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Post by toddatfarmington on Apr 9, 2018 10:32:03 GMT -6
SPC Discussion in reference to Friday severe potential: Farther north towards the lower Missouri and mid Mississippi Valleys, guidance also indicates a possibility for severe convection. However, a narrowing moist/warm sector towards the primary surface low yields greater uncertainty with the spatial placement of such convection during the afternoon/evening. In turn, 15-percent probabilities have not been expanded northward with this cycle, but could be in later updates. www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/So STL could very well be in the 15% possibility area in the coming days? I believe we some level of risk added as we get closer, likely "Marginal", however Slight risk is certainly possible, IMO
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Post by toddatfarmington on Apr 9, 2018 8:07:17 GMT -6
SPC Discussion in reference to Friday severe potential: Farther north towards the lower Missouri and mid Mississippi Valleys, guidance also indicates a possibility for severe convection. However, a narrowing moist/warm sector towards the primary surface low yields greater uncertainty with the spatial placement of such convection during the afternoon/evening. In turn, 15-percent probabilities have not been expanded northward with this cycle, but could be in later updates. www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/
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Post by toddatfarmington on Apr 8, 2018 14:23:50 GMT -6
Snow flurries KFAM
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Post by toddatfarmington on Apr 8, 2018 8:29:27 GMT -6
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Post by toddatfarmington on Apr 3, 2018 15:22:27 GMT -6
Looks like the worst is missing Todd just to the south with potential hail core. Thankfully. Had some decent hail reports 1/2 mile or less south of town, it was a close one. Haven't heard anything from that hail core than passed throught Reynolds/Iron county, but can't imagine they didnt take a fairly hard hit.
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Post by toddatfarmington on Apr 3, 2018 14:06:15 GMT -6
Some rotation showing up in the notch on the front of the line SE Viburnum
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Post by toddatfarmington on Apr 3, 2018 13:59:24 GMT -6
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Post by toddatfarmington on Apr 3, 2018 12:59:57 GMT -6
Just completed a conference call with NWS PAD, they indicated during there conference call with the SPC a PDS Watch was considered, but due to some uncertainty, they opted for a non-PDS watch at this time. They stressed that a few strong tornados were certainly possible.
Be safe!
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Post by toddatfarmington on Apr 3, 2018 12:38:42 GMT -6
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Post by toddatfarmington on Apr 3, 2018 12:01:05 GMT -6
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Post by toddatfarmington on Apr 3, 2018 10:29:36 GMT -6
Moderate Risk upgrade coming from SPC
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Post by toddatfarmington on Apr 2, 2018 12:27:09 GMT -6
A few changes to the SPC Outlook for today and tomorrow: www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/Discussion for Today: Have made several adjustments to the previous outlook based on 12z CAM and operational model guidance. The corridor of highest confidence in thunderstorm activity (along with isolated hail occurrences) will be from south-central MO late this afternoon into parts of southern IL/IN and northern KY tonight. Forecast soundings along this axis show ample elevated CAPE, steep lapse rates, and deep-layer shear for at least small hail production, and the potential for isolated severe hail in the strongest cells. Tommorrow looks like Slight boundaries very similar, Enhanced has been expanded and pulled slightly back to west into the bootheel.
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Post by toddatfarmington on Apr 1, 2018 19:32:03 GMT -6
30* and some lightning and thunder
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