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Post by ajd446 on Jan 5, 2022 7:47:41 GMT -6
I like 1 to 1.5 imby to the city, more south, nothing north of the st.charles lincoln county border
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 5, 2022 7:28:01 GMT -6
Also i notoce simulated radar is a bit north of where the heavier snows are. Thats why the 70 corridor will depend so muchbon when and if it can saturate otherwise its all virga snow
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 5, 2022 7:24:21 GMT -6
Hrrr trys to get the fgen band going through the 70 corridor befor developing a bigger batch south, but it definately shows the fight of dry air. Steady as she goes for now, and we will just have to seen what actually makes it to the ground
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 5, 2022 5:48:00 GMT -6
As it stands now i will take my 1.5 in st.peters and call it a win lol
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 4, 2022 23:22:02 GMT -6
04z rap looks like its a bit further north as well. But at this point lets just let the night roll on.
Good night yall
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 4, 2022 23:20:13 GMT -6
Rap still 1 to 3 so all good
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 4, 2022 22:10:53 GMT -6
Long range rap is drier but closer the the 70 corridor seems slightly north of the 18z
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 4, 2022 21:59:00 GMT -6
Agree chris, and that meso band will likely continue to shift until it starts to actually develope
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 4, 2022 21:51:54 GMT -6
Well i guess we can always go for that record friv. I agree though makes you want to move to iowa or nebraska.
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 4, 2022 21:49:45 GMT -6
Gfs is really trying to get that fgen band going near 70 this run.
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 4, 2022 21:44:30 GMT -6
Which part is the nightmare the fact ot doesnt snow in st.louis, or the models dont know what they are doing lol
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 4, 2022 21:05:00 GMT -6
Boy KC to Paducah you would think would be perfect for metro stlouis
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 4, 2022 20:23:22 GMT -6
Thank you just wanted to make sure it wasnt me, in the end its going to go where its gonna go and we cant be mad at the weather, just trends that im making sure I have noticed with these fgen bands
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 4, 2022 20:17:00 GMT -6
I still dont yhink the system is sampled yet however. Lots of moving parts to watch it play out, however the southerners deserve it, we always get it in the i70 corridor it seems
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 4, 2022 20:15:14 GMT -6
If it misses the metro it is good for rush hour concerns at least
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 4, 2022 20:10:31 GMT -6
One thing to note however and someone please tell me if this is true, dont clippers usually end up a bit north of where they are initially forecast. I am not wishcasting just asking if while we see a southern shift now isnt that actually a good thing for this stage of the game.
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 4, 2022 19:49:21 GMT -6
Yes starting to appear you will have to go 50 miles south of the metro to get anything meaningful. I think ita almost a no go for the northern 2/3 of the area now
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 4, 2022 17:15:24 GMT -6
Never mind its 1 to 3 along and south of 70 its the colors that got me
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 4, 2022 17:14:02 GMT -6
Why does the map posted for the rap look further south than what is modeled on pivotal weather.
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 4, 2022 16:15:41 GMT -6
Rap looks great along and south of 70 with 1 to 3
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 4, 2022 16:13:40 GMT -6
I guess, i forgot bout that. Sorry
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 4, 2022 16:02:45 GMT -6
Gfs has been dry as a bone this entire storm honestly. If it pulls this off it is a big win for that model
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 4, 2022 15:28:56 GMT -6
Who knows, but chris forecast is spot on for now and just let it ride.
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 4, 2022 14:28:51 GMT -6
I will give dc one thing they have not had much snow at all in years. At least we get snow. An even the hi res nam is 1 to 2 from Metro west and south so its not a total write off for anyone just yet
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 4, 2022 14:21:44 GMT -6
It definately gets the area a nice 1 to 3 on the nam, and really starts coming togeter for se mo with the main storm.
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 4, 2022 14:18:55 GMT -6
I like the one inch Idea, and nam looks better to me
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 4, 2022 10:31:03 GMT -6
I think most expected nothing more. Wherever that tiny band ends up we will all just drive to see our snow.
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 4, 2022 9:17:24 GMT -6
we will not know whats happening until it is happening
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 4, 2022 8:43:07 GMT -6
I know its the end of the 12 z hrrr but it has a 2 plus inch snow right down 70 from the fgen band
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 4, 2022 7:30:13 GMT -6
It does show 2 to 4 area wide if you look at the kuchera ratios
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