|
|
Post by chowderhead54 on Feb 13, 2024 18:26:07 GMT -6
Come on everyone The Germans want to throw us a bone..lol they know how starved we are..hey I'm in Waterloo and part German big German population here..I'll keep hope alive...well if it fails I'll just head over to the Stubborn German in town and drown my Winter sorrows.. I always get my meat processed down that way(usually Trenton), the Germans know their sausage, lol Yes, I know the place you speak of in Trenton! The Stubborn does a great festival in late September celebration of ales and great meats. Also a Waterloo plug..Mid May 3rd annual BBQ and Micro Beer fest. Fantastic time over 90 home brews and some great eats sausages, awesome BBQ. Highly suggest enjoying this Saturday in May..I know it's a drive from Brighton but... |
|
|
|
Post by maddogchief on Feb 13, 2024 18:32:20 GMT -6
Just some slight differences between the gfs and euro for Friday 😂 A blend of the 12z GFS and EC paints a pretty snowy picture for much of the region Friday. Can't wait to see how that goes wrong... Well, two words. 1st word, three syllables. 2nd word, one syllable. First word sounds a lot like make believe butter. 2nd word was a sought after commodity that caused the 1987 invasion of the planet Druidia utilizing the super robot Mega-Maid. |
|
|
|
Post by cozpregon on Feb 13, 2024 19:04:09 GMT -6
Margarine Schwartz
|
|
|
|
Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Feb 13, 2024 20:07:03 GMT -6
The ICON reminds me of the old GEM that was always over-amped with a major cold bias. Come on everyone The Germans want to throw us a bone..lol they know how starved we are..hey I'm in Waterloo and part German big German population here..I'll keep hope alive...well if it fails I'll just head over to the Stubborn German in town and drown my Winter sorrows.. Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor? |
|
|
|
Post by mchafin on Feb 13, 2024 20:56:16 GMT -6
Come on everyone The Germans want to throw us a bone..lol they know how starved we are..hey I'm in Waterloo and part German big German population here..I'll keep hope alive...well if it fails I'll just head over to the Stubborn German in town and drown my Winter sorrows.. Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor? Forget it…he’s rolling |
|
|
|
Post by Snowman99 on Feb 13, 2024 22:07:37 GMT -6
Gfs is another tick south, brings snow into metro now. Icon is about the same as last run and GEM has a bit more than last run. Can't wait till this disappears Thursday night.
|
|
|
|
Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 13, 2024 23:55:44 GMT -6
The longer range version of the IBM model in house has a nice pasting of snow sweeping across most of the area Friday afternoon and evening. It actually cranks out 4-6 inches along the Missouri River.
|
|
|
|
Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 14, 2024 0:42:00 GMT -6
The european and the I b m model are nearly identical with plqcement. The only difference is the european is showing about half as much snow.
|
|
|
|
Post by dschreib on Feb 14, 2024 7:41:36 GMT -6
I was in Knoxville that Saturday in November 2022, so I missed our most significant snow in the past couple years.
|
|
|
|
Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 14, 2024 8:32:24 GMT -6
The IBM continues to look overcooked lol. I wish I could unsee it.
Showing upwards of 7 inches for STL. The main reason appears to be a slower north to south translation of the banding feature...so there is what amounts to training along I-70. That would make a lot of people happy. But it is waaaaaaaaay out on its own with that kind of total. From a simple "blobology" perspective... it looks very similar to the Euro still... just over sauced. If anything, this latest run of the IBM model has shifted the focus a row of counties more south
Either way... it does look like some snow is coming our way Friday. Late AM through mid-afternoon is the prime time for most of the area.
I think the NWS wording of 1-3 seems reasonable at this juncture although I'm not pinning my name or forecast to that just yet.
|
|
|
|
Post by Snowman99 on Feb 14, 2024 8:48:07 GMT -6
4-8 it is
|
|
|
|
Post by dschreib on Feb 14, 2024 9:00:41 GMT -6
Lock it in. Chris said so. Blast it out to the facebooks.
I already put it on Myspace.
|
|
|
|
Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 14, 2024 9:23:29 GMT -6
Very funny!
I think we are going to need to watch for sleet with this. Looking at the soundings... much of the lift is below the DGZ which may lead to more ice and less snowflakage on the southern flank of the band.
Could this be how we mess up our latest potential snow?
|
|
|
|
Post by Snowman99 on Feb 14, 2024 9:28:55 GMT -6
Yes. The answer to will we screw up our next potentia snowfall, the answer is always yes.
|
|
|
|
Post by STGOutdoors on Feb 14, 2024 9:30:35 GMT -6
This is looking more and more like a nuissance type event but just enough to cause traffic problems during rush hour Friday.
|
|
|
|
Post by dschreib on Feb 14, 2024 10:10:45 GMT -6
Very funny! I think we are going to need to watch for sleet with this. Looking at the soundings... much of the lift is below the DGZ which may lead to more ice and less snowflakage on the southern flank of the band. Could this be how we mess up our latest potential snow? No, but here's how this one will play out. Surface temps will be plenty warm to make it a normally slushy non-event, but an hour of sleet at the onset will make roads impassable.
Have fun with this one!
|
|
bfsmith81
Wishcaster
Edwardsville, IL
Posts: 150 
Snowfall Events: Winter of 2023-2024:
01/05/24-1/06/24: 2.5" (Melted almost immediately)
01/12/24-1/13/24: 0.25"
01/15/24: 0.75"
01/18/24-01/19/24: 0.5"
02/16/24: 4.25"
Winter of 2023-2024 Total So Far: 8.25"
|
Post by bfsmith81 on Feb 14, 2024 10:23:30 GMT -6
Very funny! I think we are going to need to watch for sleet with this. Looking at the soundings... much of the lift is below the DGZ which may lead to more ice and less snowflakage on the southern flank of the band. Could this be how we mess up our latest potential snow? 12Z RGEM starting to show that - keeps the southern half of the metro under sleet for about half of the event. |
|
|
|
Post by cardsnweather on Feb 14, 2024 13:02:45 GMT -6
Euro is a solid 1-3"
|
|
|
|
Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 14, 2024 15:42:31 GMT -6
Yeah model consensus looks pretty solid for at least an inch or two...the NAM is further N and warmer, which is a little concerning, especially for the S half of the area. |
|
|
|
Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Feb 14, 2024 21:32:27 GMT -6
So, when I read my zone forecast for St. Charles County:
Snow. Rain likely with a slight chance of sleet in the morning, then rain in the afternoon. Light snow accumulation. Much cooler. Near steady temperature in the mid 30s. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation 90 percent.
Friday just sounds like a slopfest with some morning snow and sleet followed by rain in the afternoon. Keep in mind the warm and high February sun and temps in the mid 30s if the snow does not turn to rain. Timing is key on impact, but I would not expect a beautiful winter wonderland. Sounds more like a grassy accumulation event to me.
|
|
|
|
Post by MakeitRain on Feb 14, 2024 22:07:39 GMT -6
How are the models going to take this one from us?
|
|
gonefishin - WashMO
Junior Forecaster
Washington, Franklin County, MO
Posts: 491
Snowfall Events: 2013-2014: A lot!
2014-2015: If you forecast it, it will come!
|
Post by gonefishin - WashMO on Feb 14, 2024 22:13:05 GMT -6
How are the models going to take this one from us? It almost reminds me of Mizzou football before last season. They could always find a new way to lose. It’s like the weather has taken over doing “Mizzou things.” |
|
|
|
Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 14, 2024 23:15:19 GMT -6
The UK looks weird on Pivotal Weather. It shows 0.4 liquid precip with temps below freezing in STL, but generates almost no snowfall.
|
|
|
|
Post by WeatherGuyRyan on Feb 15, 2024 3:49:44 GMT -6
Pea sized hail in Shrewsbury. Lasted maybe 2 minutes.
|
|
|
|
Post by sgdragons on Feb 15, 2024 5:25:31 GMT -6
Two things I’ll stand on, storms on or around the 16th of February every year, and snow going north of us this year. Bring on spring.
|
|
|
|
Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Feb 15, 2024 7:04:00 GMT -6
Well i think the coverage of snow will be smaller than what model ouput would lead one to believe, especially on the southern extent, and if you get snow accumulations will quickly disappear. With temps in the mid 30s in metro, im betting the highest accums to be well north of town (1 to 2 inches in troy and perhaps 3 inches north of there like in bowling green and places like that and brtns area on the il side as well), and lesser amts from 70 southward on mo side. A littleburger for most of metro.
|
|
|
|
Post by dschreib on Feb 15, 2024 8:43:24 GMT -6
Classic low that spills over the Rockies and rides the Red River--at least according to the 06Z Goofus. It's the stuff we used to dream of.
What could possibly go wrong?
|
|
|
|
Post by cardsnweather on Feb 15, 2024 9:09:30 GMT -6
Definitely looks like there could be some decent banding that gets someone 3-4"
|
|
|
|
Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 15, 2024 9:13:30 GMT -6
Well the models haven’t pulled the rug beneath our feet for tomorrow yet
I’ll still wait until it’s snowing before I get invested in this system lol
|
|
|
|
Post by cardsnweather on Feb 15, 2024 9:30:38 GMT -6
RGEM is really good for Northern areas.
|
|
