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Post by unclesam6 on Nov 16, 2020 22:26:02 GMT -6
Iota makes landfall 15 miles from where Eta did. Cat 4, 155 mph winds.
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Post by unclesam6 on Nov 16, 2020 11:34:07 GMT -6
Before 2020, only 8 storms in recorded history intensified 100mph in 36 hours.
This year alone, 4 storms have done it. Unreal. Seems like the climate folks might be on to somethin'.
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Post by unclesam6 on Nov 16, 2020 0:30:39 GMT -6
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Post by unclesam6 on Nov 16, 2020 0:27:18 GMT -6
Looks like Iota will make the run for Cat 3 or 4 tonight. 945mb to 931mb in 90 minutes holy crap. |
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Post by unclesam6 on Nov 15, 2020 23:51:55 GMT -6
Another snoozer from the 00z gfs
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Post by unclesam6 on Nov 15, 2020 21:36:26 GMT -6
Looks like Iota will make the run for Cat 3 or 4 tonight.
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Post by unclesam6 on Nov 14, 2020 17:19:36 GMT -6
that's a frickin honkin' tor watch.
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Post by unclesam6 on Nov 13, 2020 12:28:41 GMT -6
I wonder if the SPC has the slight risk too far south for tomorrow? latest hi-res guidance would suggest a pull towards I-70 at least in central mo. |
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Post by unclesam6 on Nov 12, 2020 20:53:30 GMT -6
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Post by unclesam6 on Nov 12, 2020 19:56:08 GMT -6
Here comes all the lockdowns, restrictions and closers. Second wave in progress. Missouri won't do anything. Been wide open since may or June, it won't change. Local municipalities will have to do it, which the probably will. 160k new cases today. It's going nuts. Heard about truck morgues shipping out of El Paso Tx. Next 2-3 weeks will really show "how good" we've gotten at keeping people alive with emergency covid cases. |
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Post by unclesam6 on Nov 12, 2020 17:39:43 GMT -6
This may of already been mentioned. 1999-2000 and 2004-2005 are possible analogs for this coming winter. 1999-2000's snowfall was above normal at 25.7". 2004-2005's snowfall was a little below normal at 14.8". I took the average of those two for fun and it's 20.25". Besides 2018-2019 that would be the highest snowfall for the winter season since 2013-2014 (where we had 27.2"). That was a snowy period because the year before in 2012-2013 we had a whopping 31.4"! Yea, Mother Nature threw us a bit of a bone there after having to endure the summer of 2012 aka the blast furnace from hades. I'll never forget 3 thundersnow events in 30 days back in 2013. That was a bookmark winter for me. |
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Post by unclesam6 on Nov 12, 2020 13:20:46 GMT -6
If you squint hard enough you can start to see something potentially interesting the weekend before Thanksgiving. The D10 range shows slight potential on the gem and gefs. At least some cold air has made an appearance in the models over the next couple weeks (along with some warm days). I can deal with some up and down, but straight torch would be a bummer for the entire month. EURO tipping its hand at something too. |
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Post by unclesam6 on Nov 12, 2020 13:18:03 GMT -6
Pretty incredible rain event in the Carolinas this morning. Seems like it was the perfect setup for something catastrophic.
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Post by unclesam6 on Nov 12, 2020 0:33:28 GMT -6
Another nothingburger gfs run
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Post by unclesam6 on Nov 11, 2020 11:35:58 GMT -6
pretty interesting stat here:
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Post by unclesam6 on Nov 10, 2020 17:24:42 GMT -6
sheesh, this part of the nation can't catch a break. Parts of that line looked like a miniature Aug 10 derecho as it rolled thru N central IL twitter link not working in the forum. |
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Post by unclesam6 on Nov 10, 2020 15:19:53 GMT -6
little to no signals defined wintry pattern on any of the globals... MAYBE something from the GFS after the 20th... but until then near or above average. Meh.
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Post by unclesam6 on Nov 9, 2020 20:01:41 GMT -6
anyone know what the heck is going on with this storm?
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Post by unclesam6 on Nov 9, 2020 16:20:58 GMT -6
21z RAP even more robust.
18z NAM also seeming to pick up on that pocket of increased instability near the TP
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Post by unclesam6 on Nov 9, 2020 14:59:20 GMT -6
Today's record high of 78 was set in 1975. The winter of 75/76 was a decent year... 25.3 inches. Not the monster the following years became... but a decent year. That seems reasonable to me. Chris are you showing your hand for this winter? I continue to think this winter will be solid. A very warm November so far and I think that bodes well for us. I did a story on exactly this last week. It was pretty impressive to me, digging through the data. Of our 25 warmest Novembers since 1970, whether or not COU saw above or below average snowfall for the winter was split exactly down the middle. I believe it was 13/12 for less than average snowfall. abc17news.com/weather/2020/11/05/warm-weather-in-november-does-it-mean-anything-for-the-winter-ahead/ |
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Post by unclesam6 on Nov 9, 2020 13:12:17 GMT -6
15z rap not holding back any punches near the triple point. Looks like a slight from SPC would seem wise on a line from Kirksville to Rockford.
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Post by unclesam6 on Nov 9, 2020 10:00:26 GMT -6
marginal from the SPC
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Post by unclesam6 on Nov 8, 2020 21:07:43 GMT -6
had some folks on FB messaging my weather page about a meteor
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Post by unclesam6 on Nov 7, 2020 22:55:42 GMT -6
uhhhh
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Post by unclesam6 on Nov 7, 2020 17:59:52 GMT -6
18z nam certainly supports a potential tornado threat in central and east central MO.
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Post by unclesam6 on Nov 6, 2020 23:23:32 GMT -6
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Post by unclesam6 on Nov 6, 2020 11:42:06 GMT -6
That's pretty cool...looks like it throws NA a good lobe towards the 20th. 12z GFS shows a nice little compact shortwave that gets a bit of work done around that time too. |
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Post by unclesam6 on Nov 5, 2020 20:43:26 GMT -6
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Post by unclesam6 on Nov 4, 2020 15:20:55 GMT -6
80* at Lambert.
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Post by unclesam6 on Nov 4, 2020 8:37:48 GMT -6
What a night.
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