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Post by cozpregon on Jan 19, 2024 22:38:28 GMT -6
NAM would be a mess into the afternoon on Monday
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Post by cozpregon on Jan 18, 2024 15:10:12 GMT -6
Upstream radar around Omaha looks pretty good Numerous 1/2 and 1/4 vis obs
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Post by cozpregon on Jan 18, 2024 15:09:08 GMT -6
Soundings look good for a few hours later this evening. Any chance Parkway and Rockwood get another snow day tomorrow? I never guess what others may do
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Post by cozpregon on Jan 18, 2024 13:17:19 GMT -6
Also looks like tonights snow looks healthy on radar up northwest Soundings look good for a few hours later this evening.
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Post by cozpregon on Jan 18, 2024 12:47:47 GMT -6
Probably why you need to check the weather before making forecasts
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Post by cozpregon on Jan 15, 2024 21:13:05 GMT -6
That is very much true
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Post by cozpregon on Jan 14, 2024 21:05:06 GMT -6
Nice looking soundings across the area tomorrow evening.
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Post by cozpregon on Jan 14, 2024 21:03:13 GMT -6
Ice on the rivers will be impressive the next couple weeks.
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Post by cozpregon on Jan 12, 2024 17:44:34 GMT -6
That... and the unidirectional wind thru the column is creating these streamers
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Post by cozpregon on Jan 11, 2024 21:14:04 GMT -6
I never complain. Your climate change crap needs to go.
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Post by cozpregon on Jan 11, 2024 20:58:10 GMT -6
I'm sorry... but you're post are so ridiculous they are annoying.
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Post by cozpregon on Jan 10, 2024 22:28:49 GMT -6
The GFS tries to wrap something up in our wheelhouse
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Post by cozpregon on Jan 10, 2024 21:06:31 GMT -6
It's more how quickly we can get the 850 temps to wrap up... going negative quickens the process. The surface low jumping around will be a reflection of that.
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Post by cozpregon on Jan 10, 2024 20:43:40 GMT -6
Yeah... now that I think about it, that's probably not the right product for this either. With 50 mph winds, could go with high wind warning. Could do a winter weather advisory... but that doesn't sound bad enough to capture winds. If they were confident on at least some snow along with the winds... I think I would go with a short duration winter storm warning... for combo of wind, cold and some snow. High Wind Warning is non-thunderstorm wind gusts of 55mph or greater I believe. Probably just looking at a high-end Wind Advisory with a short fuse Winter Weather Advisory if the snow pans out and if nothing else for the flash freezing as the cold air plunges in and the potential for black ice as well as what snow does fall if any. Have you read any of the posts prior?
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Post by cozpregon on Jan 10, 2024 20:42:13 GMT -6
Why does the model 'jump' the red 'L' around so much. At hr 39 we have a 988 L in NW Ark. 3 hrs later we have a 984 L north of STL. WTH I'm guessing that as it goes negative, it's deepening and redeveloping the low north
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Post by cozpregon on Jan 10, 2024 20:38:50 GMT -6
That would paralyze traffic... I'd do the blizzard warning
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Post by cozpregon on Jan 10, 2024 20:34:30 GMT -6
NAMs are a tick late
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Post by cozpregon on Jan 10, 2024 20:18:33 GMT -6
If that were the scenario for 2-3 hours they would have to issue blizzard warnings. It's not winter storm criteria. That would be as high as impact it gets around here.
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Post by cozpregon on Jan 10, 2024 20:11:37 GMT -6
and 50+ winds while it's snowing
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Post by cozpregon on Jan 10, 2024 20:02:15 GMT -6
It's you. It's late morning... early afternoon
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Post by cozpregon on Jan 10, 2024 15:27:11 GMT -6
RAP gets a nice negative tilt... helps stack the system quicker
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Post by cozpregon on Jan 10, 2024 15:18:47 GMT -6
I have seen storms similar like this... and it would not surprise me to see the cold air collapse quicker like the RAP and HRRR are showing.
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Post by cozpregon on Jan 10, 2024 12:18:13 GMT -6
Weve seen La Ninas along with negative PNAs before without any 2012 temp extreme. I think you need to dig deeper into analogues before replaying your annual midwinter/middle of an active pattern summer outlook so freely. What are you seeing that you havent discussed to make you think 2024 is a 2012 redux? Just going with what the Ensemble climate outlooks say like the CFS/Candian/NMME and Euro seasonals say and using the assumed positions based on sea surface temp anomalies. Colder water tends to attract troughing, and warmer ridging. Follow the pattern a trough would be favored in the west coast into the Rockies and a ridge out in the central US to the Appalachians with us in the middle of said warm bubble. Of course things not predicted that far out like MJOs and NAO/AO to name a few are unpredictable at that range but the oceans are vast and the biggest climate driver of the planet, so usually but not always the atmosphere is going to respond to temp anomalies in the ocean especially if extreme or large in size. Sometimes it's right, sometimes wrong. Also can't help that with Climate change and what has transpired over the last decade or so, is that those trends will continue. But you say the same thing every winter... maybe mix it up once in awhile, because you are rarely correct.
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Post by cozpregon on Jan 8, 2024 22:28:45 GMT -6
Hey 920. When you told me the other day to use the depth Positive change for snowfall totals with this current storm. Is that a more accurate representation to use with all storms or just certain ones? I know in the past I used to see alot more of the snow ratio talk, like 10:1 on here. And I know that only goes so far Anyways. But is one or the other better to use. Or does it always come down to the dynamics of a storm on which one to use. I assume drier snow, wetter snow factors into all that. Anyone can answer, doesn't necessarily have to be you. Thx Positive snow depth change is what the model thinks will actually accumulate on the ground. Generally it’s the best to use for snowfall accumulations. It’s not perfect though, and shouldn’t be used in a vacuum. Yeah- that would suck
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Post by cozpregon on Jan 7, 2024 15:44:41 GMT -6
2 more years
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Post by cozpregon on Jan 6, 2024 1:54:27 GMT -6
When I forecasted for the DOT and airports... they scheduled their shifts specifically around those advisories. Yeah... times are changing. It is still several years away and it will definitely take some getting used to. I miss the old "Travelers Advisory" days which of course dates me. Stockman's Advisories in the Plains
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Post by cozpregon on Jan 6, 2024 1:52:55 GMT -6
Guessing it's just going to private weather firms
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Post by cozpregon on Jan 6, 2024 1:45:52 GMT -6
When I forecasted for the DOT and airports... they scheduled their shifts specifically around those advisories.
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Post by cozpregon on Jan 6, 2024 1:26:21 GMT -6
Huh
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Post by cozpregon on Jan 6, 2024 1:19:52 GMT -6
3.7” here in Crestwood
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