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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 12, 2022 8:40:09 GMT -6
75HR has a phasing starting over Oklahoma.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 12, 2022 8:38:30 GMT -6
12Z NAM might be suggesting an earlier Southern System transition. This would be very favorable to us, as long as it isn't suppressed too far south and west.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 12, 2022 8:04:19 GMT -6
12Z Model blend is a Kaboom, especially south and east of I-255/I-64 Huh? You might not have access to it... It's a premium Pivotal Weather subscription thing. My guess it's an ensemble mean of some kind.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 12, 2022 7:47:49 GMT -6
12Z Model blend is a Kaboom, especially south and east of I-255/I-64
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 11, 2022 22:04:55 GMT -6
0Z GFS carbon Copy of 18Z essentially.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 7, 2022 21:08:31 GMT -6
Models trending colder and longer a bit each run hour of the HRRR/RAP. Might be a bigger deal then expected. Some models don't clear the metro-east from freezing temps until 3-4PM, but only show largely light amounts in the meantime. Bringing heavy precipitation after temps rise above freezing, and even then mainly southeast of St. Louis.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 6, 2022 12:32:00 GMT -6
PV at the end of the 12Z GFS around the 20th-23rd is definitely something. Not just bitter or frigid, but ungodly, pipebursting cold. One run, almost certainly overdone but good to see my MLK day into Valentine's Day peak/highlight of Winter time frame poking in from time to time in the extended ranges.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 5, 2022 9:32:57 GMT -6
Looks like just enough motivation to take the holiday decorations down... Perhaps.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 4, 2022 15:55:24 GMT -6
18Z GFS dry as a bone.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 4, 2022 12:44:30 GMT -6
Obviously the pros still have to monitor this of course because of reputation and what not, but for us hobbyist and those without public dependence can just give this one up. On to the next one in about 2 weeks...
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 4, 2022 12:42:19 GMT -6
I think this thing is toast. No snow for us this week.
Not till after MLK Day.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Dec 31, 2021 23:24:32 GMT -6
Beauty of a Polar Vortex on MLK Day though per the GFS. Holy Smokes!
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Dec 31, 2021 21:34:08 GMT -6
Yes we're seeing both 'Traditional Tornado Alley' Shift north and west overall and a later season (June into August), but also Dixie Alley as well shifting/expanding northwest and also being more active in the colder months, November into April before tropical airmasses dominate the eastern 2/3rds of the US during the May-September period and sometimes extending later into the Fall. Doesn't mean it will be this way every year, but long term trends are heading that direction. Seasonal Lag and Shifts will continue as well.
Hoosier Alley into Prairie State (IN/IL) is also a thing which includes St. Louis with highly variable tornado frequency and timing being a concern. Our tornado potential has actually dropped a bit the past 10 or so years but overall should be ramping back up as we progress through time I would think.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Dec 31, 2021 12:10:31 GMT -6
SuperBowl the 30th of January or the 6th of February? Pretty sure it’s the 13th. 17 game regular season pushed everything back a week: Gotta, makes sense as barring any winter storms and after this weekend that's usually when it gets packed again at the supermarkets that's why I'm checking.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Dec 31, 2021 11:44:38 GMT -6
The fact the Canadian, ICON, and GFS as well as the EURO have the next week system with all but the EURO slamming us might be the kiss of death, but the fact most models show it is promising this far out that at least there will be system in the Missouri River into Mid-Mississippi River Valleys is increasing.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Dec 31, 2021 11:41:23 GMT -6
SuperBowl the 30th of January or the 6th of February?
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Dec 31, 2021 11:39:01 GMT -6
Heading out for party supplies for the big Hour tonight. Schnucks is 'As Busy as it Gets' almost metro-wide according to Google's Live Busyness-o-Meter. Remember stores close @ 8PM tonight and reopen 9AM tomorrow! Plan accordingly!
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Dec 31, 2021 11:35:54 GMT -6
In fact after today and tomorrow AM it looks like we won't be seeing 50s or higher anytime soon for temps with most days near or below freezing with some pretty frigid days mixed in there per the GFS. Again could be wrong, but encouraging nonetheless.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Dec 31, 2021 11:33:56 GMT -6
Probably already mentioned but monster storm on the GFS for the 13th of January, classic 6-10"er
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Dec 31, 2021 11:32:05 GMT -6
Off Topic Sad Note: Schnucks stop carrying Mrs. T's Pierogies a stuffed frozen potato snack you bake. They have a store brand though now. Hopefully it's OK.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Dec 31, 2021 11:28:41 GMT -6
6th-7th has me very interested.., That's an impressive lobe of the Polar Vortex diving down what looks almost like a Hybrid Blue Northern. It's transient but packs a punch. Should squeeze out almost every bit of moisture with solid lift moving through. Could see a Jan 2014 like storm with that feature on the max high end, but in reality its still weaker and faster than that system was. Nevertheless 3-5" with higher amounts could be possible if everything comes together right. Would be some pretty fluffy stuff too with raising snow to liquid ratios as the system passes and polar air surges in.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Dec 31, 2021 11:24:01 GMT -6
can't wait to see what happens to screw up next week's possible snow. The 5-8" the GFS has now is way too good to be true..being in the "bullseye" this far out is never a good thing. At least it's something to look and keep our interest now. That wasn't the case just like 7-10 days when many on this board (including myself) were giving up on winter weather in Jan haha. I said maybe bellevillewxguys prediction of a 2012 winter wasn't too far off lol. I just had to be a little more patient! But who knows, maybe this winter will be a dud, but it's at least looking more promising for some winter fun! Said it was possible... Did state things would get better by MLK Day. We're stepping in the right direction, but it's gonna be condensed. Think a Campbell's Soup kind of Winter, with a faster start to Spring... Hints April into early May could be a step back before the blast furnace of Summer.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Dec 30, 2021 21:10:51 GMT -6
Gonna say it... Someone could hit 70 tomorrow south of I-44 into Belleville, IL. Hi-Res models showing a pocket of clearing to partly cloudy skies around time of peak heating. If that verifies there could be some 69-71*F readings. (Record Warm New Year's Eve anyone?)
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Dec 30, 2021 21:08:11 GMT -6
RPDS/RGEM coming out.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Dec 30, 2021 21:05:02 GMT -6
Might see a flip of warmer and drier per the 00Z Model Blend per Pivotal. Drier north of I-70 and warmer south of I-70. While not a forecast of any one model it does show that we could be seeing some more shifting and not for the good if you want winter weather south of I-70. Storm potential creeps up as well south of a Salem, MO to Salem, IL line. (see what I did there? with the Salems? That is where the threat zone is though and points south.)
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Dec 30, 2021 20:59:42 GMT -6
I've got Pivotal Premium and yes for kicks the WRF NSSL does have St. Charles getting over .75" of Ice Acceleration, but certainly way over blown.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Dec 30, 2021 20:54:23 GMT -6
What I could... See as an issue is at the very end when nuclei/dendrites are lost at the very end of the precip shield as the mid to upper 20s temps moving in as a weak impulse passes through south of the Quasi-Deformation Zone is some freezing drizzle/grauple that combined with freezing of already fallen rain fall could bring a nasty icy mess for Church goers Sunday AM. The precip will be likely over by then or just flurries but side roads and elevated surfaces/overpasses/ramps could be slippery!
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Dec 30, 2021 20:49:28 GMT -6
whatever the wrf-nssl is, im sure it is not reliable, but it is nasty for the metro Convective models, but yeah they are a bit colder especially ARWv2 which would bring the real icing threat to as far south as St. Charles County, MO but again, heavy QPF rates and warm ground as well as what Chris explained earlier would mitigate things a lot.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Dec 30, 2021 20:46:32 GMT -6
I do think we've got a solid shot at something with an arctic front/clipper hybrid around the 6th-8th time frame. Models have been hinting at it for a couple runs but might get clearer once we get the weekend storm out of the way.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Dec 30, 2021 20:42:23 GMT -6
NAM farther south with secondary low on Sunday though, so no flakes south of I-44/I-70. As mentioned above if the ground was colder and we didn't have 60s for highs, but instead upper 30s or even 40s for highs the previous days Friday/Sat AM then I'd be more concerned for the metro and points north, but quite frankly it's gonna be tough getting anything significant southeast of a Jefferson City, MO to Springfield, IL line. I'd be more concern about a northwestward shift last minute granting us Severe Storms south of I-44/I-70 (MO/IL) IMO.
I'm NOT saying that there won't be significant Winter Weather, I just think it will only be a major factor for the lower populated northwestern third of the viewing area and not for most of us. BRTNWXMAN might cash in on something interesting though and anyone else up that way and points northwest.
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