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Post by showtime - Marissa on Oct 5, 2024 10:33:55 GMT -6
If it plays out as currently modeled Tampa is in trouble. And FEMA has no more money because they spent it elsewhere …. I won’t bring up how they supposedly spent it ……. Things are not going great right now |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Oct 5, 2024 10:43:22 GMT -6
If it plays out as currently modeled Tampa is in trouble. Hopefully the shear keeps this one from really taking off but the fact that it's coming into the RER of an anti-cyclonic jetstreak on approach is concerning as that will boost the upper level outflow. |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Oct 5, 2024 10:51:51 GMT -6
If it plays out as currently modeled Tampa is in trouble. And FEMA has no more money because they spent it elsewhere …. I won’t bring up how they supposedly spent it ……. Things are not going great right now This is a lie. Ironically, for Puerto Rico that did happen but at least they got paper !Drying Cloth!s. |
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Post by Snowman99 on Oct 5, 2024 10:57:35 GMT -6
Yeah it's a bunch of bs conspiracy theory crap. They have not run out of money. Get real man lol. Fema had to pit up an area on their website to debunk all the crap floaring around out there about Helene. It's pretty sad how a certain group of people spread this junk. It's hurting people.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Oct 5, 2024 11:02:35 GMT -6
Misallocation of funds and a failed response to hundreds of thousands who’ve lost the ability to drive to the pharmacy or grocery store (assuming their car still exists) due to roads no longer being present has hurt a lot of people too.
By the way, I felt the same way about the Katrina response and still do. One doesn’t have to be all the way on one side or the other to recognize and acknowledge these things.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Oct 5, 2024 11:16:19 GMT -6
Misallocation of funds and a failed response to hundreds of thousands who’ve lost the ability to drive to the pharmacy or grocery store (assuming their car still exists) due to roads no longer being present has hurt a lot of people too. By the way, I felt the same way about the Katrina response and still do. One doesn’t have to be all the way on one side or the other to recognize and acknowledge these things. You don’t get to lie about the disaster relief fund. End of story |
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Oct 5, 2024 11:24:24 GMT -6
We should just move on from the subject….. you can find things on the internet that support both side’s ….. lets pray everyone gets what they need …. Having family in South Carolina and still suffering mightily…. I have a pretty strong opinion of what’s going on
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Post by STGOutdoors on Oct 5, 2024 11:29:52 GMT -6
We should just move on from the subject….. you can find things on the internet that support both side’s ….. lets pray everyone gets what they need …. Having family in South Carolina and still suffering mightily…. I have a pretty strong opinion of what’s going on I have a couple close friends in western NC as well, cooking food by fireside in what’s left of their back yard since the storm. But I agree, I just hope everyone gets the help they need. |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Oct 5, 2024 11:30:15 GMT -6
We should just move on from the subject….. you can find things on the internet that support both side’s ….. lets pray everyone gets what they need …. Having family in South Carolina and still suffering mightily…. I have a pretty strong opinion of what’s going on I have a couple close friends in western NC as well, cooking food by fireside in what’s left of their back yard since the storm. But I agree, I just hope everyone gets the help they need. |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Oct 5, 2024 11:49:36 GMT -6
Reviewing 12z hurricane models a CAT 3 or 4 at landfall seems very in play.
Positives are it appears fast moving and is likely to miss virtually all of the Helene impact area.
I’m highly skeptical of a Tampa landfall based on history, but this thing has an unusual attack angle
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Oct 5, 2024 11:58:03 GMT -6
Reviewing 12z hurricane models a CAT 3 or 4 at landfall seems very in play. Positives are it appears fast moving and is likely to miss virtually all of the Helene impact area. I’m highly skeptical of a Tampa landfall based on history, but this thing has an unusual attack angle Yea this thing looks like it will be a buzz saw going almost due east ….. at least that will make the impact zone smaller |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Oct 5, 2024 12:06:24 GMT -6
Reviewing 12z hurricane models a CAT 3 or 4 at landfall seems very in play. Positives are it appears fast moving and is likely to miss virtually all of the Helene impact area. I’m highly skeptical of a Tampa landfall based on history, but this thing has an unusual attack angle Agree with you on both points. Any history of a track like this? |
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Post by Snowman99 on Oct 5, 2024 12:10:47 GMT -6
One of these days Tampa's luck is going to run out. They are way way way over due. Could ot be next week? Stay tuned.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Oct 5, 2024 12:15:07 GMT -6
Reviewing 12z hurricane models a CAT 3 or 4 at landfall seems very in play. Positives are it appears fast moving and is likely to miss virtually all of the Helene impact area. I’m highly skeptical of a Tampa landfall based on history, but this thing has an unusual attack angle Agree with you on both points. Any history of a track like this? I can’t recall one moving like this personally. I assume if you were to get one to hit Tampa, it would be like this. The size of the hurricane will probably allow for rapid changes in intensity so could see it weakening quite a bit right at landfall. Lots to watch. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Oct 5, 2024 12:48:41 GMT -6
This is one of the oddest tropical systems I can remember.
Models only caught onto this yesterday and landfall will be in a few days.
Shear in the northern gulf is very high so this thing will be riding a fine line between a favorable jet interaction and getting sheared apart.
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Post by John G -west belleville on Oct 5, 2024 13:33:42 GMT -6
This is one of the oddest tropical systems I can remember. Models only caught onto this yesterday and landfall will be in a few days. Shear in the northern gulf is very high so this thing will be riding a fine line between a favorable jet interaction and getting sheared apart. But we have been watching the area for what send like a couple weeks now for a storm to form. Just seems to be a little different than originally planned |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Oct 5, 2024 14:48:41 GMT -6
Life threatening hurricanes are not political. If that's where somebody wants to go with the discussion, I invite you to share your thoughts on a different platform where it is more appropriate. I respect everyone's opinion, but this is not the place to share them.
So everyone... please take a deep breathe and relax.
Let's focus on the threat to Florida. This is a very unusual setup and it seems to be one that should favor a hybrid system... but models are insisting that there will be a solid tropical core at the center of it all. Assuming that it evolves into more of a hybrid/subtropical system would also expand the wind field making for a prolonged onshore flow near and south of the center... possibly well south. I hope Tampa residents didn't start repairs along the waterfront just yet. If this comes in just north of Tampa Bay... it will be bad!
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Post by dschreib on Oct 5, 2024 15:11:10 GMT -6
This is one of the oddest tropical systems I can remember. Models only caught onto this yesterday and landfall will be in a few days. Shear in the northern gulf is very high so this thing will be riding a fine line between a favorable jet interaction and getting sheared apart. It's going to be running parallel to the shear, though. |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Oct 5, 2024 17:30:56 GMT -6
18z hurricane models going crazy with a CAT 5.
If that actually happens, would expect cycling given the small size and a good chance it is weakening by impact.
Still incredible to see modeled though.
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Oct 5, 2024 18:19:26 GMT -6
18z hurricane models going crazy with a CAT 5. If that actually happens, would expect cycling given the small size and a good chance it is weakening by impact. Still incredible to see modeled though. If this evenings GFS verifies Tampa is in big trouble |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Oct 5, 2024 18:31:15 GMT -6
18z hurricane models going crazy with a CAT 5. If that actually happens, would expect cycling given the small size and a good chance it is weakening by impact. Still incredible to see modeled though. If this evenings GFS verifies Tampa is in big trouble Hurricane models took a good jog north into the notch which based on appearance alone is historically more likely. |
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Post by dschreib on Oct 5, 2024 19:45:40 GMT -6
SSTs are TOASTY where it is right now, and it's really only under 10-15...maybe 20kts of shear. Wouldn't be surprised if it exploded overnight.
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Post by dschreib on Oct 5, 2024 19:48:19 GMT -6
Outlook for TC Intensification Based on Current
Env. Shear Values and MPI Differential
Forecast Interval : 6hr 12hr 18hr 24hr
N F F F
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Post by dschreib on Oct 5, 2024 20:46:51 GMT -6
Before it went dark on the 1km VIS, it looked like cloud tops were really going vertical near the center.
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Post by REB on Oct 6, 2024 4:30:10 GMT -6
Woogie is having some medical issues and needs all of your prayers.
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Oct 6, 2024 6:43:48 GMT -6
Woogie is having some medical issues and needs all of your prayers. Prayers heading Woogie’s way 🙏 |
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Oct 6, 2024 7:00:43 GMT -6
Woogie is having some medical issues and needs all of your prayers. Prayers said. |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Oct 6, 2024 7:25:54 GMT -6
Praying for you Woogie!
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Post by jeepers on Oct 6, 2024 8:41:58 GMT -6
Prayers Woogie. ❤️
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Post by Snowman99 on Oct 6, 2024 8:46:10 GMT -6
Thinking of you woogie!
The stuff about man making and manipulating hurricanes has kind of always been a thing I guess. But it's really gotten ridiculous since Helene and no w Milton. It's very sad and scary.
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