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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 15, 2024 21:09:35 GMT -6
FV3 Kicks it off as early as Thursday morning, not long after midnight along and north of I-70 and has decent banding showing up. Watch that will be our 'big snow'. Always the ones that show up in the nearer term of the models. Not the ones a week plus out.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 15, 2024 21:07:20 GMT -6
Both NAMs look solid for our Thursday night system.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 15, 2024 19:12:40 GMT -6
Big olde fluffy hampsters are falling in West Belleville. Very translucent indicating high ratio/dry snow that kinda of scatters on impact.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 15, 2024 10:26:16 GMT -6
More worried about south of I-70 as far as drought. But unless it's wetter in February and March the drought will have an area to expand from and reinforce it's hold on the region. $20 says by March the talk is about high river levels and flooding. We go through this cycle every year. The Mississippi river and Missouri river can flood all it wants, but for those away from the flood plain and farmers it's not a good prospect. You can have river flooding and still technically be in a drought as its from all upstream, and away from the flood plain it's not going to help the local water tables.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 15, 2024 10:23:59 GMT -6
My question is, how is the drought building? We literally have had inches of rain the last few weeks. My best guess is that it from the deficit from last year and of course it does carry over into the next year. Plus rain in winter doesn't seem to have the same effect as rain in the summer especially considering the now frozen ground even down there. Unfortunately the monthly climate models are showing drier then normal QPF through the next several months with maybe May being near normal or a hair above. Summer looks bone dry.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 15, 2024 10:16:02 GMT -6
Just remember this is very misleading because the data is old. The region has seen a lot of rain and snow since the last update. For example, the area in IA probably has about 2.5”-3” of liquid equivalent locked up in their glacier. More worried about south of I-70 as far as drought. But unless it's wetter in February and March the drought will have an area to expand from and reinforce it's hold on the region.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 15, 2024 9:13:48 GMT -6
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 13, 2024 18:33:32 GMT -6
Any clues what's going to happen with Tomorrow or Monday's systems? Most models say nothing, but a couple tease us with Sunday and the RGEM/EURO/GEM give us a decent shot especially Monday. Nothing heavy, but similar or a little more amped up then this evening's event.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 13, 2024 18:30:33 GMT -6
Was a bit slick coming back from Swansea Schnucks, IL. North Belt, Frank Scott Parkway and subdivision all snow covered with higher traffic areas having some black ice. Not much traction. People taking it easy and driving 10-15 under the limit for the most part.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 13, 2024 8:24:11 GMT -6
Our 'sneaky' mini snow event today taking shape over northeastern Kansas. Models have most action north of 70, but could extend down to I-64. Might be a wind driven inch or so, perhaps 1-2 for the northern third of the area.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 11, 2024 21:39:10 GMT -6
Pings of .25" hail showing up east of Troy, MO and west of St. Paul, MO in the metro west.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 11, 2024 21:25:11 GMT -6
OK Let's take a census. How many of you are tired of me posting (doesn't matter the what the post is, but in general).Seriously I want a honest opinion, don't hold back. If I can get 10 people or more to say that they don't want me posting here then I'll stop posting and just lurk from now on, because other then a few of you and of course Chris I'm about done with this group. Because I'm always placed as the bad guy... Always.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 11, 2024 21:20:10 GMT -6
Getting hail reports and MPings from Northeast Oklahoma, Arkansas, and even southern Missouri. Nice showers and even some embedded thunder forming north of St. Louis.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 11, 2024 21:09:07 GMT -6
I'm sorry... but you're post are so ridiculous they are annoying. To be honest that's how I feel when you guys post and complain about when things don't work out the way people want (the snow weenies), like that's the only weather they care about. Not heat, not rain, or thunderstorms unless it's severe weather. I get soo tired of people whining about not getting snow that it drives me insane. This is a weather group, and all weather should be equal. Weather equality! Just because I like and prefer Summer and warmer weather and the storms or drought/high temps it brings you all chew me out for it. Yes, my 'forecasts' and predictions can be ridiculous but even a broken clock is right once or twice depending on the type of clock. And as mentioned in my previous post, the climate is changing and has been for decades if not a century and generally for the warmer. Things could change but for now I don't see a reversal anytime soon. We're still getting a cool storm tomorrow. Its not usual to get a sub 985mb low in or near St. Louis especially one that's bombing out as it passes along with some impressive winds. I get it for some it's a business thing and that's understandable, but I personally think that relying on a uncertain income source like winter weather year after year especially in this area annually is not a good investment going forward into the future and other sources might need to be found, especially when it comes to snow removal.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 11, 2024 20:50:49 GMT -6
Looks like the risk of any backside snow tomorrow is all but zero as moisture is long gone before cold enough air arrives with morning highs around 50, crashing to the mid 20s by dinner time. Precipitation looks to clear all but the northern most counties by lunchtime to 1-2PM at the latest. Perhaps the northern counties can catch a quick wind driven dusting but that seems less likely as well. We had 3 chances for a solid winter storm and pretty much all failed to deliver certainly to expectations. While next week is questionable as models flip flop between a persistently cold pattern and a warmer one there is only very weak signals of any impactful weather systems for the next 7-10 days after tomorrow. The cold air just couldn't settle in fast enough and the warmer air more persistent then expected a week ago. Which is why everything was ultimately more north then expected, and then the cold air does finally arrive it does with soo much strength that is suppresses anything too far south. If it's the bi-state region there's a million and one ways for us to get screwed and the 1 in 1,000,002 chance that everything works out perfect for a once in a generation storm, but then that's about it. Maybe February can deliver but unless it's a very cold airmass behind it, the snow won't stick for long, so usually we're ready for Summer anyway. I have since the last one ended. In 30-50 years we probably won't get winter weather here anymore due to climate change then we'll have to get excited about something else. Maybe tropical remnants and how high the temps can get?
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 10, 2024 20:43:10 GMT -6
South of I-44 and along and east of I-55 is where the flash freezing could be the biggest issue due to expected rainfall amounts and puddling that will exist on bridges, overpasses, and roadways in general. And as mentioned due to the risk of heavy rainfall there is no 'pre-treating'. North and west of there while there will be some rain, it ends sooner and is overall looking to be lighter and therefore might dry faster as the winds and cold dry air does it's thing. Gonna take longer out east.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 10, 2024 20:41:12 GMT -6
Aren't squall warnings relatively micro scale? Kinda like the warnings put out for that dust storm in the spring? Yeah... now that I think about it, that's probably not the right product for this either. With 50 mph winds, could go with high wind warning. Could do a winter weather advisory... but that doesn't sound bad enough to capture winds. If they were confident on at least some snow along with the winds... I think I would go with a short duration winter storm warning... for combo of wind, cold and some snow. High Wind Warning is non-thunderstorm wind gusts of 55mph or greater I believe. Probably just looking at a high-end Wind Advisory with a short fuse Winter Weather Advisory if the snow pans out and if nothing else for the flash freezing as the cold air plunges in and the potential for black ice as well as what snow does fall if any.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 10, 2024 20:17:36 GMT -6
Thing's gonna look like a flipping hurricane on land. HRRR even kinda forms an 'eye' like feature and 'eyewall' as it passes into eastern Illinois and Indiana. Impressive. Also insane rain before a 2-3 hour kick over to heavy wet snow with winds up to 45-55mph. That's about the best we can hope for. At least it's not boring.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 10, 2024 16:00:37 GMT -6
18Z GFS still playing the south of the area game for Sunday's system.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 10, 2024 14:30:08 GMT -6
RAP 15Z extended run seeing 60mph+ gusts on the Illinois side with widespread 45-55mph gusts for the rest of the area Friday around midday.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 10, 2024 14:21:47 GMT -6
Low pressure over Missouri is replaced by another stronger low forming over the Bootheel as the north/central Missouri low which was the primary gets absorbed. Interesting.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 10, 2024 14:17:40 GMT -6
18Z NAM pulling more and more north by the run. Looks like even Chicago and Quincy won't get much snow either, so at least we're not the only ones. Might be getting close to some marginal severe risk southeast of I-44/I-70 with that run. Even some Hodographs showing some sickles.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 10, 2024 11:14:28 GMT -6
Last 8 days of January thaw solidly visible on the GFS at the end of it's run. Looks like a solid blast furnace. Can't wait. Maybe we can hope for the warmest Feb 1st on record. Perhaps 80 degrees? No the GFS doesn't quite go that far, but just saying with our luck. Looking forward to mowing my lawn in February though! Hey if we're only going to get missed or token amounts might as well be warm so we can get storms and severe weather potential or heat... Trying reverse psychology here!
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 10, 2024 11:08:04 GMT -6
BTW Summer 2024 looks like a 2012 redux if not worse thanks to a forecasted very strong central based La Nina developing and a Negative PNA pattern (colder waters off the West Coast) which helps pump a enormous ridge in the central US and Mississippi River Valley. Would be lots of 594-600+ DM ridging potential there. Needless to say it would be a bone dry pattern not good for the farmers. Weve seen La Ninas along with negative PNAs before without any 2012 temp extreme. I think you need to dig deeper into analogues before replaying your annual midwinter/middle of an active pattern summer outlook so freely. What are you seeing that you havent discussed to make you think 2024 is a 2012 redux? Just going with what the Ensemble climate outlooks say like the CFS/Candian/NMME and Euro seasonals say and using the assumed positions based on sea surface temp anomalies. Colder water tends to attract troughing, and warmer ridging. Follow the pattern a trough would be favored in the west coast into the Rockies and a ridge out in the central US to the Appalachians with us in the middle of said warm bubble. Of course things not predicted that far out like MJOs and NAO/AO to name a few are unpredictable at that range but the oceans are vast and the biggest climate driver of the planet, so usually but not always the atmosphere is going to respond to temp anomalies in the ocean especially if extreme or large in size. Sometimes it's right, sometimes wrong. Also can't help that with Climate change and what has transpired over the last decade or so, is that those trends will continue.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 10, 2024 11:00:08 GMT -6
Arctic air will be too strong on Sunday and Monday so a drier scenario is likely, but what does fall will be powdery stuff due to high ratios.
As mentioned it either comes together too late or too soon. Shows how hard it is to get a honest to Creator/God snowstorm/winter storm in St. Louis. The curse continues. Cold air too weak or slow, or too strong and it's suppression city as moisture is shoved south.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 10, 2024 10:58:56 GMT -6
Seems like Sunshine for days and or weeks and nothing to track in the models is the preferred outcome for most on here if there isn't going to be any snow or exciting winter weather.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 10, 2024 9:27:15 GMT -6
BTW Summer 2024 looks like a 2012 redux if not worse thanks to a forecasted very strong central based La Nina developing and a Negative PNA pattern (colder waters off the West Coast) which helps pump a enormous ridge in the central US and Mississippi River Valley. Would be lots of 594-600+ DM ridging potential there. Needless to say it would be a bone dry pattern not good for the farmers. So 2024 will be the 12th summer like 2012 in a row?? 🤦🏼♂️ Last Summer while hotter then normal was not a 2012 repeat despite my earlier hype. Only 3 days reached 99*F or above at least here in Belleville. Perhaps 4-5 days @ downtown and they were not in a row. Humidity was more a killer then the temps. Next year looks more favorable for bigger longer lasting heat waves that could last several days in a row. That's what made 2012 'special'.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 10, 2024 9:24:46 GMT -6
Just for Fun AccuNot has below normal temps and rain for 4/8/2024's total solar eclipse which is now into view of their 90 day outlook.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 10, 2024 9:18:42 GMT -6
RGEM throws us a small milkbone with 3-4" along a thin line along and south of I-70 through the heart of the metro Friday evening as the system pulls away. Looks like Dustings to an inch for everyone else from the backside. Boatload of rain though which is needed if the Spring and Summer fail to deliver.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 10, 2024 8:56:52 GMT -6
BTW Summer 2024 looks like a 2012 redux if not worse thanks to a forecasted very strong central based La Nina developing and a Negative PNA pattern (colder waters off the West Coast) which helps pump a enormous ridge in the central US and Mississippi River Valley. Would be lots of 594-600+ DM ridging potential there. Needless to say it would be a bone dry pattern not good for the farmers.
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