mccarthb
Junior Forecaster
O'Fallon, MO - Outer Road near border of Dardenne Prarie
Posts: 443
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Post by mccarthb on Jan 14, 2022 16:29:47 GMT -6
Temp has been jumping up and down like crazy in O’Fallon. My POS thermometer reads 45 but Google that’s locked into my exact location says it’s 41. Can anyone confirm that lives this way?
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mccarthb
Junior Forecaster
O'Fallon, MO - Outer Road near border of Dardenne Prarie
Posts: 443
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Post by mccarthb on Jan 14, 2022 16:16:31 GMT -6
Anyone that uses the MyRadar app, Tim Jones (a met in Des Moines) is live on his dash-cam and it is pouring snow!
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mccarthb
Junior Forecaster
O'Fallon, MO - Outer Road near border of Dardenne Prarie
Posts: 443
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Post by mccarthb on Jan 14, 2022 15:54:06 GMT -6
We have arrived in Cincy. Drove through a defined boundary just east of STL where temp dropped into low 30s this AM and fog was THICK. Seems not much has changed... and no reason to change 2-4. Steady as she goes! Sorry you have to miss it man.
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mccarthb
Junior Forecaster
O'Fallon, MO - Outer Road near border of Dardenne Prarie
Posts: 443
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Post by mccarthb on Jan 14, 2022 15:49:58 GMT -6
The SREF Plume Viewer has 26 member ensemble. Here is the link SREF
Not sure if this will open up in OKC city like mine does and I have to click on STL on the map. Sorry it took so long to reply.....I gots my surfin' clothes on. After you click on STL it will show what run it is near the top, then you can click on whatever parameter you want from the choices there. Appreciate it. As funny as it sounds, I thought you were referring to 6 members of this community that reside in the 6+” bullseye spots 🤣 smh
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mccarthb
Junior Forecaster
O'Fallon, MO - Outer Road near border of Dardenne Prarie
Posts: 443
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Post by mccarthb on Jan 14, 2022 14:53:40 GMT -6
Yikes, SREF 15z down to a mean of 2" snow. Still has 6 members above 4" up to 7.5". What do you mean by 6 members?
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mccarthb
Junior Forecaster
O'Fallon, MO - Outer Road near border of Dardenne Prarie
Posts: 443
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Post by mccarthb on Jan 14, 2022 14:05:39 GMT -6
Des moinse may be struggling because it is marginal temps during peak heating, and least our snow is coming at dark Exactly my thoughts as well. The timing is much more ideal with the onset arriving around dusk or just after.
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mccarthb
Junior Forecaster
O'Fallon, MO - Outer Road near border of Dardenne Prarie
Posts: 443
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Post by mccarthb on Jan 14, 2022 13:56:36 GMT -6
I almost want to attach my accurite thermometer to my drone and watch how fast the temp drops as it slowly elevates.
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mccarthb
Junior Forecaster
O'Fallon, MO - Outer Road near border of Dardenne Prarie
Posts: 443
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Post by mccarthb on Jan 14, 2022 10:31:52 GMT -6
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mccarthb
Junior Forecaster
O'Fallon, MO - Outer Road near border of Dardenne Prarie
Posts: 443
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Post by mccarthb on Jan 14, 2022 10:26:26 GMT -6
O’Fallon - Spiked to 39 followed by a quick drop to 37. Two degree drop in 10 minutes. 😳
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mccarthb
Junior Forecaster
O'Fallon, MO - Outer Road near border of Dardenne Prarie
Posts: 443
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Post by mccarthb on Jan 14, 2022 9:53:42 GMT -6
What would qualify on NWS clock as “late afternoon”. 3pm?
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mccarthb
Junior Forecaster
O'Fallon, MO - Outer Road near border of Dardenne Prarie
Posts: 443
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Post by mccarthb on Jan 14, 2022 9:46:49 GMT -6
Look at all that radar juice.. It’s a beaut Clark!
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mccarthb
Junior Forecaster
O'Fallon, MO - Outer Road near border of Dardenne Prarie
Posts: 443
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Post by mccarthb on Jan 14, 2022 9:36:29 GMT -6
Speaking of surprises, when was the last time we've really overperformed. Like I'm talking forecasted for 2-4 and we get 7 or 8?? 82??? When was the last time we had a major bust where we were projected to get 6+ and would up with nothing? Not saying we’ll get half a foot with this one but I do remember back in ‘07-‘08 when we had a storm where the onset was supposed to be sleet and quickly changeover. It never did and became a sleet nightmare. Anyone remember that doozy? Edit** Think it was actually ‘06 or ‘07 Edit II *** But let’s not talk about busts. Let’s go back to ‘82!
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mccarthb
Junior Forecaster
O'Fallon, MO - Outer Road near border of Dardenne Prarie
Posts: 443
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Post by mccarthb on Jan 14, 2022 9:31:08 GMT -6
I just noticed this. That's quite remarkable...or you need some sort of intervention. I'm not sure which.
Snowman99 Moderator ***** Ban Hammer Posts: 10,009
Edit: You, too...
Snowstorm920 Weather God *****
Arnold, Mo Posts: 9,985
Hi, my name is snowstorm920 and I have a weather addiction 😆😆😆
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mccarthb
Junior Forecaster
O'Fallon, MO - Outer Road near border of Dardenne Prarie
Posts: 443
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Post by mccarthb on Jan 13, 2022 23:43:34 GMT -6
You crack me up. Never fails. Neither do you Look, I have TONS of respect for you. It’s for that very reason that I point out the differences in the way you post. You are one of the smartest casters on this forum. But it’s the quick throwing in the !Drying Cloth! too early rants that put everyone on edge because so many have faith in your experience, time and science you put into your analysis. This forum wouldn’t be the same without you. Maybe I come across as a prick and I apologize if you feel that way. But it’s not my intention to be a prick. It’s just my way of telling you to take a step back, take a deep breath and think before posting a soap box after a few negative model prints. Like always, STL will always be on that hairline gradient of all or nothing. Just know that I respect you and have appreciated your analysis for quite a while. You’re a great person and I only mean the best.
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mccarthb
Junior Forecaster
O'Fallon, MO - Outer Road near border of Dardenne Prarie
Posts: 443
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Post by mccarthb on Jan 13, 2022 17:05:36 GMT -6
What stage are we at again? COLD NOVEMBER RAIN... You crack me up. Never fails.
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mccarthb
Junior Forecaster
O'Fallon, MO - Outer Road near border of Dardenne Prarie
Posts: 443
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Post by mccarthb on Jan 13, 2022 15:47:59 GMT -6
I majored in MIS and my career is behind a computer but I can't figure out how to get a jpg to reflect on screen in this forum using PC You have to upload to a server like Imgur and then C&P the link using the little picture tab. After 92 tries, I got it to work. Christmas of '09.
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mccarthb
Junior Forecaster
O'Fallon, MO - Outer Road near border of Dardenne Prarie
Posts: 443
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Post by mccarthb on Jan 13, 2022 15:38:03 GMT -6
I majored in MIS and my career is behind a computer but I can't figure out how to get a jpg to reflect on screen in this forum using PC You have to upload to a server like Imgur and then C&P the link using the little picture tab. Ahh, makes sense. I'd rather upload from tapatalk lol. I'm determined to find this storm you're referring to. I'm on a mission.
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mccarthb
Junior Forecaster
O'Fallon, MO - Outer Road near border of Dardenne Prarie
Posts: 443
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Post by mccarthb on Jan 13, 2022 15:30:32 GMT -6
Feb 2011 perhaps? <<http://voices.washingtonpost.com/capitalweathergang/images/midwest-storm-020211.jpg>> No, that was a classic Southern Low that ejected out of the 4 Corners region. I majored in MIS and my career is behind a computer but I can't figure out how to get a jpg to reflect on screen in this forum using PC
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mccarthb
Junior Forecaster
O'Fallon, MO - Outer Road near border of Dardenne Prarie
Posts: 443
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Post by mccarthb on Jan 13, 2022 15:15:52 GMT -6
Interesting. I wish there was a way to dig up an archive of storms with maps revealing how they took shape. I know history likes to repeat itself pertaining to weather overall (especially in the winter). Thanks for clarifying. There is. The problem is you have to know the date to look it up, lol. Feb 2011 perhaps? <<http://voices.washingtonpost.com/capitalweathergang/images/midwest-storm-020211.jpg>>
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mccarthb
Junior Forecaster
O'Fallon, MO - Outer Road near border of Dardenne Prarie
Posts: 443
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Post by mccarthb on Jan 13, 2022 14:45:04 GMT -6
When was the last time a storm like this occurred where a SE pivot swiveled NW for a wrap-around event in the metro? It seems like there was a storm several years back that dug strongly down the Central Plains towards the Red River Valley and managed to cut off and pivot soon enough for us to get the goods or maybe the S counties got it...can't remember. I do remember a similar wrapped up clipper or two like this one in 2010...but this one is a bit of an odd duck really. The due S or even slight SSW jog before turning the corner is something I'm not sure I've seen before. Interesting. I wish there was a way to dig up an archive of storms with maps revealing how they took shape. I know history likes to repeat itself pertaining to weather overall (especially in the winter). Thanks for clarifying.
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mccarthb
Junior Forecaster
O'Fallon, MO - Outer Road near border of Dardenne Prarie
Posts: 443
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Post by mccarthb on Jan 13, 2022 14:26:25 GMT -6
By the time anyone gets up to measure it 6" will compact back to 4" there will be some quick settling and some melting from below too. Very "March" like system. You're probably right unless the pivot works out better for us which looks unlikely so far. When was the last time a storm like this occurred where a SE pivot swiveled NW for a wrap-around event in the metro?
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mccarthb
Junior Forecaster
O'Fallon, MO - Outer Road near border of Dardenne Prarie
Posts: 443
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Post by mccarthb on Jan 13, 2022 14:10:32 GMT -6
EC is a bit further W/SW than the GFS/NAM blend...split the middle and the Metro is sitting in a nice spot. 2-4" looks pretty solid...some areas might get closer to 6" if the Fgen band develops and parks itself. By the time anyone gets up to measure it 6" will compact back to 4" there will be some quick settling and some melting from below too. Very "March" like system. You should know that we don't sleep during storms like this when it whisks through in the middle of the night . Night Owl cameras pointing to a ruler in the ideal spot are helpful as well in case I do pass out (which tends to be occurring more frequently with age)
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mccarthb
Junior Forecaster
O'Fallon, MO - Outer Road near border of Dardenne Prarie
Posts: 443
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Post by mccarthb on Jan 13, 2022 0:46:30 GMT -6
Euro is showing some decent QPF, but it seems low ratios and possibly mixing at the onset keep snow totals in check Ugh, the word mix makes me cringe. Let’s just hope sleet isn’t a big factor.
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mccarthb
Junior Forecaster
O'Fallon, MO - Outer Road near border of Dardenne Prarie
Posts: 443
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Post by mccarthb on Jan 13, 2022 0:42:21 GMT -6
Great job with the post on FB, Chris. Turn off comments so people stop asking questions. Facebook is there for a reason. People will ask questions and it will be clarified. If Chris turns off comments, all that does is bring about more negativity. It’s great what Chris is doing spreading accurate predictions and questions should be welcomed
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mccarthb
Junior Forecaster
O'Fallon, MO - Outer Road near border of Dardenne Prarie
Posts: 443
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Post by mccarthb on Jan 12, 2022 18:02:53 GMT -6
Sounds like a good time to start a new thread. Fresh start. What do ya say Chris? 😊
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mccarthb
Junior Forecaster
O'Fallon, MO - Outer Road near border of Dardenne Prarie
Posts: 443
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Post by mccarthb on Jan 12, 2022 17:30:19 GMT -6
We have a 3 month old St. Bernard pup (certainly doesn’t look like a pup anymore) that has yet to witness snow on the ground let alone a flake fall from the sky. I know he’ll love it so I’m really hoping this pans out!
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mccarthb
Junior Forecaster
O'Fallon, MO - Outer Road near border of Dardenne Prarie
Posts: 443
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Post by mccarthb on Jan 12, 2022 10:33:47 GMT -6
We haven’t seen a storm similar to this in a while. But, I do recall a few winters (maybe 2010, 2011) where we had a pattern of clippers that liked to blend with a southern system like this and when initially sampled, always had a southern 50-100 mile bias until ~24 hours out. Then, just like clockwork, almost every model locked into a northern shift placing STL in the bullseye. This storm looks very reminiscent of a few I remember during that time ~10-12 years ago.
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mccarthb
Junior Forecaster
O'Fallon, MO - Outer Road near border of Dardenne Prarie
Posts: 443
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Post by mccarthb on Jan 10, 2022 15:45:00 GMT -6
Yea there has to be something with genetics and individual biology that just aren’t clear at this point. All I know is that I was pretty much unable to move due to the vomiting and extreme chills and body aches. By far the worst I’ve ever had. 33 years old, healthy other than being a bit overweight. Your blood type has a lot to do with how your body will react when catching COVID. Mortality rates significantly increase for those with blood type A. Blood types AB and B have found to develop symptoms however most non-severe. Type O has some sort of natural immunity to the symptoms of COVID. Most that catch it that are type O will be asymptomatic (but not all - Many other factors like pre-existing conditions/immunodeficiencies can spawn symptoms regardless).
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mccarthb
Junior Forecaster
O'Fallon, MO - Outer Road near border of Dardenne Prarie
Posts: 443
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Post by mccarthb on Jan 7, 2022 15:05:48 GMT -6
“I will NOT shave until we get a significant snow!!!” There's this ZZ Top tribute band....
Lol. I immediately thought of Zac Brown but that’s a good one too!
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mccarthb
Junior Forecaster
O'Fallon, MO - Outer Road near border of Dardenne Prarie
Posts: 443
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Post by mccarthb on Jan 7, 2022 10:21:50 GMT -6
Why Chris? What gets posted on this forum stays on this forum! It’s a pact we all have! Disregard, read your post too fast and thought you said “I have to pay close attention to what I have to say”. Which I know is also true for you unfortunately. And one last thing.. This is epic!
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