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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 18, 2022 13:29:00 GMT -6
Check out the SOI...it's taken a huge downturn in the past 10 days or so which signals an active period of weather late month. www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/soi/Last 3-4 days of January into the first 8-10 Days of February though could go through Valentines Day could be the climax of Winter for us. Likely a break with a big time warm up afterwards with some potential for more cold and snow in March depending on what the PV does.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 18, 2022 13:26:53 GMT -6
HRRR keeps creeping more north...
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 18, 2022 12:45:45 GMT -6
Many thanks, 920. A weekly update would go a long way...just saying The -EPO gives me some hope for a legit S stream snowstorm or two heading into late month and possibly early February/GHD. And it certainly supports the idea of fairly sustained cold and clippers when coupled with the +PNA The GFS would seem to support this theory. A train of clippers between 1/23 and 1/25 and then a beaut around GHD. Yeah, love the GFS' B-Day (my birthday on 2/1) Storm the 1st into the 2nd of February.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 18, 2022 12:44:15 GMT -6
NWS introducing 20-50% pops Wednesday afternoon along and south of I-44/I-70 (Higher chances south)
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 18, 2022 11:21:19 GMT -6
FWIW the Japanese Model, JMA is onboard especially from the metro and points south and east.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 18, 2022 10:50:59 GMT -6
UKMET still by far the least impressed by this system, but nails the low country of North and South Carolina though, because why not?
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 18, 2022 10:34:11 GMT -6
This has potential to be a sneaky snow maker for parts of the area...would love to see the vort max track jog just a bit north. RAP actually closes the thing off briefly in the Texas Panhandle before opening it back up again which is sorta new.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 18, 2022 10:32:51 GMT -6
12Z GEFS ensembles and the NBM have shifted south of St. Louis a bit with the QPF shield though compared to 6Z... Who knows maybe it will bust north this time.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 18, 2022 10:27:48 GMT -6
Nice jog north on the 12Z runs for tomorrow's system, but still shy of the metro. It is getting quite close and I think we could still see at least some 'salt shaker' type flake action with a very light dusting along I-44/I-70 with up to 2-3 inches in the far southeastern most counties.
Heck even the Canadian is now onboard.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 16, 2022 9:32:27 GMT -6
Nevermind on the ICON it lost it much farther south in 12Z. 6Z was the more interesting run, but technically showed rain not snow. The NAM was snow.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 16, 2022 9:27:23 GMT -6
NAM also hinting even the ICON of the Wednesday system being more north and yielding an inch or 2 of snow from the metro south as well. One Run 2 models, but its something to watch in the short to mid term in case the trend continues.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 16, 2022 9:26:01 GMT -6
That clipper digging through this evening looks like it might bring an hour or two burst of snow after dark. It actually looks pretty healthy at 500mb with some LER jet dynamics with a band of mid-level Fgen sweeping through...unfortunately it has some dry air to overcome and it's moving through quickly so it probably won't amount to much. But I do think we'll see some snow fly sometime between 6 and 10PM. looks like some snow/flurry snakes/streamers tomorrow AM as well on some of the higher def models.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 15, 2022 15:23:26 GMT -6
The Earth rang like a bell as they like to say. Depending on how long it erupts or if it's multiple eruptions it could beat the 1991 Eruption, but be shy of the 1800s year without a Summer eruption VEI 6 most likely but just imagine if this thing was on land and not underwater. That could of spelled issues for the growing season, coming out of a la Nina this Summer if not by Spring already means the global patterns will be in flux, this could add more mess to long range model confusion. We've been due for a 'big' one somewhere in the world for sometime. Perhaps this is now it?
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 15, 2022 14:02:35 GMT -6
Models have been juicing up this little shortwave the past day or so, and now with last night's system out of the way models can better focus on that. No big system by any stretch but something fun to watch. At the very least it could be wintry looking Sunday night into Monday early AM.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 15, 2022 13:59:48 GMT -6
Sunday night could be an inch or 2 for somebody especially along and east of the Mississippi River.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 14, 2022 20:10:33 GMT -6
Singing in the rain @ West Belleville, IL
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 14, 2022 13:34:06 GMT -6
18Z HRRR looking sweet for the metro and points west.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 14, 2022 12:10:31 GMT -6
RAP 16 and 17Z are better though... Nice stinger right into the metro of high QPF.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 13, 2022 21:48:31 GMT -6
GFS 33hrs in, but looking sweet so far.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 13, 2022 21:31:02 GMT -6
Nothing really new with the RGEM, maybe a tad drier if anything, but still mostly snow.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 13, 2022 20:52:26 GMT -6
ARW WRF is really bringing the beef with it's run... Snow Galore.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 13, 2022 16:12:10 GMT -6
21Z RAP looks pretty Swell.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 13, 2022 16:09:43 GMT -6
18Z GEFS cuts back on QPF a bit through 60 hours.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 13, 2022 16:03:29 GMT -6
Nice little 'bonus' piece of energy Saturday late night into Sunday AM. Pretty amped up shortwave moving through with some lift. Limited moisture but I could see a surprise 1-2" out of it for some.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 13, 2022 15:50:44 GMT -6
Burst of Hamsters per the GFS around Sunrise Saturday.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 12, 2022 15:57:49 GMT -6
18Z GFS looking pretty sweet...
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 12, 2022 8:46:52 GMT -6
GFS 6Z pretty much was the same thing, but a bit farther north so we stay in the precip shield especially along and south of I-70 on that one.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 12, 2022 8:44:31 GMT -6
Nam looks too far south in my opinion It was, takes it into the Arklatex region, but surface low is pulling back northward at the end of the run. That might be something to watch.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 12, 2022 8:40:09 GMT -6
75HR has a phasing starting over Oklahoma.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 12, 2022 8:38:30 GMT -6
12Z NAM might be suggesting an earlier Southern System transition. This would be very favorable to us, as long as it isn't suppressed too far south and west.
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