Chris's Corner - Welcome to the Warmest Start Ever to Feb!

Shame the Gulf's cut off.

The track of the 850mb low will be the big key tomorrow I think. The various models show quite a bit of cooling as the precip breaks out just north of the track of the 850mb low and this sets up a rather intense temperature gradient near or just south of I-70. Considering the heaviest snow is typically favored in the -3 to -5c 850mb isotherms... that paints a southward sagging and easterward moving band of snow across the region through the day... with the heaviest snow along and north of I-70. South of the 850mb low... it will be tough to get much snow to accumulate because snowfall rates will be much lighter in the wake of the low... because there will be no warm air advection component to the lift...just the forcing from the advancing cold. Unfortunately, the 850mb track appears to be near or just south of STL... which splits the audience as usual!

The model output I'm showing is the IBM/GRAF model (the in house model). It has been consistently the southern most output. It is probably a little too far south... but it gives you the idea. The snowfall totals map leans on the GEFS snowfall for placement and closely matches my current thoughts. The 1-2...spots to 3... is probably a bit broader than it will be in reality based on what I think will be the 850mb track. But I wanted to leave some wiggle room.

Winter weather advisory up north, nothing for metro

uh, where's this 'big update'?

Storm cancelled…..😂😂

Dangit Tilawn, take that off.

Be looking forward to your 14 additional forecasts this month for March.

Well nws is not impressed for the metro.

Lets just put a fork in this winter

Holy cow!

My sons moving home from NC tomorrow in a big uhaul

Is the drought over? I won’t worry about winter precip then. Looking forward to spring storms with rain!

I actually think this one may over achieve a little. If temperatures actually drop to near freezing before sunrise... they will likely not rebound much. This will allow ground temperatures to cool off as well... just as the precip starts to fall. Throw in some sleet at the onset, and I think this one may be a touch more efficient on the accumulation side. Time of year does matter now... but so do dynamics... and the models are showing multiple mesoscale bands that may train over the same areas for a time. In fact, radar may look a bit like a zebra for a few hours tomorrow with rows of narrow snow bands pushing east and easing south.

Or it could all shift 200 miles south or north on the 00z run like Monday 😬