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Post by unclesam6 on Nov 24, 2020 22:01:52 GMT -6
Looks like the GFS is about to make the big shift north.
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Post by unclesam6 on Nov 24, 2020 21:59:13 GMT -6
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Post by unclesam6 on Nov 24, 2020 20:05:47 GMT -6
It’s not so much that it’s further west- it’s more amplified... give a little more nudge and it may be enough something like this? i.imgur.com/YJySnQs.png |
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Post by unclesam6 on Nov 24, 2020 16:40:16 GMT -6
Major shift north on the 18z gfs. Just misses the region. Good run, nearly a bomb cyclone I definitely think we have a storm of interest I need 00z to come in a little closer. I'm teetering the fence about this one still. |
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Post by unclesam6 on Nov 24, 2020 14:44:44 GMT -6
FWIW... the EPS takes a New Orleans to Atlanta track of the SFC reflection... not a great look. although if you extrapolate what little upper air data is available on pivotal, it doesn't look totally hopeless. Looks to indicate a phase of the 500mb streams a bit to our south.
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Post by unclesam6 on Nov 24, 2020 12:27:28 GMT -6
Euro's close...
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Post by unclesam6 on Nov 24, 2020 11:45:33 GMT -6
Now we wait to see if the EURO wants to rock the boat  |
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Post by unclesam6 on Nov 24, 2020 11:31:12 GMT -6
Are you on Meteocentre? I'm only getting out to 72-h on their charts. It goes to 144 with the “classic” variable. Weather.us has more features and it updates around 11:05. bet. Looks like our only hope is that 500 mb low closing off over Phoenix. That seems to buy enough time for the northern stream to scoop it up over top of us. |
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Post by unclesam6 on Nov 24, 2020 11:18:50 GMT -6
12z ukmet looks solid for Sunday into Monday. Probably a touch southeast of where we need it and not as amplified, but close. We are in the game still. Are you on Meteocentre? I'm only getting out to 72-h on their charts. |
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Post by unclesam6 on Nov 24, 2020 10:09:35 GMT -6
wx weenies on AmericanWx bickering back and forth on whether or not they have a big storm on the way...
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Post by unclesam6 on Nov 24, 2020 0:45:28 GMT -6
And an okay track of the low from the euro... just not as amplified
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Post by unclesam6 on Nov 23, 2020 23:28:00 GMT -6
buuuut she's south... leaves one hell of a phase over the interior NE tho.
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Post by unclesam6 on Nov 23, 2020 23:12:13 GMT -6
Back to some weather within the next week... 00z ukmet has our weekend system phasing. That suggests the 00z euro will likely bring our storm back. About 20% of the 00z gfs ensemble members had more phasing, with 2 members looking quite fun for winter lovers. I believe there are more twists and turns to come with this system GEM lookin' like she wants to load'r'up again. i.imgur.com/tymPBsE.png |
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Post by unclesam6 on Nov 23, 2020 13:51:11 GMT -6
NWS just reported that they have been getting reports of rain and sleet in Central MO... WTH? Can confirm! Onset was about 10 or so minutes of partially melted sleet pellets. Not surprising considering our Td's are right around 32* Definitely some efficient evaporative cooling on the front edge of the precip. |
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Post by unclesam6 on Nov 23, 2020 13:49:58 GMT -6
GEFS members trending south with their precip field as well.
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Post by unclesam6 on Nov 23, 2020 13:45:39 GMT -6
seems like all globals want to hang on to some sort of rex blocking scenario following... whatever happens this weekend.
Euro is about as classic of a Rex Block as I've seen.
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Post by unclesam6 on Nov 23, 2020 10:57:41 GMT -6
12z gfs spits out a totally 2020 cutoff low that just sits and spins over the STL metro for days late next week. Truly bizarre honestly looks like a summer-time cutoff low when the flow is so benign that it's got no where to go. That feels weird to see in the cool season. |
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Post by unclesam6 on Nov 23, 2020 10:55:25 GMT -6
12z gfs spits out a totally 2020 cutoff low that just sits and spins over the STL metro for days late next week. Truly bizarre and the GEM holds the course. |
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Post by unclesam6 on Nov 23, 2020 10:00:50 GMT -6
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Post by unclesam6 on Nov 22, 2020 22:38:15 GMT -6
GFS has a similar scheme at H5 as the 12z GEM/Euro... However, it never really cuts off the 4 corners low... Instead, it gets stretched and sheared out by the polar jet... leaving a weak sfc wave to ripple along the gulf coast states. Looks like the GFS is hopping on the COLD train though.
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Post by unclesam6 on Nov 22, 2020 12:59:10 GMT -6
Pretty nice runs from the GEM and EURO wrt the storm next weekend. GFS still looks like... well, the GFS
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Post by unclesam6 on Nov 21, 2020 17:20:34 GMT -6
seems like the GEFS is attempting to trend towards the EURO/GEM solutions.
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Post by unclesam6 on Nov 21, 2020 11:05:16 GMT -6
12z ggem is extremely cold at the end of its run and even has an interesting storm. 12z gfs is totally different. It has a goofy cutoff to kick off December that would be a real headache to forecast. Things are at least a little more interesting to look at now. Baby steps. Also, next week looks like plenty of rain for the region if you are worried about that kind of thing. That GEM run reminds me of this storm from a couple years ago. Don't think it ever produced true blizzard conditions in our DMA tho. www.weather.gov/eax/2018ThanksgivingWeekendBlizzard2 |
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Post by unclesam6 on Nov 21, 2020 0:26:41 GMT -6
00z euro much more aggressive with the low midweek... looks to suggest a severe threat.
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Post by unclesam6 on Nov 20, 2020 12:03:47 GMT -6
If you were only guaranteed 17" this year would you rather get there by being nickle and dimed or by getting a big one-and-done style storm? Nickle and dimed by clippers... must be associated with big time cold. OR one crusher. or two medium crushers. Last year's melting snows melting in the middle of the night will haunt me forever. If you weren't under 30-35 dbz banding you were rapidly losing snowpack. It was really disappointing. |
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Post by unclesam6 on Nov 18, 2020 22:04:09 GMT -6
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Post by unclesam6 on Nov 18, 2020 14:59:48 GMT -6
Hey everyone. Love to see and read all of the banter back and forth! So, I have a quick question for anyone, please. Can I get a rough idea how much rainfall we're looking to get this weekend? I was planning on putting down my Winterizer fertilizer, but don't want it to get washed away! A quick glance/rough idea .75"-1.25" area-wide. Likely on the higher end of that if you're further south and west outside of St. Louis. Lower end if you're east of the river. and if it helps, you'll have to keep in mind this all looks to fall in a 24-36 hour period of on & off rain |
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Post by unclesam6 on Nov 18, 2020 14:57:50 GMT -6
Hey everyone. Love to see and read all of the banter back and forth! So, I have a quick question for anyone, please. Can I get a rough idea how much rainfall we're looking to get this weekend? I was planning on putting down my Winterizer fertilizer, but don't want it to get washed away! A quick glance/rough idea .75"-1.25" area-wide. Likely on the higher end of that if you're further south and west outside of St. Louis. Lower end if you're east of the river. |
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Post by unclesam6 on Nov 17, 2020 23:27:12 GMT -6
00z is... close to at least a few flakes Sunday evening.
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Post by unclesam6 on Nov 17, 2020 9:16:37 GMT -6
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