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Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 2, 2022 14:16:44 GMT -6
And the number shaving begins... We knew this was coming. When was the last time we had a 6-9, 7-10, 8-12 forecast and actually got that? Seems like most of our storms are busts. My forecast stands... no adjustments to be made. I will ride it to the finish line.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 2, 2022 5:59:03 GMT -6
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Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 2, 2022 5:58:30 GMT -6
Intense snowbat Wing Haven and i.70
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Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 2, 2022 5:45:47 GMT -6
64 covered into Wing Haven... heavy snow/sleet on radar along MO River.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 2, 2022 3:52:27 GMT -6
Mostly very fine snow in Wentzville now.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 1, 2022 23:15:16 GMT -6
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Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 1, 2022 22:34:34 GMT -6
missing Fish and Twister (although iirc twister might have retired?) Not yet.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 1, 2022 21:30:32 GMT -6
I have any early call to flip into the AM show with the Storm Runner. So I'm calling it a night. What's in of the NAM and the other short range guidance indicate my going forecast is mostly on track. Not much to change. I like how everything is laid out and it's time to just let it happen.
Tomorrow morning will be fun to watch. There is the knowledge that an event like this could blow out the warm layer and generate a heck of a burst of heavy wet snow along/north of I-70 (ala the RAP and HRRR)... but I also accept the most likely solution which is that it turns out to be more sleet and freezing rain. Either way, the AM rush will be nasty.
Wave 2 has been rock solid in location with very little fluctuations in its position. The timing of how long it lasts has been in flux and so far continues this evening with the once sluggish NAM again speeding up the train. I would consider anything that falls after about 10AM Thursday to be bonus...but what falls Wednesday night into Thursday morning should be impressive!
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Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 1, 2022 20:03:33 GMT -6
NAM says... wagons north for wave 1.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 1, 2022 19:33:28 GMT -6
Do the forecasters total the snow numbers in the different areas to get a total of say 12in or 15in for the region. No... that is the range of numbers in that region. The total accumulation is how much any one spot should be able to measure when you stick a ruler in it. So saying 7-10 means there will be a range of reports between 7 and 10 in that region.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 1, 2022 19:24:01 GMT -6
Everybody just needs to relax. It's going to snow more in most spots than we've seen in a fairly long time. This system isn't going to just go "poof"
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Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 1, 2022 11:36:47 GMT -6
One thought that crosses my mind with storms like these is the amount of little kids turned weather weenies that will be born this week Hmmmmmmmm.... like in 2006?
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Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 1, 2022 10:36:39 GMT -6
Ok... this may be the last of my true updates before the storm since I have to get my self gathered for several long days. I have made my first adjustments to the forecast totals... only slightly increasing totals.... 1 inch across the board. 10-15 north.... 7 to 10 for metro (this includes sleet) and 3 to 6 down south. Sleet is a big factor for me. I've watched far too many times as forecasts have adjusted rapidly to big big #s only to see something more realistic take place. The wildcard will be tomorrow AM for the metro. We change to all snow... then my storm totals will need an update. We stay mostly sleet... Im sitting pretty good.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 1, 2022 10:26:30 GMT -6
Ok... this may be the last of my true updates before the storm since I have to get my self gathered for several long days. I have made my first adjustments to the forecast totals... only slightly increasing totals.... 1 inch across the board. 10-15 north.... 7 to 10 for metro (this includes sleet) and 3 to 6 down south.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 1, 2022 8:31:58 GMT -6
The NAM has slowed the end time down a few hours.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 1, 2022 0:11:14 GMT -6
So what would someone have to do to curse this? Ask that question.... lol.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 1, 2022 0:10:23 GMT -6
How could anyone forget that lol. I had to take a train back from Chicago to get back in town before it started because all the flights were cancelled. Really wish I just wouldve stayed to experience a real snowstorm. Also really hope this storm isnt similar in precip type. What I was really trying to say was. Does anyone remember what the models were saying leading up to the storm. I think I remember us all waiting for the sleet to change over(never did) Trowel to move through and never did. That was forecast to be a sleetmagedon for days for most of metro STL up until one last NAM run made a sudden jog east dramatically upping the ante in the STL metro. A Blizzard Warning was issued that morning and it immediately crashed and burned. The original forecast would have been perfect. It is one reason I so strongly resist the temptation to make huge swings at the last minute. Especially right along the transition zone. I've always said... better to be wrong 1x than 4,5,6 times. Every effort should be made to stay as close to an original forecast as possible. That was a tough storm.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 1, 2022 0:07:01 GMT -6
I am working under the assumption that the models are a little too generous with snow potential Wednesday morning and I still favor historical precedent which is for a lot sleet and some snow at the head of the storm. I especially think the latest NAM... while a thing of beauty... may be a few inches too robust. That shaves some off the totals. For now... I'm holding steady with a grand total of 6-9 (with 1-2 of that being sleet). I absolutely agree more is possible. But this being a two part storm... the road crews may have a chance to do some catch up after a big hit Wednesday morning even if it does develop. So... for now... I'm holding steady...with one exception... I bumped the mostly snow zone up for 9-12 to 9-14. There's just no getting around the big potential where the precip remains mostly snow. Caveat... keep the forecast numbers the same and focus more on impact of ice/snow/sleet, power outages and blizzard like conditions late Wednesday night and Thursday. Chris I have a doctors appointment Friday afternoon a check up after recovering from Covid. Could the roads be in decent shape by Friday afternoon if the Snow ends by Thursday afternoon? That's a question for MoDot... it will all depend on how they handle the roads.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 31, 2022 23:06:45 GMT -6
I am working under the assumption that the models are a little too generous with snow potential Wednesday morning and I still favor historical precedent which is for a lot sleet and some snow at the head of the storm. I especially think the latest NAM... while a thing of beauty... may be a few inches too robust. That shaves some off the totals.
For now... I'm holding steady with a grand total of 6-9 (with 1-2 of that being sleet). I absolutely agree more is possible. But this being a two part storm... the road crews may have a chance to do some catch up after a big hit Wednesday morning even if it does develop.
So... for now... I'm holding steady...with one exception... I bumped the mostly snow zone up for 9-12 to 9-14. There's just no getting around the big potential where the precip remains mostly snow.
Caveat... keep the forecast numbers the same and focus more on impact of ice/snow/sleet, power outages and blizzard like conditions late Wednesday night and Thursday.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 31, 2022 21:48:06 GMT -6
Question: Does Fox2 no longer give their own extrapolated forecast accumulation numbers in lieu of showing model output? It seems like I’ve only seen model output the last few years, not forecasted totals. Am I wrong here? I give mine all the time. I do sometime sprinkle in model output to help explain... but usually my snowfall graphics are my forecast... not that of a model.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 31, 2022 20:41:09 GMT -6
It has lost the upper system for Friday it appears.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 31, 2022 20:39:45 GMT -6
Well.. that is something... The NAM is flat amazing.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 31, 2022 20:22:21 GMT -6
GHD 1.0 my forecast was 3 to 11 across the metro. Low end in metro east... high end metro west. It's hard to capture the range when it is so big across a small area. Great explanation. I just though it made more sense to stick with the impact meter to emphasize the severity of the storm but that is why you all get paid the big bucks This forecast for the metro doesn't seem to be that tight at the moment... thanks in part to phase 2 that should get MOST (but not all) plenty of snow to be happy with.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 31, 2022 20:21:08 GMT -6
The 00z NAM is ever so slightly colder at 15z Wednesday and shows an incredible burst of heavy sleet and snow right over the metro between 6am and 10am. A deep, iothermal layer hugging the freeze line with a surface temp in the mid 20s... that will be brutally heavy snow... as evidence by the quick 2-4 inches it prints out over metro STL. If that happens... wow...
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 31, 2022 19:45:13 GMT -6
Wow, seeing the national weather service’s “zone of uncertainty” will raise some eyebrows. They have snow range from 4-11”. I hope that doesn’t get some people a bit reluctant to take the storm seriously. Never seen a range like that so close to the event. GHD 1.0 my forecast was 3 to 11 across the metro. Low end in metro east... high end metro west. It's hard to capture the range when it is so big across a small area.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 31, 2022 19:05:40 GMT -6
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 31, 2022 19:04:19 GMT -6
I hear the Dome is open
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 31, 2022 16:10:19 GMT -6
MODOT is really going to be challenged given this starts as rain - They will not be able to pre-treat and will already be behind once the ice / snow hits Treating will be a waste of time. The best they can hope to do is plow once it starts to come down. The treating may help get the sleet up when it's over... but I expect this stuff to turn into concrete on the roads for a couple of days.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 31, 2022 16:09:12 GMT -6
From the 12z EPS... minimum is 4"... there are a couple of 5 and 6's... but everything else is way up there. From the 12 GES... minimum is 5"...there are a few 5 and 6s... but a TON of monsters in there.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 31, 2022 15:34:10 GMT -6
Going off the NAM... there are some pretty ugly lapse rates Wednesday morning int the 500-600 layer.... from 6.3 to 8.1c That's where the CAPE is noted...so there is a good chance at thunderstorms feeding into the thermal boundary and convectively enhanced precip.
Those lapse rates drop lower in the atmosphere during afternoon and range from 6.2 to 8.6c.
Thursday's lapse rates are not impressive. Nor is the CAPE. Thursday looks to be a lot of large scale UVM associated with the right entrance region.
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