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Post by Chris Higgins on Mar 10, 2022 13:12:23 GMT -6
We got a dusting in the great not so white north. The system shunted way to the south. Glad surgery went well Labrat! Get better soon!
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Post by Chris Higgins on Mar 10, 2022 10:56:12 GMT -6
Really happy with my very conservative forecast for this event.
2-3 possible far NW and West. 1... spots to 2 west/north metro. 1 or less for STL City and points east/southeast. 1-2 southeast of Kaskaskia River tomorrow late afternoon/evening still looks possible.
Most of this will be on the grass...except what falls overnight.
See the map at the head of the thread. It still looks good.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Mar 9, 2022 21:54:09 GMT -6
Ok... been off from TV this week and had a long week of military time from Friday through yesterday so I haven't been all that interested in getting into forecasting. But I figured I need to throw something out there for folks. And since it's a new system for a new month... how about a new thread. The look of the system has changed a little bit since I posted last about this thing. We went through a couple of days where forecast soundings failed to saturate in the layers that were cold enough for snow and it looked like any icy mix was possible. Now, the soundings have come into agreement that we should go from a brief period of rain rain at the onset (very brief) and then a quick transition to wet snow. This is not a classic winter storm in any way, shape or form. There is no deformation zone, no low pressure, not a lot of anything except the mid-level front brushing up against bursts of moisture and warm air advection. I'm just not terribly impressed here. Major limiting factors across most of my viewing area include... 1) warm ground after a couple of days of fairly mild...although not super warm temperatures 2) time of year and time of day... the sun angle is getting up there now and daytime snow accumulation is tough... especially on roads and even more so with marginal surface temperatures. 3) Marginal surface temperatures...likely near freezing...and maybe even above freezing Friday for any snow that falls southeast of I-44 in MO and south of I-70 in Illinois. These limiting factors lead me to believe model snowfall forecasts are much too generous. Snow depth change products are a better fit... and even those may be too beefy when you consider my standard "wet QPF" deduction of around 20% off the top. Some factors that do favor some enhanced snowfall... 1) Temperatures are cold aloft and there is some modest lift through the DGZ...although the greatest lift is above it. The problem is that this happens during the day for areas along and southeast of I-44 in MO and south of I-70 in Illinois and this will limit effective accumulations despite what should be a few hours of decent snowfall rates. 2) Northwest of I-44 in MO and north of metro STL... that better alignment of DGZ and lift occurs at night... and this will allow for a greater opportunity to get a "base" down that will allow the snow to stick longer and begin to accumulate. This fact, along with what appears to just be better dynamics leads me to cover the western and northern parts of my viewing area with 2-3 inches... much of which will be on the grass... but slushy roads are likely...especially those roads that get little sun. Further south... there's just too many things arguing against effecient snowfall... so I'm going to go with a general 1" and spots of 2" for the northern and western STL metro... and taper to 1" or less for STL City and points east. As the sun goes down and the band of snow slithers east... accumulations may ramp up a bit south towards the Kaskaski River because of the lowering sun angle Friday afternoon and evening. But even there... 1-2 seems the best call to me at this juncture.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Mar 8, 2022 15:06:21 GMT -6
I am off KTVI this week... and have been over at Scott for the past 5 days. Thankfully... that is now over as well and I'm finally OFF until Monday.
As for Thursday night and Friday... to borrow from snowy.... meh.
It looks like some of the stuff we saw earl early in the season. Im thinking it's briefly light rain showers Thursday night... changing to sleet and freezing drizzle.. then very light snow and flurries... for the vast moajority of the area.
I don't see much accumulation at this stage of the game. Ground temps will be warmer after the next couple of days and the sun angle is getting up there which will help warm the pavement quite a bit Thursday.
Precip intensity does not look impressive at all around here. The forecast profiles are questionable for snow honestly for the entire event in our viewing area.
I'm going with the idea of light rain developing Thursday late evening... chaning to light freezing rain (mainly elevated surfaces) and then sleet with some light snow. Less than 1" accumulation and probably no more than a light coating/dusting. Of course, it will be heading into the Friday morning drive so people will forget how to drive and the rush will become an issue.
In otherwords... meah.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Mar 8, 2022 15:00:19 GMT -6
You rang?
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Post by Chris Higgins on Mar 1, 2022 22:26:29 GMT -6
Going with 79. Lets see how it goes.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Mar 1, 2022 19:22:01 GMT -6
I think we have snow in the region by the end of next week. The N stream looks like it wants to play ball later next week for sure. Might get interesting. Sorry... I'm off next week. I do not need any interruptions!
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Post by Chris Higgins on Mar 1, 2022 19:21:24 GMT -6
Did anyone hear the sirens go off today? Not in Missouri. The Missouri Drill is next week.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Mar 1, 2022 10:57:00 GMT -6
Looks like we have our first shot of 80s this year tomorrow, and it could get very close today. Thinking 78 today and 81-83*F tomorrow at Lambert Airport with mainly mid to upper 70s for the metro east and much of the St. Louis Suburbs away from downtown. Gonna feel like mid-late May out there. Not long till we see 90s again woot! (spoiler, it won't happen this month, but could see it in April) I was wondering why the forecasts as recently as yesterday morning we're so low for today and tomorrow. Probably because models were still stuck on there being snow cover and they also probably have to low soil temps because of that. Unfortunately the models are now coming in stronger with the cold front in two days. I hope they are wrong and it sits North enough to keep South of 64 on the edge of the warm air mass. The nam is showing mid to upper 40s on Friday for the NE 2/3rds of the metro. Screw that The proximity and timing of the backdoor cold front is/was the concern. Those things have scuttled many warm spring days in the past. I nudged my numbers into the low 70s today and mid 70s yesterday in favor of more warmth... but I wanted to leave some wiggle room if needed.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 28, 2022 12:43:42 GMT -6
I do what I can to privately handle issues with private messages. Sometimes, some public scrutiny is also required. That is the nature of self-policing online... much like what you are doing now...helping police what should be polite discourse. Yes, there are some comments made in here that go over the top...maybe even some by me. But nobody is required to be here... which means members chose to be here... some only to read...and some to post. There is an expectation that if they do wish to contribute that they provide accurate, relavant, timely information. I have stated many times that I will not tolerate exaggeration, fabrication, plagiarism etc. If members don't follow those rules, they should expect scrutiny. If they are continuously pushing the envelope, they should expect even more scutiny. When it happens a lot, people will stop believing or carring what is said. Much of what happens is a nautural form of self-policing. Can it be done more gracefully? I am sure it can... and I hope everyone keeps that in mind. But chronic offending makes one an easy target...and I'm not speaking to any single individual. I have done my best to regulate while not banning so as to maintain everyone's access to the greatest extent possible. But this is a place for grown-ups and EVERYONE should act like it and accept that. Time to move on...
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Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 28, 2022 12:13:01 GMT -6
Thoughts on severe weather Sunday night? Not on Monday. Ask me Thursday or Friday. Until then it's not really on my radar.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 28, 2022 9:27:00 GMT -6
As a region, this has been a lackluster winter. Not the worst ever and far from the best.
I look at it based on the amount of brain power used to forecast vs the final payoff. The ratio is not good. A lot of stress Nd brain drain went into forecasting a bunch of low impact/no impact events...and walking back nutcase fantasy forecasts than went into forecasting solid winter storms.
For the southerners... this has been a horrible snow season... again. For folks north of the Cuivre River, it's been solid... with multiple multi-inch snow events. For everything in between... a very marginal winter that was basically all squeezed into the last four weeks.
What has been good this snow season has been the forecasting. In fact, I believe this has arguably been the best winter of forecasts in memory. Meaning, the forecasts have closely matched the outcome with pretty much every storm. I am proud of the efforts we made... even if the volume of snow was less than many on here would like to see.
I'd be happy to give a go at one big wound up March bowling ball snow event... and then move on to Spring.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 28, 2022 9:18:45 GMT -6
Just broke my ankle this morning. Getting ready to sell the house and slipped going down the stairs. Landed on my right foot. I do not need any winter precip. Is there anything coming? Omaha area. Thanks in advance. Noooooooo. But, many docs will tell you that a broken ankle is better than a sprain. Hope that helps lol. Get well soon Lab and pass along my hello to your hubby!
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Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 25, 2022 16:24:20 GMT -6
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Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 25, 2022 11:42:15 GMT -6
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Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 25, 2022 0:01:34 GMT -6
No you tell me that over pass at k and 364 does not need help. Its got more white on it then when I drove over it an hour ago. Just saying. Also I see 70 is closed at the blanchatt in st.charles That's what is left of the sleep and snow from earlier today. No doubt some of the bridges and overpasses are still in rough shape…. but the main road surface road surface as improved all evening long.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 24, 2022 19:31:20 GMT -6
Be careful 364 is almost impassable in spots. Too me an hour to go from k to kisker We were just out there not too long ago and it wasn't all that bad where we were. But those ramps were still pretty rough.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 24, 2022 18:56:19 GMT -6
I am officially out of gas lol.
Too bad I have 6 more hits to go!
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Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 24, 2022 18:11:08 GMT -6
It's not as bad as last night. Need less liquid and more tiny snow flakes... which may come later. That dry tiny flake stuff can turn slightly slimy to icy in a few minutes.
Spring can spring anytime....
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Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 24, 2022 16:53:38 GMT -6
I’d say we are right around 3/4 of an inch of sleet and mush …. Probably going to get pretty slick when the temps go down a few degrees Agreed and once the sunsets with this freezing drizzle hanging around Especially if we get any of that super fine snow/snow grains type stuff.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 24, 2022 10:01:21 GMT -6
Glad I had thunderstorms in the forecast!
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Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 24, 2022 0:43:21 GMT -6
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Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 23, 2022 21:56:54 GMT -6
Now that we are between waves... looks like adjustments are going to be needed to the rest of the event. Wave 2 looks fast and snowfall totals north of 70 will be luck to reach 1" much less 2-4. So that will need to be adjusted downwards. Otherwise... I think I can ride with the rest. Total accumulations near STL will be less than 2 inches... and may struggle to reach 1 inch. as a total.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 23, 2022 18:49:02 GMT -6
I think QPF wise, wave 1 has probably produced about what was expected... just a few miles more to the south that was hinted at yesterday and certainly this morning. But it was always going to be a fast blast. It arrived on time and the most impactful precip is departing on time... and the roads are a mess. They will improve overnight with the lack of significant additional overnight snow/sleet/zr. The side roads, parking lots, etc... untreated surfaces... that will be a different story. Tomorrow looks like an equally quick hit of intense precip... but maybe with a little more staying power into the later part of the afternoon. The 1-2 storm total will work...although it seems more likely we will be close to 1 and not 2 because I just don't see much snow tomorrow...especially south of I-64. Northern metro may have some fun. The other unknown is the impact of the instability... how does that translate to localized, short term intense accumulations? I'm not sure... but it will be fun to watch
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Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 23, 2022 17:43:01 GMT -6
And there goes wave #1. Short but intense while it lasted.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 23, 2022 16:48:33 GMT -6
Was briefly mostly snow in Pacific... but now it's freezing rain and sleet again. I-44 is ugly... so are all side roads. Driveable... but only with extreme caution.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 23, 2022 13:43:10 GMT -6
Looking like north of St Charles may get left out of round 1
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Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 23, 2022 12:09:47 GMT -6
Steady as she goes. Beware of major course corrections this close to event. No need to rock the boat.. all is right on target...or close enough. I just like saying that
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Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 23, 2022 12:07:56 GMT -6
Steady as she goes. Beware of major course corrections this close to event. No need to rock the boat.. all is right on target...or close enough.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 23, 2022 0:41:45 GMT -6
Is catching some flurries On my drive home
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