|
Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 23, 2022 0:01:17 GMT -6
|
|
|
Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 22, 2022 23:39:53 GMT -6
For clarification... the Euro is the last run... not the 00z update which has not arrived yet.
|
|
|
Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 22, 2022 23:12:29 GMT -6
I'm not seeing much reason to make any changes at this point. It's a sloppy messy system.
One thing that may help the situation on many larger roads will be the break between waves.. and the fact that we are not frigid.
On the other hand... I do expect persistent freezing drizzle... and maybe very very fine sleet to continue overnight tomorrow night and that will be keep side roads, driveways, parking lots and sidewalks in rough shape.
|
|
|
Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 22, 2022 17:56:37 GMT -6
I really don't see any reason to change anything. Going 2-4 north of I-70 and 1-2 in the metro...with up to 1/4 inch of freezing rain. What’s the timing look like for tomorrow? Coming from the South, are we looking at start times in far southern counties around noon or 1? Metro around 2-3? I'd say no later than 3pm.
|
|
|
Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 22, 2022 17:53:56 GMT -6
Really need to get my sis to an outpatient surgery in fairview hts at 8 a.m. Thursday. Snow or a window of opportunity. Might have a short window getting there... but probably still some freezing drizzle before wave 2 ramps up.
|
|
|
Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 22, 2022 15:42:54 GMT -6
I really don't see any reason to change anything. Going 2-4 north of I-70 and 1-2 in the metro...with up to 1/4 inch of freezing rain.
|
|
|
Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 22, 2022 1:19:04 GMT -6
It is a messy setup... and 00z data hasnt helped. The going forecast looks ok for now... so steady as she goes.
|
|
|
Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 21, 2022 20:38:48 GMT -6
Yes , I think the first wave in the immediate metro and points north/west will be mostly snow. The sleet mixing in will likely occur Thursday morning as the second wave pushes up from the south west That seems to be the most plausable.
|
|
|
Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 21, 2022 19:18:48 GMT -6
Digging a bit more into point soundings for the Wed night/Thu events and man those soundings are messy. 1) Unstable aloft with CAPE and thunderstorms possible 2) Nearly all the lift is well below the DGZ 3) Very dry air above the mid-level inversion 4) Some definite signs for CSI
This could be a real sleet fest... with thunder/lightning etc. Then... between waves #1 and #2... I don't see a complete end to the precip... but a continuation over either very fine sleet... and/or freezing drizzle. Unless the convection can completely eat-up the warm layer... which on the warm NAM is deep and up to 2c... it may be tough to get much... if any snow south of I-70 except for maybe a short hit at the onset.
Just a really ugly mess of icy weather.
|
|
|
Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 21, 2022 13:50:22 GMT -6
|
|
|
Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 21, 2022 12:26:19 GMT -6
There is no way anyone in metro STL is all snow. Im not sure I can guarantee all snow anywhere in this setup.
It will be a mess mix of sleet... with some snow on the north end..and freezing rain on the south end... but the main band of highest precip rates sure looks sleety to me.
|
|
|
Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 20, 2022 22:20:11 GMT -6
Although I do expect there to be a fair amount of sleet in the thu system... it is a fair assumption that the NAM may be too amped on the LLJ... which is common.
|
|
|
Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 20, 2022 16:49:47 GMT -6
|
|
|
Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 20, 2022 10:59:30 GMT -6
NAM and 3km NAM showing a supportive severe environment along the front Tuesday afternoon for the south half of the area. I was just going to point that out.
|
|
|
Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 19, 2022 19:05:40 GMT -6
Ive had two glasses of wine... so forgive me... but I thought I would drop in.
First... I can think of a few situations where the vort and 850 passed to our north... they were all tied to an arctic airmass and resulted in all frozen. Mainly sleet and snow... and averaged 2-5 inches... solid advisory events that ended with frz drizzle. Definitely not "classics" but they do happen. In each case, the sfc low was waaaaay south and the events were largley WAA ahead of inverted trough.
Second thing.... there will NOT be a new thread for next week.
Back to my weekend!
|
|
|
Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 17, 2022 20:06:00 GMT -6
DaveStLou... this website is pretty darn cool! oakvillewx.com/What software are you using for the display?
|
|
|
Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 17, 2022 19:32:34 GMT -6
Interesting storm…snowed buckets for about 45 minutes up here with a few hours of moderate snow surrounding it. Winds have been brutal since yesterday making measuring impossible. I would say 3-4 inches for me. Its nice not to get shutout, but this is the second time missing the double digit band by just a hair. Models handled my area extremely poorly basically showing no snow on a lot of runs within 6-18 hours of the event. Not sure what to make of next week, but I think it’ll trend colder. Energy might jump north though with the 1st wave and the 2nd wave might get suppressed. I'm not even thinking of what to think about next week's event(s). My brain is tired.
|
|
|
Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 17, 2022 18:56:30 GMT -6
|
|
|
Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 17, 2022 18:37:50 GMT -6
Hey Brtn... check your private messages.
|
|
|
Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 17, 2022 17:51:24 GMT -6
Hwy 61 between Bowling Green and Hannibal is about as icy as it gets and still able to drive on it.
|
|
|
Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 17, 2022 17:42:22 GMT -6
In less than 5 miles... going north on 61 toward Hannibal... 3 semis off the road... impossible to see the edge of the road.
|
|
|
Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 17, 2022 17:40:58 GMT -6
Measured in 100 places (exaggerating) and had anything from 4 to 8 inches... averaging it and calling it 6 in Bowling Green.
|
|
|
Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 17, 2022 12:52:02 GMT -6
The region will get swiped by the wraparound late this afternoon. with up to 1 inch from that in the metro..a little more to the northwest.
|
|
|
Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 17, 2022 12:39:36 GMT -6
Just waking up looking at radar and wondering why the back edge is already here!?!? Didnt think it was suppose to be over until later... And I'm not seeing no minimum of 3 inches. I'm reading dry slot on some posts. So guess I ended under that. Wth! That's why my forecast for Lincoln County...Troy area...is/was 1-4 inches.
|
|
|
Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 17, 2022 11:11:20 GMT -6
Mostly sleet in St Charles now.
|
|
|
Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 17, 2022 8:37:43 GMT -6
The fast forward motion of the WAA lift will be a big limiting factor today.
|
|
|
Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 17, 2022 8:36:52 GMT -6
Guidance keeping the southeastern half of the metro all rain until the end of the event with only a dusting to at most an inch on the backside deformation zone. Which is what the forecast said all along. So we are on track.
|
|
|
Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 17, 2022 0:46:06 GMT -6
|
|
|
Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 17, 2022 0:27:54 GMT -6
The 00z model is virtually unchanged from last night with the tracks of the 850mb and surface lows. The ensemble of those tracks continues to point to an axis of heavy snow from south of KC up into Pike County... which is in strong agreement with the EPS 18z snowfall output. Assuming the edges are too robust again...especially on the south side... there will be a quick taper off south of the Cuivre River of snow. This definitely has the look of a quick switch to mainly sleet around midday for metro STL. It's just so hard to get decent snow with an 850mb low passing between Festus and Ste Genevieve...and a surface low that tracks to near near Paducah.
|
|
|
Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 17, 2022 0:17:56 GMT -6
|
|