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Post by bellevillewxguy on Mar 13, 2024 18:41:11 GMT -6
Drive down IL-159 would be something right now south of Belleville.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Mar 13, 2024 18:39:11 GMT -6
Smithton, IL getting nailed now. looks like it could be quarters to golfballs there based on the VIR and hail core.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Mar 13, 2024 16:54:37 GMT -6
Yeah, tomorrow looks like a potentially volatile day...good setup for discrete supercells with the weak height falls and the boundary situated more WSW to ENE Smells like our first Enhanced, possibly low end Moderate Risk tomorrow. Not saying that's what they'll go with, but depending on how fast we break the cap and how much sun we get, there's a shot.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Mar 13, 2024 9:04:24 GMT -6
Looks like some big time hailer potential out west again around KC into central/northern Missouri. Possible again Thursday night into very early Friday. Wouldn't be surprised to see some baseballs maybe even softballs this evening near KC, and tennis balls to baseballs on Thursday, especially again northwest of St. Louis. Still a shot at some quarters to golfballs here though Thursday night.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Mar 12, 2024 21:11:04 GMT -6
Models look wicked Thursday night into Friday. Might be a heavy rain set up if nothing else.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Mar 12, 2024 17:26:35 GMT -6
First Lawn Mow and mulch of the season under the old belt. Looks like I've got some of the neighbors to get at it too, by seeing me do my work earlier in the day. Now they're at it.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Mar 12, 2024 16:55:39 GMT -6
Some hailers already southeast of KC.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Mar 12, 2024 7:21:25 GMT -6
SPC starting to amp up Thursday especially west of St. Louis for severe storms.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Feb 16, 2024 13:20:57 GMT -6
Just might get the heaviest snow event of the season out of this one. Looks like already over 2" in West Belleville. Radar says a 2-3 more hours to go. Might get 3 to 4" here by the time it shuts down!
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Feb 16, 2024 10:01:01 GMT -6
I don't know why either.... Hey Grizzlebeard! long time no see. Seems like you always show up around this time in the season, then vanish again come March and especially April.
Meanwhile the big fun of this event seems to be coming up from Rolla, MO area now.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Feb 15, 2024 14:16:46 GMT -6
New Weeks CFS Monthlies look disgusting for Winter Weather Lovers. Flipped 180 to a very warm dry March. Looks like this week we'll be it with Spring here to stay after this week unless something changes that the models haven't sniffed out yet.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Feb 13, 2024 11:11:21 GMT -6
Relentless heat in February. Can only muster 1 below avg day until the 60s return Looks like the month will go with a bang in terms of 'heat' with 60-70s during the last 3-4 days of February and first 2 days in March, then it looks like things shift more in favor of a colder pattern. Nothing historic, but cold enough for some chances of snow and with greater instability and moisture there's a chance that somewhere could get a big dumping or 2 especially the first full week of March and perhaps around St. Patrick's Day. Then we warm up until the Eclipse 4/8/2024 before we get our last 'cold' shot of the season lasting about a week before we kick into an active warm spring pattern. Starting to hone in on Late April into early June for our best shots of Severe Weather and if El Nino does indeed collapse and start shifting into La Nina it could get gnarly.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Feb 12, 2024 13:46:01 GMT -6
So can we call winter over at this point. Far from it, unfortunately... Long range models say sorry about February, however agree that March will be the month of epic Winter bliss for our area/wheelhouse for sure... We'll see. We'll likely just keep 2 weeking ourselves to the Solar Eclipse and enter a busy severe weather pattern based on some of the latest CFS monthlies that come out twice a day or so. They have cut back on the Summer heat and drought though especially into July, then dry us out. Pretty typical actually.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Feb 11, 2024 14:50:01 GMT -6
Well better high and dry areawide as opposed to being just miles from a heavy snowfall and nothing at all. New models pretty much keep everything south of the Missouri and Illinois borders. Basically a Arkansas/Kentucky storm now.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Feb 11, 2024 7:43:32 GMT -6
New runs won't give St. Louis much if anything. Pretty much just the southern most quarter of the area now.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Feb 10, 2024 19:44:23 GMT -6
Almost a perfect Memphis low track coming up on the Euro and extended HRRR. Hopefully a good sign for the rest of the 00Z runs.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Feb 9, 2024 14:09:45 GMT -6
For some reason, our yard seems more brown than usual this year. I'll have to fire up the mower in the next couple weeks to bulldoze the mole hills from the end of last season. Tell me about it. Moles have been ridiculous this year. Lots of yards resemble minefields due to the amount of the suckers tunneling. Unfortunately trapping hasn't been reliable due to the lack of tunnels to trap as all I see is the mounts which are hard to trap.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Feb 9, 2024 12:22:07 GMT -6
It must really be spring... rosie just had a close encounter with our first snake of the the season. I saw a dandelion blooming yesterday, the ground is definitely warm should be able to start mowing our lawns soon! Maybe in 2 weeks?
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Feb 9, 2024 8:11:30 GMT -6
Was about to mention that, but peeps noticed last night. Could be a noisy night along and southeast of I-44/I-70 tonight including into the metro area. Might be some hailers tonight mainly quarter sized or less.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 23, 2024 11:47:23 GMT -6
I know JB is pretty vocal about the SOI being in positive territory when we're in an El Nino. He said the only other time that happened was in the winter of 65-66 and he said that was a weak El Nino. I know this one started off being strong and then just kind of fell off. Have to wonder about his opinion of vulcanism that has caused the rapid warming west of Australia and South America. I was pretty sure I heard him say that we were headed toward a strong La Nina. He was basing his hurricane forecast on that, I thought, but I just went back and couldn't find it. I will keep looking for it. I'm thinking the same thing, A strong La Nina that starts east based and becomes central/Modoki based as Summer and Fall progress. Affects on us are questionable. Plus side a Positive PDO is likely then, so that might keep an active MCS pattern going here with northwest flow in place, but drought will be a huge issue to the west and south as well as northeast. Just depends on what the MJO does, but it La Nina holds into next winter we might be in for a treat... Might.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 21, 2024 20:18:29 GMT -6
Got my salts down as my mother requested... For what good it's gonna do.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 21, 2024 20:10:14 GMT -6
Freezing Drizzle/Rain pings starting to come in from far southwest Missouri.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 21, 2024 20:08:20 GMT -6
Speaking of sleet... The FV3 hits us pretty good with moderate sleet for a few hours before switching to a sleet/FZRA mix, then several hours of freezing rain. It's stubborn to warm area along and north of I-70/I-64. Same on the HRRR as well.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 21, 2024 20:05:10 GMT -6
Which of course it won't... Just how our luck rolls. Seems like Ice, yeah, we'll cash in on that. A decent snowstorm? Perhaps when heck freezes over. Outside of the NAM, seems like this just keeps on getting worse and worse looking the closer it gets with cooler temps, lasting at or below freezing longer, and or greater QPF. Perhaps the NAM will pull a win, but with so much moisture pulling north from the gulf that seems doubtful, best hope is that it's heavier so that the droplets warm the air and ground quicker and no sleet to start otherwise it's gonna get gnarly fast even if it does start improving by mid to late afternoon tomorrow.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 21, 2024 8:03:35 GMT -6
Looks like winds have gone up as well with 10-20mph winds forecasted Monday into Monday night with gusts in excess of 25mph, so some breakage of branches and powerlines is possible especially if more than a quarter of an inch of ice is realized.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 21, 2024 8:00:39 GMT -6
12Z HRRR shows a significant ice storm for the northeastern half of the metro including downtown and the metro-east and points north and east going well into the evening Monday before switching over to a cold rain around 9-11PM Monday night. Likely a third of an inch of ice glaze from that run.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 20, 2024 9:37:22 GMT -6
RGEM goes bonkers with the ice, showing around a half inch of glaze in the Ozarks, and even .25-.35" inch along and east of the Mississippi River into much of southern Illinois. Keeps it freezing into Tuesday early AM before warming area wide.
*Tried to share, but Freezing Rain/Glaze products are a Pivotal Plus Sub thing and it won't let me share.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 20, 2024 9:26:51 GMT -6
Models having us in the mid/upper 20s during the first few hours of the event then struggle once they get around 32. Central Missouri rises quicker into the mid/upper 30s while eastern Missouri and most of Illinois linger between 32-25 degrees during the middle/latter part of the event. A couple more degrees colder and we could be looking at a significant icing event in some areas.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 20, 2024 9:22:50 GMT -6
Possible area for greatest concern of ice acceleration inside Magenta area. Amounts look around 0.1" or less outside the area, but inside of it could exceed 0.1" especially if colder solutions verify. Looks like it should stay under a quarter inch as intensity increases and temps push gradually above freezing making farther acceleration less likely.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 20, 2024 9:02:21 GMT -6
Some of the new Meso models keep us at around freezing until Monday afternoon possibly early evening on Monday especially away from the city and leeside of the American Bottom/Bluffs in Illinois. Might get a couple tenths of a glaze before it warms up later in the evening. FV3 even starts us out as sleet/FZRA mix for the first couple hours before switching to a FZRA/RA mix. Probably will get some kind of headline out of this. Probably not a warning due to the gradually warming temps.
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