|
|
Post by Snowstorm920 on Mar 14, 2024 19:58:47 GMT -6
Had a couple pieces in my yard that were tea cup size today. What a wild day. I would say the slight risk could of easily been enhanced in the metro The SPC made a couple questionable calls today. First, not extending the enhanced risk further NE into our area for the hail risk. Second, not upgrading the Indiana and Ohio areas for the tornado risk. Ohio in particular has had potentially numerous strong tornadoes touch down. |
|
|
|
Post by tedrick65 on Mar 14, 2024 20:04:44 GMT -6
Disappointing from a rain standpoint in High Ridge. 0.19" around 7:00 this morning and 0.41" with the afternoon and evening storms. It looks like there were lots of rain jackpots North and South.
|
|
|
|
Post by BRTNWXMAN on Mar 14, 2024 20:19:00 GMT -6
Disappointing from a rain standpoint in High Ridge. 0.19" around 7:00 this morning and 0.41" with the afternoon and evening storms. It looks like there were lots of rain jackpots North and South. I didn't get much over a quarter inch IMBY...the training deep convection set up just to the S as it often does. |
|
|
|
Post by John G -west belleville on Mar 14, 2024 20:23:05 GMT -6
1.01 in the gauge.
Obviously a big hail day with multiple cells producing large destructive hail. Another huge storm for insurance companies. Gotta wonder when hail policies will change
Did any tornadoes get confirmed?
|
|
ilnois
Wishcaster
Columbia, IL
Posts: 123
|
Post by ilnois on Mar 14, 2024 20:25:18 GMT -6
Over 3 inches of rain in Columbia, IL.
|
|
|
|
Post by Snowstorm920 on Mar 14, 2024 20:35:24 GMT -6
Latest storm report map for today Today may be the most significant hail reports on record, surpassing April 19th last year  |
|
|
|
Post by jmg378s on Mar 14, 2024 21:07:37 GMT -6
1.01 in the gauge. Obviously a big hail day with multiple cells producing large destructive hail. Another huge storm for insurance companies. Gotta wonder when hail policies will change Did any tornadoes get confirmed? Wondering that myself. The prime suspect from what I saw was the storm around Maeystown, IL. The warning was eventually tagged as radar confirmed, but when I went back and looked at the radar scans the low CC "hole" signature didn't line up well with reflectivity and velocity signatures. It seemed more indicative of low CC inflow that is typical of supercells, but at the same time suspicious enough that it got a radar confirmed tag. So I wonder what the final verdict there is. |
|
|
|
Post by jmg378s on Mar 14, 2024 21:16:33 GMT -6
Latest storm report map for today Today may be the most significant hail reports on record, surpassing April 19th last year Hindsight is 20/20 but hail driven moderate risk would have verified over a large area (including Stl). And not trying to be overly critical but a slight risk for our area was too conservative given forecasts of 2000+ j/kg of CAPE, 50+ kts of shear, and multiple runs of multiple CAMs showing supercell development along the left over boundaries of the morning convection...all that with the context of the 2 previous nights producing significant severe reports with dewpoints in the low/mid 50s. |
|
|
|
Post by BRTNWXMAN on Mar 14, 2024 21:32:24 GMT -6
Agreed, today was a solid MOD risk setup around here...there was nothing conditional about it, but the SPC seemed to hit on that pretty hard.
|
|
|
|
Post by Snowstorm920 on Mar 14, 2024 21:36:45 GMT -6
The only thing conditional about today was the tornado threat from the lack of directional shear.
Other than that, it was a classic big hail setup with steep lapse rates and plentiful bulk shear.
|
|
|
|
Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Mar 14, 2024 21:58:32 GMT -6
seeing pictures on social media right down 70 from warrenton through O'Fallon - cars probably totaled, windows smashed out, people holding tennis sized hail stones in their hand (I guess some of them were apple sized as the nws suggests).
|
|
|
|
Post by John G -west belleville on Mar 15, 2024 6:37:27 GMT -6
1.01 in the gauge. Obviously a big hail day with multiple cells producing large destructive hail. Another huge storm for insurance companies. Gotta wonder when hail policies will change Did any tornadoes get confirmed? Wondering that myself. The prime suspect from what I saw was the storm around Maeystown, IL. The warning was eventually tagged as radar confirmed, but when I went back and looked at the radar scans the low CC "hole" signature didn't line up well with reflectivity and velocity signatures. It seemed more indicative of low CC inflow that is typical of supercells, but at the same time suspicious enough that it got a radar confirmed tag. So I wonder what the final verdict there is. Kinda weird that it was showing as observed and a pds on radarscope but no report. There are 2 surveys this morning. One near Brighton but I think that was from the morning. Don't remember where the other is but it wasn't maeystown |
|
|
|
Post by Chris Higgins on Mar 15, 2024 6:47:04 GMT -6
Latest storm report map for today Today may be the most significant hail reports on record, surpassing April 19th last year Hindsight is 20/20 but hail driven moderate risk would have verified over a large area (including Stl). And not trying to be overly critical but a slight risk for our area was too conservative given forecasts of 2000+ j/kg of CAPE, 50+ kts of shear, and multiple runs of multiple CAMs showing supercell development along the left over boundaries of the morning convection...all that with the context of the 2 previous nights producing significant severe reports with dewpoints in the low/mid 50s. I can understand holding back on the 7am update, but by 11am the outflow was retreating and skies had cleared out completely. For all the enhanced risks that are issued for less than ideal set-ups, the ultra conservative approach to yesterday's event is/was surprising. |
|
|
|
Post by Chris Higgins on Mar 15, 2024 6:50:23 GMT -6
Wondering that myself. The prime suspect from what I saw was the storm around Maeystown, IL. The warning was eventually tagged as radar confirmed, but when I went back and looked at the radar scans the low CC "hole" signature didn't line up well with reflectivity and velocity signatures. It seemed more indicative of low CC inflow that is typical of supercells, but at the same time suspicious enough that it got a radar confirmed tag. So I wonder what the final verdict there is. Kinda weird that it was showing as observed and a pds on radarscope but no report. There are 2 surveys this morning. One near Brighton but I think that was from the morning. Don't remember where the other is but it wasn't maeystown EM reported there was nothing in Maeystown. I think both surveys are from the AM. Other is Charlack in north County. |
|
|
|
Post by sgdragons on Mar 15, 2024 6:59:44 GMT -6
Impressive winds on the front side, not much rain on the back side. Guess I should be glad we didn't catch the hail everybody else did.
|
|
|
|
Post by WEAXWATCHER on Mar 15, 2024 7:08:37 GMT -6
Hindsight is 20/20 but hail driven moderate risk would have verified over a large area (including Stl). And not trying to be overly critical but a slight risk for our area was too conservative given forecasts of 2000+ j/kg of CAPE, 50+ kts of shear, and multiple runs of multiple CAMs showing supercell development along the left over boundaries of the morning convection...all that with the context of the 2 previous nights producing significant severe reports with dewpoints in the low/mid 50s. I can understand holding back on the 7am update, but by 11am the outflow was retreating and skies had cleared out completely. For all the enhanced risks that are issued for less than ideal set-ups, the ultra conservative approach to yesterday's event is/was surprising. If I may, there was one tornado in the "Enhanced" risk area yesterday in Collin Texas. There were 7 across IN and OH in the "Slight" risk area. There was discussion yesterday in one of the earlier day one updates where it was thought that there was going to be an additional "enhanced" risk area included on the northern portion of the severe risk area. I don't know why they didn't. In my mind, it would have made sense to just pull the trigger and make the enhanced risk where they intended, change as needed and just push that there is a very "conditional" environment and it could go one way or the other.
That said, I know that the weather forecasters get all the crap from the outcome, no matter what happens. Its a thin line and one I do not envy. I do wish, however, that more people would use common sense and just take the threat of severe weather, no matter how small, a lot more seriously.
Enjoy your day folks, enjoy the beach Chris.
|
|
|
|
Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Mar 15, 2024 7:47:18 GMT -6
I dont know why there are ppl who are not believing the large hail reports across warrenton, wright city, ofallon. They say it didnt happen, just peanut size
|
|
|
|
Post by WEAXWATCHER on Mar 15, 2024 7:50:11 GMT -6
There is some video and pictures on FB from the Staunton IL area where about 100 cars are severely damaged along I55.
|
|
|
|
Post by REB on Mar 15, 2024 8:32:01 GMT -6
John G., did you have hail?
|
|
|
|
Post by BRTNWXMAN on Mar 15, 2024 8:37:32 GMT -6
I dont know why there are ppl who are not believing the large hail reports across warrenton, wright city, ofallon. They say it didnt happen, just peanut size They probably think the earth is flat too... |
|
|
|
Post by bdgwx on Mar 15, 2024 8:45:42 GMT -6
The latest 5d GEFS time lagged forecast for cloud coverage is 57% at 4/8 18Z in Cape Girardeau. This is higher than the climatological average.
Cycle Forecast Members GEFS
--------------------------------------
2024-03-05 66 21 66
2024-03-06 54 42 51
2024-03-07 50 63 47
2024-03-08 52 84 55
2024-03-09 52 105 51
2024-03-10 49 105 |--46
2024-03-11 52 105 |--55
2024-03-12 57 105 |--63
2024-03-13 58 105 |--58
2024-03-14 57 <--- 105 <--|--56
|
|
|
|
Post by jmg378s on Mar 15, 2024 9:07:43 GMT -6
Local office confirms EF0 in Charlack.
|
|
|
|
Post by bdgwx on Mar 15, 2024 9:25:03 GMT -6
Hot of the press we have [ Trees et al. 2024] who did both a modeling and observational study on the eclipse cloud thinning effect. 1) Thermal clouds begin dissipating at 15% obscuration. Thinning is delayed because of the parcel travel time from the surface to the LCL. 2) Over the region of study the modeled cloud cover went from 33% to 14% at the moment of totality. 3) Over the region of study the observed cloud cover went from 34% to 8% at the moment of totality. 4) Thermal cloud growth explodes about 30 minutes after totality as the solar flux was restored. It might be interesting to note that the study was conducted for scenario where totality occurs close to local noon and thus peak solar elevation and insolation. That matches up pretty well with the timing for the upcoming eclipse. It's important to note that the eclipse cloud thinning effect only effects thermally driven clouds. If there are synoptically driven clouds it probably won't have much if any effect on those. |
|
|
|
Post by Jeffmw on Mar 15, 2024 9:50:46 GMT -6
Who watches the movie Twister after storms like this.
|
|
|
|
Post by koll27–Waterloo, IL on Mar 15, 2024 9:55:34 GMT -6
I dont know why there are ppl who are not believing the large hail reports across warrenton, wright city, ofallon. They say it didnt happen, just peanut size My brother lives in O'Fallon and he said his house and fence looked like someone took a gun and shot at his house. He said it was baseball-sized. |
|
|
|
Post by John G -west belleville on Mar 15, 2024 11:26:08 GMT -6
John G., did you have hail? I was at work in Fairview. My wife says no, but Frivs isn't far and had some. |
|
|
|
Post by John G -west belleville on Mar 15, 2024 11:28:26 GMT -6
The latest 5d GEFS time lagged forecast for cloud coverage is 57% at 4/8 18Z in Cape Girardeau. This is higher than the climatological average. Cycle Forecast Members GEFS
--------------------------------------
2024-03-05 66 21 66
2024-03-06 54 42 51
2024-03-07 50 63 47
2024-03-08 52 84 55
2024-03-09 52 105 51
2024-03-10 49 105 |--46
2024-03-11 52 105 |--55
2024-03-12 57 105 |--63
2024-03-13 58 105 |--58
2024-03-14 57 <--- 105 <--|--56My low tech watching !AccuNotWx!.com for pickneyville, IL continues to show sunshine and patchy clouds with a high of 60. |
|
|
|
Post by John G -west belleville on Mar 15, 2024 11:29:32 GMT -6
I dont know why there are ppl who are not believing the large hail reports across warrenton, wright city, ofallon. They say it didnt happen, just peanut size A friend of mine runs a Geotechnical firm out off 70 and Bryan. His truck got demolished with hail. |
|
|
|
Post by bdgwx on Mar 15, 2024 11:38:36 GMT -6
The latest 5d GEFS time lagged forecast for cloud coverage is 57% at 4/8 18Z in Cape Girardeau. This is higher than the climatological average. Cycle Forecast Members GEFS
--------------------------------------
2024-03-05 66 21 66
2024-03-06 54 42 51
2024-03-07 50 63 47
2024-03-08 52 84 55
2024-03-09 52 105 51
2024-03-10 49 105 |--46
2024-03-11 52 105 |--55
2024-03-12 57 105 |--63
2024-03-13 58 105 |--58
2024-03-14 57 <--- 105 <--|--56My low tech watching !AccuNotWx!.com for pickneyville, IL continues to show sunshine and patchy clouds with a high of 60. The !AccuNotWx! forecasts have been criticized heavily by meteorologists. |
|
|
|
Post by REB on Mar 15, 2024 11:57:26 GMT -6
John G., did you have hail? I was at work in Fairview. My wife says no, but Frivs isn't far and had some. I couldn’t see any on sister’s cameras |
|
