fareastwx21
Wishcaster
Clay County, Illinois on the banks for the Little Wabash
Posts: 189
|
Post by fareastwx21 on Nov 24, 2014 21:14:32 GMT -6
The 00z NAM has shifted ever so slightly to the southwest with a focus of heaviest precip right down the Mississippi River. Mid-level lapse rates get pretty steep within the primary band...and considering the proximity of the dry slot... convective enhancement seeems to be a good bet. Time of day may once again be a limiting factor. But the 00z NAM continues to strongly support idea of snow/mixed with rain on the western fringes with some accumulations possible. Hey now.... LOL Apparently he didn't read your post in the weather section about ferguson related topics coming here.
|
|
fareastwx21
Wishcaster
Clay County, Illinois on the banks for the Little Wabash
Posts: 189
|
Post by fareastwx21 on Feb 7, 2014 13:45:46 GMT -6
Scripts' researchers released a paper in 2012 that indicated the little ice age was indeed a global event.
Sure it might not have been 1.1 degrees everywhere but there is a signal for a global event.
I understand if you want global warming to be true that is inconvient but it seems to be the case.
As to the northern hemisphere being where the 1.1 colder came from I would fully expect the northern hemisphere to be colder than the south because of the greater land area.
|
|
fareastwx21
Wishcaster
Clay County, Illinois on the banks for the Little Wabash
Posts: 189
|
Post by fareastwx21 on Feb 7, 2014 13:16:56 GMT -6
Historical records are clear arctic sea ice increased during the period of the little ice age, at least on the atlantic side.
|
|
fareastwx21
Wishcaster
Clay County, Illinois on the banks for the Little Wabash
Posts: 189
|
Post by fareastwx21 on Feb 7, 2014 9:52:31 GMT -6
DT made a very good comment about the possible effects, if the Maunder Min was responsible for global cooling, about the agriculture production of the planet and the future.
Many of us forget the underlying cause of the revolution in Eygpt began in 2008 with wheat shortages. Living in the US we don't think about food being unavailable, some people go hungry but not because there is no food.
We live in a world today that could explode into revolution if there was a multi-year crop failure across a good portion of the northern hemisphere.
While there would be a point where warming would significantly impact agriculture, but only then if it were accompanied by drought, cooler temperatures would play havoc across much of the most fertile land in the world. If you look at Canada, the US, eastern Europe and other places in the north, I believe there is little doubt cooler global temperatures could cause massive problems.
|
|
fareastwx21
Wishcaster
Clay County, Illinois on the banks for the Little Wabash
Posts: 189
|
Post by fareastwx21 on Feb 5, 2014 8:49:54 GMT -6
From my reading I thought the accepted value was colder by 1 to 1.5 degrees C. But not all of the Little Ice Age was cold, it seemed to be a period of much more turbulent swings in temperature, that was overall colder in many places such as Europe and the eastern part of North America. Regionally, perhaps. Global data does not support that kind of drop at all. It is my understanding that the new data does support that kind of drop. journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/2011JCLI4145.1With new proxy reconstruction I believe they came up with a value of close to 1.1 C drop during the "Little Ice Age" period.
|
|
fareastwx21
Wishcaster
Clay County, Illinois on the banks for the Little Wabash
Posts: 189
|
Post by fareastwx21 on Feb 3, 2014 14:04:05 GMT -6
Just out of curiosity, what temperature reconstructions do you refer to when you say "very cold" in the Little Ice Age? Most of the reconstructions I see average a 0.2 to 0.3C difference globally on either side of that period. Nothing that comes close to the 0.6C increase in the last 35 years. From my reading I thought the accepted value was colder by 1 to 1.5 degrees C. But not all of the Little Ice Age was cold, it seemed to be a period of much more turbulent swings in temperature, that was overall colder in many places such as Europe and the eastern part of North America.
|
|
fareastwx21
Wishcaster
Clay County, Illinois on the banks for the Little Wabash
Posts: 189
|
Post by fareastwx21 on Feb 3, 2014 14:00:02 GMT -6
AR1967 has continued to grow in size and complexity. NOAA has boosted the probability of X flares to 50 percent. If the spot produces an flare it would likely be earth directed in the next few days.
|
|
fareastwx21
Wishcaster
Clay County, Illinois on the banks for the Little Wabash
Posts: 189
|
Post by fareastwx21 on Feb 2, 2014 18:27:00 GMT -6
Here are the liner notes for The Long Summer, by Brian Fagan.
Humanity evolved in an Ice Age in which glaciers covered much of the world. But starting about 15,000 years ago, temperatures began to climb. Civilization and all of recorded history occurred in this warm period, the era known as the Holocene-the long summer of the human species. In The Long Summer, Brian Fagan brings us the first detailed record of climate change during these 15,000 years of warming, and shows how this climate change gave rise to civilization. A thousand-year chill led people in the Near East to take up the cultivation of plant foods; a catastrophic flood drove settlers to inhabit Europe; the drying of the Sahara forced its inhabitants to live along the banks of the Nile; and increased rainfall in East Africa provoked the bubonic plague. The Long Summer illuminates for the first time the centuries-long pattern of human adaptation to the demands and challenges of an ever-changing climate-challenges that are still with us today.
Really a very good for someone who is interested in climate and history.
Stop it. You cannot have that much variation with just solar variation. Blasphemy! I know. Climate has been static since the beginning, wait no that's not right.
|
|
fareastwx21
Wishcaster
Clay County, Illinois on the banks for the Little Wabash
Posts: 189
|
Post by fareastwx21 on Jan 31, 2014 9:55:24 GMT -6
As large sunspot AR1967 continues to rotate towards the center of the solar disc, its solar magnetic structure indicates it could produce X-Class solar flares. There was a strong M-Class flare, M-6, that was captured in a picture of a solar eclipse only visable from space. In the coming days continued activity is likely from the large sunspot. NOAA is forecasting a 60% chance of another M-Class event and 10% chance of an X-Class event.
The daily sunspot number is 112, an uptick from the previous few days, but that number should drop as two sunspot groups rotate off the eastern limb in the coming days.
|
|
fareastwx21
Wishcaster
Clay County, Illinois on the banks for the Little Wabash
Posts: 189
|
Post by fareastwx21 on Jan 30, 2014 20:17:08 GMT -6
Now to the good stuff. The possible range we know from science is -255C to about 20C perhaps for earth. The change over the last century has been 0.7C+. Let's get out the calculator. That is a whopping 0.25% increase in temperature. We humans are way too sensitive. That must be why God made the sun so consistent, but it still isn't rock solid enough to keep us all happy all of the time.
Oh crap. bad math again. OK, the lowest is -204C add that to 20c. OK that kicks the 0.7c+ to a whopping 0.31%. DONE Anyway, that is slight in my book. That's the thing I don't get. We have seen temps increase .7 degrees C in 100 years. We know there have been much larger swings in shorter periods. And we were coming out of a much cooler period. I think we are way to focused on our on ability to change climate. What should send chills down peoples spines is the prospect we don't understand the way our climate system works and that we could go the opposite direction.
|
|
fareastwx21
Wishcaster
Clay County, Illinois on the banks for the Little Wabash
Posts: 189
|
Post by fareastwx21 on Jan 29, 2014 17:26:03 GMT -6
But the sun has become less active in ways other than lumosity. I would assume that would have effects, such as cloud formation, we might not fully appreciate.
I just think we know far to little about how are climate system works to blame every thing on carbon emissions.
My caveat is we should limit those emissions, but keep an open mind as to what is happening. The climate has changed constently through history should we believe it won't continue.
|
|
fareastwx21
Wishcaster
Clay County, Illinois on the banks for the Little Wabash
Posts: 189
|
Post by fareastwx21 on Jan 29, 2014 10:27:26 GMT -6
As sunspot AR1967 rotates back to the visible disk of the sun, it appears to have lost some of its ability to produce upper end solar flares. Current magnatism would indicate M-class flares, with only a slight chance of something stronger.
While I don't want something destructive, I would like for my childern to see a auroral display, I can remember seeing them when I was young, 89 and 93, I think. Really just amazing and something you always remember.
|
|
fareastwx21
Wishcaster
Clay County, Illinois on the banks for the Little Wabash
Posts: 189
|
Post by fareastwx21 on Jan 29, 2014 10:23:04 GMT -6
Interesting, don't let the AGW folks know this. The sun is pretty much benign to them. On a more serious not I think I'm gonna find that report and peruse it. Sunspots are popular because they are easy to count and have been recorded for a long time. They can be useful as a measure of solar activity. However, it is very, very easy to draw a correlation between two variables and come up with a relationship where none actually exists. It's much harder to definitively and scientifically prove the causal link, at which time it becomes a useful, working theory. As such : onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/grl.50846/abstractI'm planning on addressing this particular issue and a myriad of other topics related to climate on this sub-forum. Instead of jumping right in with the latest research though, I'm going to "start at the beginning" with the early days of climate research, including the extremely important contributions of people like Ed Lorenz. I've approached this type of thing before, but without the background, I think it's very easy for people to get lost or assume that climate research is some esoteric topic that only started recently or is in its infancy. In fact, its roots are very old and its history colored. Don't you think it is a little bit crazy for some people to claim there is very little or no effect from the sun on climate? I don't know the answer as whether it does or not. I would make the over simplified observation that if something stops working I always check the power source first, since the sun is our power source I would think you would check it first. My whole problem with anyone who makes absolute statements, especially when it comes to something as complicated as climate, is that we don't understand the atmosphere enough to make forecasts about what it is doing. We need to invest much more money into the science, unfortunately we are in a time when science funding is being slashed by people who are to stupid to understand the importance of science.
|
|
fareastwx21
Wishcaster
Clay County, Illinois on the banks for the Little Wabash
Posts: 189
|
Post by fareastwx21 on Jan 28, 2014 12:10:08 GMT -6
Watching each cycle and trying to relate it to climate is kind of fruitless. Taking the cycles and the average of them is more worthwhile and then seeing what the trend is it is very important. Maybe, there wasn't anywhere else this fit. Individual solar cycles are hard to tie to climate not doubt, but the behavior of the current cycle and the cycle 23 are both interesting and will likely have an impact on the climate. Herschel was the first to tie sunspots to wheat charts, wheat prices go up when there are few sunspots, at least that is what he found. So if that were the case, there must be some effect more immediately on terresterial weather.
|
|
fareastwx21
Wishcaster
Clay County, Illinois on the banks for the Little Wabash
Posts: 189
|
Post by fareastwx21 on Jan 28, 2014 9:58:29 GMT -6
Here are the liner notes for The Long Summer, by Brian Fagan.
Humanity evolved in an Ice Age in which glaciers covered much of the world. But starting about 15,000 years ago, temperatures began to climb. Civilization and all of recorded history occurred in this warm period, the era known as the Holocene-the long summer of the human species. In The Long Summer, Brian Fagan brings us the first detailed record of climate change during these 15,000 years of warming, and shows how this climate change gave rise to civilization. A thousand-year chill led people in the Near East to take up the cultivation of plant foods; a catastrophic flood drove settlers to inhabit Europe; the drying of the Sahara forced its inhabitants to live along the banks of the Nile; and increased rainfall in East Africa provoked the bubonic plague. The Long Summer illuminates for the first time the centuries-long pattern of human adaptation to the demands and challenges of an ever-changing climate-challenges that are still with us today.
Really a very good for someone who is interested in climate and history. Attachment Deleted
|
|
fareastwx21
Wishcaster
Clay County, Illinois on the banks for the Little Wabash
Posts: 189
|
Post by fareastwx21 on Jan 28, 2014 9:16:18 GMT -6
Old sunspot AR1944 has just come across the western limb and has been renumbered AR1967. It is still a large sunspot that has shown activity in the last several days. NASA is forecasting a 30% chance of class-M flares and 5% of X flares in the coming days.
Other than this active region sunspot levels have fallen to 62 after several days above 100.
|
|
fareastwx21
Wishcaster
Clay County, Illinois on the banks for the Little Wabash
Posts: 189
|
Post by fareastwx21 on Jan 27, 2014 17:57:12 GMT -6
I have been watch the solar cycle for the past several years, find it very interesting, unfortunately the solarham.com site has discountinued there forums so I haven't found a good place to look since.
Currently the cycle to continuing and even as sunspot numbers are currently on the down swing, the active region that had an earth facing X flair two weeks ago is over the western limb and set to return in the coming days.
|
|
fareastwx21
Wishcaster
Clay County, Illinois on the banks for the Little Wabash
Posts: 189
|
Post by fareastwx21 on Jan 27, 2014 17:53:28 GMT -6
Another book I read a few years ago was The Winds of Change. I can't remember the author I will look it up. It was also a very good read.
I have another on the Tambora eruption that I am going to start after the Little Ice Age.
|
|
fareastwx21
Wishcaster
Clay County, Illinois on the banks for the Little Wabash
Posts: 189
|
Post by fareastwx21 on Jan 27, 2014 11:55:33 GMT -6
I have recently read The Long Summer and am in the process of reading The Little Ice Age, both by Brian Fagen. I would highly recommended both of these books for people that are interested in climate in general and its effects on civilization.
|
|