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Post by unclesam6 on Oct 23, 2020 22:02:24 GMT -6
EURO seems to be in a world of its own. Will be interesting to see if it folds 00z now that data is onshore.
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Post by unclesam6 on Oct 23, 2020 11:30:35 GMT -6
dang, that's a pretty huge shift in the GEFS SE'ward compared to 12z yesterday.
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Post by unclesam6 on Oct 22, 2020 16:41:12 GMT -6
wow... that 18z gfs is so fantastically freakin' close to a monster groundhog-day-esque event. If that polar jet just slowed down and dug JUST a bit more...
That upper level setup is something.
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Post by unclesam6 on Oct 22, 2020 9:42:57 GMT -6
wow. snow on the ground with an orange glow in the sky from wildfire smoke.
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Post by unclesam6 on Oct 21, 2020 23:11:07 GMT -6
insane.
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Post by unclesam6 on Oct 21, 2020 23:07:26 GMT -6
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Post by unclesam6 on Oct 21, 2020 22:30:58 GMT -6
30s and rain is going to be awesome.
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Post by unclesam6 on Oct 21, 2020 22:29:24 GMT -6
it's a carbon copy of when we got screwed out of any cold in early September.
Just can't lose the low like that.
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Post by unclesam6 on Oct 21, 2020 19:16:18 GMT -6
1/4 vis here in central MO
Could see the vapor ripples while running at the MU track this evening.
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Post by unclesam6 on Oct 21, 2020 17:47:34 GMT -6
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Post by unclesam6 on Oct 21, 2020 13:24:03 GMT -6
Is epsilon trying to become a black hole
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Post by unclesam6 on Oct 21, 2020 10:14:29 GMT -6
I just don't want to be stuck listening to snow falling and melting in the middle of the night like last year. It was an OK winter snowfall wise, but everything was 8:1 concrete and melted faster than it accumulated most of the time. I'll take the amount of 8:1 concrete that you had every day of the week (and twice on Sunday, for the record), compared to the cold rain/sleet/dry slot we usually get down here in BFE. I will concede that to the snowhole of Marissa, IL |
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Post by unclesam6 on Oct 20, 2020 15:07:35 GMT -6
Thundersnow being reported in MSP
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Post by unclesam6 on Oct 20, 2020 13:33:36 GMT -6
I'd take that pattern all winter long, lol. I just don't want to be stuck listening to snow falling and melting in the middle of the night like last year. It was an OK winter snowfall wise, but everything was 8:1 concrete and melted faster than it accumulated most of the time. |
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Post by unclesam6 on Oct 20, 2020 13:32:23 GMT -6
Its a fast flow, but isnt being in a rr quadrant of a jet max a precipitation inducer or am i getting mixed up? ton of moisture next week. We're just on the warm side for most of it in that scheme. |
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Post by unclesam6 on Oct 20, 2020 12:45:31 GMT -6
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Post by unclesam6 on Oct 20, 2020 12:25:42 GMT -6
pretty big differences WRT upper low strength with the EURO vs the GFS as they crash onshore the pacnw.
Euro quite a bit stronger thru hr120
and now has the look of a cutoff.
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Post by unclesam6 on Oct 20, 2020 10:35:27 GMT -6
12z gfs reminds of the stuff that came through early in September. Upper low cuts off too early and loses a deep cold connection.
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Post by unclesam6 on Oct 19, 2020 22:48:40 GMT -6
night and day difference with the GEM
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Post by unclesam6 on Oct 19, 2020 22:23:32 GMT -6
GFS is historic over central MO... plenty of time for that to absolutely not verify.
wow.
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Post by unclesam6 on Oct 19, 2020 14:59:53 GMT -6
What are the short-range CAMS? What does CAMS stand for? 99 already said what it stands for. The difference from non convective allowing models is that they solve the equations of atmospheric motion in all three dimensions whereas non-CAMs generally just solve horizontal motion and then calculate vertical motion after the fact with parameterizations. Most of the global models and some regional models with resolution above 9km (GFS,UKMET,ECMWF,GEM,NAM,RAP) are non- convective allowing. Regional and mesoscale models with resolution below 4km are often convective allowing (NAM3k, HRRR, and other WRF/ARW-based models). CAMS explicitly resolve updrafts and downdrafts and produce realistic thunderstorms whereas non-CAMs just produce precipitation blobs. CAMs are typically short range because the extra equations and resolution magnifies tiny errors more quickly whereas error doesn't grow quite as rapidly in non-CAMs so they can be extended to medium and long range with more confidence. this is the answer we needed. |
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Post by unclesam6 on Oct 19, 2020 12:29:01 GMT -6
9" report just north of downtown DSM
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Post by unclesam6 on Oct 19, 2020 11:43:54 GMT -6
Already some 6”+ reports coming out of the Des Moines area Definition of freak snowband... CAMs whiffed HARD on it. Looks like the best performers were the GFS/NAM and Rgem... not often you get to say that. |
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Post by unclesam6 on Oct 19, 2020 10:55:25 GMT -6
920 beat me to the punch but i have a pretty map  |
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Post by unclesam6 on Oct 19, 2020 10:28:03 GMT -6
meanwhile DMX is getting crushed by a rogue mesoscale snow band.
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Post by unclesam6 on Oct 18, 2020 23:08:00 GMT -6
Something looks like it wants to develop early next week... GFS more progressive, keeping a positive tilt to the upper low... but gives the best chance of flakes area wide... euro a little more amplified and the GEM is just... gnarly but welllll off to the north.
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Post by unclesam6 on Oct 18, 2020 18:59:27 GMT -6
can't help but think something like this would spell ice with a stronger cold pool to the north.
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Post by unclesam6 on Oct 18, 2020 13:14:53 GMT -6
EURO is at least encouraging for a good storm track... looking for that to be gone in the next 48 hours.
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Post by unclesam6 on Oct 16, 2020 13:32:45 GMT -6
Snowstorm920, is that Oct 25 on the cold snap? Yes. |
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Post by unclesam6 on Oct 16, 2020 13:23:42 GMT -6
Pretty good fire on the North Side of Downtown - Abandoned Building. Wind taking the smoke east. Worried about how dry it is.... |
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