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Post by Chris Higgins on Sept 25, 2024 21:47:12 GMT -6
     One of the more complex weather events in recent memory in terms of hurricanes and post hurricane impacts. The fujiwhara effect will be key to how this all plays out... but so to will be the final intensity and size of Helene... because that will determine how long Helene is able to maintain it's independent circulation before getting swallowed up by the developing upper level low. Could this all be a preview of how weather systems will behave this winter? Hmmmmmmmmmm?  ? Anyway... I still think the right way to go is to keep it wet here in St. Louis... with a sharp drop to the northwest. I think the metro and I-44/I-70 corridors could be up for 1 inch... maybe 1.5 inches....but with a very sharp drop northwest of there. On the other hand... areas to the south of there could be looking at 2-4 inches of rain for the weekend. For the most part... even that heavier rain should be reasonably well tolerated considering the lack of rain recently. The impacts on the southeastern US could be catastrophic... both along the coast but also deep inland. The storm surge could be historic... pushing 20 feet in some spots north of Cedar Key. The winds will be significant well inland because of the forward speed. Tree damage may extend into TN and KY. Heck, we could see some 40+ mph wind gusts over southern Illinois late Friday depending on the exact track of evolution of the merging systems. As for the Billy Joel concert Friday... there is a chance that the first wave of rain breaks for a few hours during the evening Friday and the timing may be just long enough at the right time to allow for the concert to go on. The question will be whether or not they are willing to go forward with the field being so wet. Friday night football will be damp as well. I could write a lot more... but time is short. HOLY COW... I just realized THIS version of MTW is now 10 years old! That's crazy! The fresh smell of a new thread is here. Happy Fall everyone! |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Sept 26, 2024 0:18:40 GMT -6
Latest recon pass into Helene has found stagnating pressure and winds
She is struggling when she should be intensifying rapidly
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Post by dschreib on Sept 26, 2024 4:49:49 GMT -6
Last few frames ion radar looks like convection is starting to fill in on the southwest flank. Definitely been a struggle.
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sgdragons
Wishcaster
Posts: 145
Member is Online
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Post by sgdragons on Sept 26, 2024 7:50:02 GMT -6
Guess I'll have the coffee ready tomorrow. Another Friday night lights in the rain. Been an odd year for that.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Sept 26, 2024 8:34:45 GMT -6
Man, she’s trying to fill in the SW quadrant and close off the eye! Running out of time though
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Post by STGOutdoors on Sept 26, 2024 9:03:09 GMT -6
Nope, ain't gonna happen, it ingested a slug of dry air. Still a bad storm with crazy rain over a massive area and storm surge.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Sept 26, 2024 9:22:58 GMT -6
Nope, ain't gonna happen, it ingested a slug of dry air. Still a bad storm with crazy rain over a massive area and storm surge. Ya looks like dry air is trying to wrap back into the core from the south. I still think it can get to a low end category 3 before landfall but not sure about more than that. |
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Post by REB on Sept 26, 2024 10:39:16 GMT -6
Concerned about the Belleville Marathon Saturday. I work the 5-9 a.m. shift
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Post by Chris Higgins on Sept 26, 2024 11:31:47 GMT -6
Concerned about the Belleville Marathon Saturday. I work the 5-9 a.m. shift You actually may catch a break there at that time! |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Sept 26, 2024 11:33:51 GMT -6
Satellite view is rapidly improving. The eye is clearing out and becoming much more defined. I suspect the next advisory will include a more substantial increase in strength.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Sept 26, 2024 11:45:49 GMT -6
Satellite view is rapidly improving. The eye is clearing out and becoming much more defined. I suspect the next advisory will include a more substantial increase in strength. Was coming here to post that. She looks healthier now than ever. Another 12 hours or so would have been a real bad deal, though this is still going to be real nasty. So amazing with today's satellite image definitions to see the radial "shockwave" after a hurricane undergoes those periods of convective strengthening. |
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Post by jmg378s on Sept 26, 2024 11:48:16 GMT -6
I agree, Helene appears to be clearing that last gulp of dry air and IR temps are cooling again with new convection firing and wrapping around what appears to be a discernable eye now. Recon currently in the storm is finding falling pressures.
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Post by John G -west belleville on Sept 26, 2024 12:23:28 GMT -6
Look at some of the rainfall numbers up in the Carolinas. 20 plus inches. Yikes
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Post by Snowman99 on Sept 26, 2024 12:31:35 GMT -6
Just upgraded to cat 3 with 120 mph winds. It's happening folks. Rapid intensification right before landfall. Pretty much as expected.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Sept 26, 2024 12:48:39 GMT -6
Look at that band of cells off shore of Tampa...I bet there's a dozen waterspouts at least right now.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Sept 26, 2024 13:59:53 GMT -6
Helene is finally taking off. I think the favorable interaction with the jet streak to its north may have been the kick in the pants it needed to get going.
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Post by Labrat-O'Fallon IL on Sept 26, 2024 14:08:42 GMT -6
The OEM (or governor, wasn't paying too much attention due to work) told those who didn't evacuate to write their name, age, and address on their body so they can be identified when their body is found. Eep.
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Post by gfrig - Troy, MO on Sept 26, 2024 14:11:45 GMT -6
Waffle House index activated. Reports are that some Tallahassee Waffle House locations have been closed.
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Post by jmg378s on Sept 26, 2024 14:18:23 GMT -6
The last recon pass measured an 8mb drop in 1.5 hours!
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Sept 26, 2024 14:38:29 GMT -6
The last recon pass measured an 8mb drop in 1.5 hours! Not good...she's going boom at the worst possible time |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Sept 26, 2024 14:45:59 GMT -6
Yup now that’s a real eye. Lots of strengthening can happen in 6 hours!
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Post by jmg378s on Sept 26, 2024 14:59:22 GMT -6
Next recon flight is on it's way and should be in the storm soon. In the meantime GOES ADT T#s continue to climb sharply indicating continued rapid intensification.
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Post by Snowman99 on Sept 26, 2024 15:09:41 GMT -6
Very Michael-esque
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Sept 26, 2024 15:18:53 GMT -6
It’s a good thing she’s moving fast or else this would be a Michael repeat
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Sept 26, 2024 15:26:36 GMT -6
Yup now that’s a real eye. Lots of strengthening can happen in 6 hours! Eyewall is still open on the WSW flank but it's trying hard to close off. |
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Post by jmg378s on Sept 26, 2024 15:41:05 GMT -6
I wonder how much of that is attenuation through the intense convection in eastern eyewall relative to the Tampa radar?
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Post by Chris Higgins on Sept 26, 2024 16:09:00 GMT -6
Holy cow... the satellite changes even in the past several hours are remarkable! Helene looks incredibly dangerous and destructive on satellite now. Forecast to reach Cat 4 at landfall.
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Post by bdgwx on Sept 26, 2024 16:17:17 GMT -6
Her kinetic energy is topping 100 TJ. She's going to rip parts of the Florida coast up pretty good.
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Post by Snowman99 on Sept 26, 2024 16:20:38 GMT -6
Pressure around d 947 now. Flight level winds of 137 it's. Should be upped to a cat 4 at 6pm. Still intensifying rapidly. It might be moving fast..but still an outside chance of 155 or 160.
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Post by bdgwx on Sept 26, 2024 16:21:27 GMT -6
Hurricane Helene Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024
620 PM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024
...HELENE NOW AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE...
A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft currently investigating Helene
recently found that the maximum sustained winds have increased to
130 mph (215 km/h). The minimum central pressure has also decreased
to 947 mb (27.96 inches) based on dropsonde data.
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