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Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 22, 2022 15:42:54 GMT -6
I really don't see any reason to change anything. Going 2-4 north of I-70 and 1-2 in the metro...with up to 1/4 inch of freezing rain.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 22, 2022 1:19:04 GMT -6
It is a messy setup... and 00z data hasnt helped. The going forecast looks ok for now... so steady as she goes.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 21, 2022 20:38:48 GMT -6
Yes , I think the first wave in the immediate metro and points north/west will be mostly snow. The sleet mixing in will likely occur Thursday morning as the second wave pushes up from the south west That seems to be the most plausable.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 21, 2022 19:18:48 GMT -6
Digging a bit more into point soundings for the Wed night/Thu events and man those soundings are messy. 1) Unstable aloft with CAPE and thunderstorms possible 2) Nearly all the lift is well below the DGZ 3) Very dry air above the mid-level inversion 4) Some definite signs for CSI
This could be a real sleet fest... with thunder/lightning etc. Then... between waves #1 and #2... I don't see a complete end to the precip... but a continuation over either very fine sleet... and/or freezing drizzle. Unless the convection can completely eat-up the warm layer... which on the warm NAM is deep and up to 2c... it may be tough to get much... if any snow south of I-70 except for maybe a short hit at the onset.
Just a really ugly mess of icy weather.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 21, 2022 13:50:22 GMT -6
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Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 21, 2022 12:26:19 GMT -6
There is no way anyone in metro STL is all snow. Im not sure I can guarantee all snow anywhere in this setup.
It will be a mess mix of sleet... with some snow on the north end..and freezing rain on the south end... but the main band of highest precip rates sure looks sleety to me.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 20, 2022 22:20:11 GMT -6
Although I do expect there to be a fair amount of sleet in the thu system... it is a fair assumption that the NAM may be too amped on the LLJ... which is common.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 20, 2022 16:49:47 GMT -6
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Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 20, 2022 10:59:30 GMT -6
NAM and 3km NAM showing a supportive severe environment along the front Tuesday afternoon for the south half of the area. I was just going to point that out.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 19, 2022 19:05:40 GMT -6
Ive had two glasses of wine... so forgive me... but I thought I would drop in.
First... I can think of a few situations where the vort and 850 passed to our north... they were all tied to an arctic airmass and resulted in all frozen. Mainly sleet and snow... and averaged 2-5 inches... solid advisory events that ended with frz drizzle. Definitely not "classics" but they do happen. In each case, the sfc low was waaaaay south and the events were largley WAA ahead of inverted trough.
Second thing.... there will NOT be a new thread for next week.
Back to my weekend!
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Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 17, 2022 20:06:00 GMT -6
DaveStLou... this website is pretty darn cool! oakvillewx.com/What software are you using for the display?
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Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 17, 2022 19:32:34 GMT -6
Interesting storm…snowed buckets for about 45 minutes up here with a few hours of moderate snow surrounding it. Winds have been brutal since yesterday making measuring impossible. I would say 3-4 inches for me. Its nice not to get shutout, but this is the second time missing the double digit band by just a hair. Models handled my area extremely poorly basically showing no snow on a lot of runs within 6-18 hours of the event. Not sure what to make of next week, but I think it’ll trend colder. Energy might jump north though with the 1st wave and the 2nd wave might get suppressed. I'm not even thinking of what to think about next week's event(s). My brain is tired.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 17, 2022 18:56:30 GMT -6
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Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 17, 2022 18:37:50 GMT -6
Hey Brtn... check your private messages.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 17, 2022 17:51:24 GMT -6
Hwy 61 between Bowling Green and Hannibal is about as icy as it gets and still able to drive on it.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 17, 2022 17:42:22 GMT -6
In less than 5 miles... going north on 61 toward Hannibal... 3 semis off the road... impossible to see the edge of the road.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 17, 2022 17:40:58 GMT -6
Measured in 100 places (exaggerating) and had anything from 4 to 8 inches... averaging it and calling it 6 in Bowling Green.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 17, 2022 12:52:02 GMT -6
The region will get swiped by the wraparound late this afternoon. with up to 1 inch from that in the metro..a little more to the northwest.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 17, 2022 12:39:36 GMT -6
Just waking up looking at radar and wondering why the back edge is already here!?!? Didnt think it was suppose to be over until later... And I'm not seeing no minimum of 3 inches. I'm reading dry slot on some posts. So guess I ended under that. Wth! That's why my forecast for Lincoln County...Troy area...is/was 1-4 inches.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 17, 2022 11:11:20 GMT -6
Mostly sleet in St Charles now.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 17, 2022 8:37:43 GMT -6
The fast forward motion of the WAA lift will be a big limiting factor today.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 17, 2022 8:36:52 GMT -6
Guidance keeping the southeastern half of the metro all rain until the end of the event with only a dusting to at most an inch on the backside deformation zone. Which is what the forecast said all along. So we are on track.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 17, 2022 0:46:06 GMT -6
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Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 17, 2022 0:27:54 GMT -6
The 00z model is virtually unchanged from last night with the tracks of the 850mb and surface lows. The ensemble of those tracks continues to point to an axis of heavy snow from south of KC up into Pike County... which is in strong agreement with the EPS 18z snowfall output. Assuming the edges are too robust again...especially on the south side... there will be a quick taper off south of the Cuivre River of snow. This definitely has the look of a quick switch to mainly sleet around midday for metro STL. It's just so hard to get decent snow with an 850mb low passing between Festus and Ste Genevieve...and a surface low that tracks to near near Paducah.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 17, 2022 0:17:56 GMT -6
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Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 16, 2022 22:20:18 GMT -6
Nice 40" lollipop there on the HRRRRRRRRRRR Am I missing something?
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Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 16, 2022 15:14:34 GMT -6
Careful, technically they're not wrong.... yet. lol Was just thinking that we haven’t really had a “bust” yet this season…….. Ooooooook.. you have tempted the gods. I may just call in sick tomorrow because I'm afraid of what might happen now lol.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 16, 2022 15:06:57 GMT -6
Let’s keep bringing the low tracking down, 20-25 more miles by tomorrow morning. WelI, I guess it’s safe to say it was a model beat down by the GEM /Euro/Ukmet,/RGEM compared to what the GFS/NAM/GEFS/Icon had , yesterday at noon they all basically had zero snow or sleet in the metro with temps in the 50’s tomorrow afternoon. A 995 low crossing over us or even slightly west of us. I can’t believe how many GEFS ensembles and the op were so wrong even 48 hours out. Snow showed a couple individual ensemble charts with not one of them having any accumulation in the metro. Talk about some serious model flaws, wow ! Careful, technically they're not wrong.... yet. lol
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Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 16, 2022 13:36:21 GMT -6
The 12z Euro Ensemble (EPS) has barely wobbled from the earlier runs and is a dead match for the track of the 850 and surface lows for the axis of heaviest snow. Like I said last night, the ensemble is best used for finding the axis... but can be a little fuzzy or too robust on the edges because of the averaging. It can also downplay the narrow core of the axis for the same reason. Using my non-scientific approach to "cropping" the snow band...especially near the transition zone... the EPS strongly supports this morning's forecast update. Am I worried I chopped too much off on the southeast side of the snow band? Yes... always. But this is the one spot that we constantly over-forecast snowfall...just south of the transition zone. But truly believe the track of the key features and the speed this thing is moving will turn this more into a burst of sleet for the metro that will last for a couple of hours, topped off by a few hours of wind blown light snow and flurries. The amounts will be on the low end of the scale... but the impacts will be amplified by the time of day and falling temperatures.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 16, 2022 9:37:09 GMT -6
What will be in place of advisories. Will it be special weather statements? Nothing. The last I heard was the forecast will stand on its own.
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