP and HRRR are on to something with the drying trends. They crater the Tds into the 30s and low 40s by early afternoon. The NAM, on the other hand does not mix away the low level moisture and in turn keeps the moisture bottled up below the inversion. Obviously two vastly different outcomes. The former screams over-performing temperatures under sunny skies with very gusty winds. The later favors more clouds, higher humidity and a chance for severe storms ahead of the front.
The HRRR and RAP show an entirely unidirectional flow from the ground up with a very straight hodograph. This explains the rapid drying as such a flow would allow the dry/warm air aloft to easily mix to the surface and devour the PBL moisture. The NAM is known for being too moist and producing too much low level cloud cover. So I'm leaning more towards something more like the HRRR and RAP. Maybe not quite THAT dry. However, if the RAP/HRRR solution is correct, with that southwest wind blowing out off the Ozark Plataea... we may be looking at a blow torch kind of day with unprecedented warmth for February.
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Post by mchafin on Feb 26, 2024 22:37:50 GMT -6
“Unprecedented warmth”
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Feb 27, 2024 2:34:27 GMT -6
I just had a brief sprinkle of rain at 230 AM. Few little pop up cells scattered across St. Charles County. That's unexpected.
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Post by amstilost on Feb 27, 2024 5:50:33 GMT -6
I just had a brief sprinkle of rain at 230 AM. Few little pop up cells scattered across St. Charles County. That's unexpected. I just let the dog out and noticed the concrete driveway was pretty 'damp'. I just figured it was sweating from the warmth. Then I seen your comment and looked at the past 4 hour radar loop. Pretty sure now it sprinkled/showered here also. Didn't enter my head until now that the 'sweating' concrete would probably not be there with the constant winds since yesterday.🤔🤔 Looked like some pretty stout thundershowers down south of Mt. Vernon earlier also. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 27, 2024 6:12:06 GMT -6
The HRRR looks pretty aggressive mixing out the low-level moisture with a big void of SBCAPE developing along and W of the river. Seems like that model has a bias of overmixing/warming. Today continues to be a very conditional threat around here but further N/NE closer to the SLP track is another story.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 27, 2024 6:58:04 GMT -6
I am amused seeing the train station platform heavily salted and it being 78 degrees today 😂
Tomorrow looks icy though, so I get it
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Feb 27, 2024 7:32:10 GMT -6
I am amused seeing the train station platform heavily salted and it being 78 degrees today 😂 Tomorrow looks icy though, so I get it No doubt the salt is drawing tons of moisture, too. |
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Post by bdgwx on Feb 27, 2024 9:17:24 GMT -6
The SPC has the southwest part of area in an elevated fire risk outlook. We don't see fire risk outlooks for our area very often. The HRRR has the metro area dropping below 20% RH with gusty winds so you could make the argument that they could pull that a little further east even.
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