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Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 16, 2022 9:19:10 GMT -6
Thats another questions Chris. Isnt it in the realm we get 1/2 inch of sleet and that is warning criteria for sleet which makes me curious that the watch was not brought into the metro for impacts. Or at least to the 70 corridor. I thank you for all your input. And I think your inpact map is perfect. Has to be more than "within the relm" There has to be at least a 50% chance of warning criteria being met. Even with sleet that is questionable. This has the look of a warning for Pike Co... and a strong advisory down to I-70. Which... by the way... will be a thing of the past in the not too distant future. Winter advisories are likely going away in the next couple of years.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 16, 2022 9:04:32 GMT -6
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Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 16, 2022 9:04:09 GMT -6
I concur with the school issue on Thursday. I think districts will have a difficult time grappling with the “what if” scenarios. Calling off school in the morning with rain falling may look stupid if it doesn’t ice up later. But if they send the kids, and the storm does materialize then you’ve got a dicey situation. And Lindbergh has used 3 of their 4(?) snow days already. Sounds like the perfect day to go virtual!
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Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 16, 2022 9:03:40 GMT -6
I am not as worried about the ground temps as I am about tree accretion and powerlines if we get enough ice. But as we know sleet can be a game changer. Im leaving this one too Chris because he knows best, but the trends and differences are huge 12 hours before the storm Heavier rain does not build up on trees or powerlines as quickly... because a good portion of it rolls off before it can freeze. I see a faster transition to sleet that would cut into this either way.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 16, 2022 6:33:29 GMT -6
That looks about one tier of counties too far north with core axis... to me... based on 850 track and sfc low.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 16, 2022 2:01:36 GMT -6
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Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 16, 2022 1:53:57 GMT -6
Spent the better part of the last hour plotting surface low and 850 low tracks (for as long as one is identifiable) and there is strong agreement on an 850mb low track from near Joplin...up to around Salem, MO.... up to near the Jefferson/Ste. Genevieve County line... then across the river on the north side of the Kaskaskia River over to about Salem, IL. Further south, there is strong agreeement in the surface low track from northwest Arkansas up around Cape Girardeau over to just north of Evansville, IN. This paints an axis for the heaviest snow from near Butler Missouri... up to Columbia and continuing to about Bowling Green then across the river to near Peoria IL. Going up to 300mb, there is agreement with the coupling jet structure for a couple of hours roughly near/north of I-70 across northern Missouri. This forcing looks to be the strongest Thursday morning and then colapses rapidly Thursday afternoon into Thursday evening. The European ensemble mean snowfall is in excellent agreement with the 850/sfc features. The axis is dead on with what you would expect from the 850mb and surface low track. Ensembles are an excellent tool for identifying the axis of heaviest snow... but they almost always over-estimate the width of the significant snow band as a result of averaging. This should be a pretty narrow band of heavier snow...running roughly one to two counties either side of the axis with an extremely sharp cut-off north and south of the axis. I've developed a bit of an adhoc way of fine tuning the edges that has worked with some success. I generally lop off everthing outside the snowfall contour that matches half the value of max snowfall band. In this case...using a conservative 8 inches as the max value... I'll go to the 4" contour and lop off almost everything lighter than that. The rest becomes massaging the gradient near the 4" mark. That probably doesn't make much sense when you read it... but it makes perfect sense in my mind If the 12z data follows up with what we've seen at 00z... I think I'll need to bump up the totals a bit northwest of of the Cuivre River...but then I think I'm still in great shape south of there. But I want to see another round of data before I make any more adjustments. I would expect the Winter Storm Watch to be expanded south by a row of counties... or a warning to be issued. Either way... I think Pike County gets into the Winter Storm Watch/Warning...with an advisory all the way down to the Meramec River before all is said and done.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 15, 2022 23:23:00 GMT -6
I think temps falling well into the 20s during the event should be noted. Yeah... only doing one show per day limits my opportunities. I wanted to feel more comfortable with the idea that it was actually still going to be precipitating as temps crashed. The 00z data is helping with that. I expect a much bigger focus on the Thursday evening rush tomorrow.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 15, 2022 23:06:50 GMT -6
I have to say... my going forecast looks to be in really good shape right now. A couple of minor... mostly cosmetic changes to the forecast... but nothing major. I'm triming up the range over our far northern counties... 3 to 5 inches. This results in a slight broadening of the next forecast tier to the south... with 1 to 3 inches. Otherwise...not much change....
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Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 15, 2022 22:52:55 GMT -6
And... to add intrigue... the Canadian is actually further north tonight. And the UK seems to have deleted northern Illinois from the storm almost entirely.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 15, 2022 19:43:05 GMT -6
I did not mean to be harsh Chris, just meant this storm with models is a crapshoot. Really makes your job difficult. But I like your map and honestly hope it verifies that way without suprises, but its hard to not notice the trends at times but it could all be noise. It's all good. I just don't need to give ammunition to the folks who love nothing more than to make fun of meteorologists.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 15, 2022 18:46:10 GMT -6
It would be something if we get 2 to 4 inches of winter stuff in the metro with these trends, or even more comical if the model Chris alluded too is actually correct for this one storm lol Nothing commical about it at all if you are the one working your butt off the acurately forecast this stuff.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 15, 2022 18:44:31 GMT -6
Chris, After that teaser, Can I 'assume' you did not give much weight to the IBM model? You are correct. Same model was in the 19 inch camp with last storm and has not done well this winter.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 15, 2022 17:21:50 GMT -6
This is my latest map with my thoughts on this storm...
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Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 15, 2022 17:15:11 GMT -6
Our in house IBM model... which I will NOT show a picture of...has the cold air arriving early and dumps 4-6 of snow over much of metro STL. It has been less than accurate and tends to be too aggressive with cold.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 14, 2022 12:56:34 GMT -6
Here are some points I'm considering with my forecast for the next system. This looks like a minor to moderate impact event in our area... and moderate to maybe major impact over northern Missouri... but it's borderline. The 300mb jet structure argues for a somewhat further north placement closer to the GFS... but maybe not as far north. The EURO (the southern range of the models) has a surface low that supports a position further north... closer to a southern adjusted GFS The GFS has consistently been too amplified with open waves ejecting from the southwest this season. But once it has locked in... it has done very well. The NAM is not to be trusted with the low level cold air so I'm generally tossing its solution until it proves itself. It has been terrible with low level cold air on multiple occasstions this season. The UK has also been trending northwest with the key features. The ensemble means have been pretty consistently pinpointing a Sedalia to Quincy to Kankakee line as the center for the max snow. But the edges are likely too broad because of the averaging. Using all of this... and the other standard forecast methods... I've come up with what you see below... A week with two seasons! We start with the feel of spring... a little today and a lot tomorrow! But then the battle of seasons unfolds Wednesday into Thursday. This will start with rain and thunderstorms across the entire area late Wednesday into Wednesday night. Some of the rain will be heavy at times. Then, as the storm passes through... cold air will be pulled in from the north changing the rain to a winter mix and eventually snow. As indicated by the map, there is a good chance much of the region will see at least a little winter precipitation. However, the location of the most impactful winter precipitation is still somewhat uncertain... as it usually is this far in advance. That being said, current indications are the greatest impact from winter weather will be just northwest of metro STL... lining up from central into northeastern Missouri (lookout Pike County!) We'll have more specirfics for you coming up later today and tonight. My current thoughts... The greatest potential for a moderate snowfall will be over our far northwest counties (grey shaded region)... this looks like 2+ inches will be possible of sleet and snow...so Pike County is in the cross hairs again! A sharp transition zone from several inches of snow... to almost no snow is likely on the southern side of this storm. It is likely what I have drawn is too broad... but I need to leave a little wiggle room with the storm still 3 days out. In the Blue Zone... which includes the northwest half of metro STL... is where rain and thunderstorms are likely...with some heavy rain possible. This will eventually change to freezing rain and sleet before ending as a period of snow. There is some potential for light accumulations of ice and snow in the Blue Zone... but it is highly uncertain at this time. The Pink Zone.... which includes the southeast half of metro STL... is where most of the precipitation will fall as rain...some of it heavy...along with some thunderstorms. During the day Thursday, the cold air looks to change this rain briefly to an icy mix and then snow or flurries. Accumulations will be hard to come by in this zone...but it's not impossible so I need to watch and better refine the detail here. The Green Zone... this is basically a rain event in these areas...some of it in the form of thunderstorms with heavy rain. There may be a brief window Thursday afternoon for a quick mix... but it does not appear the kind of thing that would cause any impacts.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 13, 2022 14:55:31 GMT -6
EPS favors a KC to Chi corridor for max snowfall. This actually matches the GEFS snowfall charts very well and lends at least some confidence to the idea of the most impactful snow running in a band from about Sedalia, MO... through about Quincy... up to around Kankakee. Still no need to dig too deep into the weeds on this... as the basic set-up is one of rain...some thunder on the front half to 2/3rds of the system...transition through a winter mix and ending as a burst of wet snow. As it stands right now... the chances of any impactful winter weather south/southeast of the STL metro looks pretty small at the moment. Iffy for the metro...and a good chance north of I-70 in Missouri. Once again... Pike County, MO and the Bowling Green area are in the line of fire. Perhaps some of our snow-lovers need to locate to Pike County
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Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 11, 2022 19:48:18 GMT -6
So do the radiosondes get returned? And if they do, what happens to the ones that fly out over the ocean? In practice, very few get returned because most are never found. The ones in the ocean float to the bottom of the sea where they are used as ornaments at the Krusty Krab for Squidward and Sponge Bob
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Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 11, 2022 19:26:46 GMT -6
So... I don't have much to add at this point to next week except that this may have a similar look to GHD2.0 but does appear to be lacking a bit in the cold air department. I'm approaching my build up to this as more of a wet weather system with the chance for a "cleansing rain" that will help wash the salt and remnants of the last storm away. That being said... there could be a March-like element to the tail end of this system with a transition to wet snow as cold air finally arrives. But lots of time to go before we even begin to look at details. So... I plucked this link off a facebook page this evening... and holy cow! It may be the coolest webpage I've seen in a long time. Live soundings and balloon tracking anyone? tracker.sondehub.org/?fbclid=IwAR37Y8Geo_VnMA5e6QCWS6C2QETcIeKYY83-G-1Ui9caVdJ1pLGKoTzBnPE#!mt=Mapnik&mz=5&qm=3h&mc=40.11169,-90.26367&f=20049881
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Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 11, 2022 19:23:05 GMT -6
Time to close this thread out.... I have a cool new link to share to start the next one
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Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 8, 2022 1:07:20 GMT -6
We will make a legit run at 60 Tuesday afternoon.
End of next week into next weekend look very wet and stormy. I cant rule out severe weather, nor can I rule out backend snow with possible setup for secondary development.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 6, 2022 20:20:06 GMT -6
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Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 6, 2022 16:02:13 GMT -6
The thaw-freeze cycle of the next few days... and the presence of a dense layer or sleet below...and widespread nature of the snow shield may make this slower to melt than you might normally think. With this storm pretty much behind us and a new week think it's time for a fresh thread? This will do just fine until I have time to spare. Catching up on a week's worth of work, bills and family time now.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 6, 2022 13:51:50 GMT -6
The thaw-freeze cycle of the next few days... and the presence of a dense layer or sleet below...and widespread nature of the snow shield may make this slower to melt than you might normally think.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 4, 2022 19:51:43 GMT -6
I wrapped up with 7.5 here.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 3, 2022 13:39:32 GMT -6
Because they are chickens Spit my beer out through my nose lol
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Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 3, 2022 12:51:16 GMT -6
The heaviest snow is winding down... but light snow will continue for a while. Additional accumations will probably be 1-2 inches in the metro at most with 2-3 more possible southeast of us.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 3, 2022 11:34:25 GMT -6
So... made a post about the bad roads... mentioned that interstate was driveable... but anything off the interstate was getting to be impassable to non 4wD. Does that sound like a call for people to go driving? How is that turning into a thing? I'm getting called out by some because they think I'm telling people its ok to drive! Is that what it sounds like? How could they read something into my post that was the complete opposite of what I was intending? Am I losing it?
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Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 3, 2022 11:29:18 GMT -6
Wife reports 7.5 and counting.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 3, 2022 10:33:08 GMT -6
Flake size improves in the enhanced green returns...not hamsters... but not tiny either.
Side roads and non-interstate roads are quickly becoming impassable or extremely challenginf for non-4 wheel drive vehicles.
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