mccarthb
Junior Forecaster
O'Fallon, MO - Outer Road near border of Dardenne Prarie
Posts: 443
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Post by mccarthb on Feb 6, 2021 14:34:01 GMT -6
I’d be interested in some data on this. Do other cities like KC, Minneapolis, and Indianapolis also suffer from a DAM issue? The DAM is not a local phenomenon. It’s a problem anywhere that gets snow Except Buffalo
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mccarthb
Junior Forecaster
O'Fallon, MO - Outer Road near border of Dardenne Prarie
Posts: 443
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Post by mccarthb on Feb 6, 2021 14:33:06 GMT -6
Anyone in Warrenton that can provide a report? No snow yet here in Warrenton. I saw a few flakes on their modot cam out there. May want to recheck.
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mccarthb
Junior Forecaster
O'Fallon, MO - Outer Road near border of Dardenne Prarie
Posts: 443
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Post by mccarthb on Feb 6, 2021 14:32:24 GMT -6
Looks to be some strengthening out to our west. Good sign
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mccarthb
Junior Forecaster
O'Fallon, MO - Outer Road near border of Dardenne Prarie
Posts: 443
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Post by mccarthb on Feb 6, 2021 14:21:51 GMT -6
Anyone in Warrenton that can provide a report?
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mccarthb
Junior Forecaster
O'Fallon, MO - Outer Road near border of Dardenne Prarie
Posts: 443
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Post by mccarthb on Feb 5, 2021 11:44:52 GMT -6
This is pretty incredible That is nosesicle cold! In the past when we get that cold, we stay dry as a bone. Please let this time be different!
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mccarthb
Junior Forecaster
O'Fallon, MO - Outer Road near border of Dardenne Prarie
Posts: 443
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Post by mccarthb on Feb 5, 2021 0:28:01 GMT -6
So hard to keep up with u guys anymore. Lol I have to read thru a bunch of posts after I get off of work. So what are we looking at for the weekend? J/K. I'll start reading...🤪 Try looking at each model run and seeing all of them pull a 180, back and forth. Enough to give anyone a headache. It’s apparent there isn’t a single model that has a good handle on what will happen this weekend into Monday.
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mccarthb
Junior Forecaster
O'Fallon, MO - Outer Road near border of Dardenne Prarie
Posts: 443
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Post by mccarthb on Feb 4, 2021 15:20:14 GMT -6
Changeover to snow in O’Fallon. Too bad it won’t last very long. Some big flakes mixed in with the salt shaker.
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mccarthb
Junior Forecaster
O'Fallon, MO - Outer Road near border of Dardenne Prarie
Posts: 443
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Post by mccarthb on Feb 4, 2021 12:29:16 GMT -6
You think there will be enough cold air aloft? Yes. The surface, on the other hand...probably won't see much if any accums although NWS shows a trace IMBY forecast. No biggie...just more air snow. Could be some slick spots in sheltered areas overnight if they don't dry out. It definitely feels colder outside right now than it really is
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mccarthb
Junior Forecaster
O'Fallon, MO - Outer Road near border of Dardenne Prarie
Posts: 443
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Post by mccarthb on Feb 4, 2021 12:23:57 GMT -6
Models seem to be trending toward the nam. Euro is better i see the split but its getting better. I am still mostly interested in Monday. I feel this weekend could be one when north half of metro such as my area is stuck in the teens, where south side near arnold is 40. It is a very tight zone. Never fails. There’s always that cutoff smack dab in the metro. I-70 is cursed.
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mccarthb
Junior Forecaster
O'Fallon, MO - Outer Road near border of Dardenne Prarie
Posts: 443
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Post by mccarthb on Feb 4, 2021 12:11:27 GMT -6
Radar looks good for a band of wet snow to move in later this afternoon along and N of 70. You think there will be enough cold air aloft?
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mccarthb
Junior Forecaster
O'Fallon, MO - Outer Road near border of Dardenne Prarie
Posts: 443
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Post by mccarthb on Feb 4, 2021 11:45:18 GMT -6
Can we at least have one storm this year that’s worthy of breaking out the Frivometer?
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mccarthb
Junior Forecaster
O'Fallon, MO - Outer Road near border of Dardenne Prarie
Posts: 443
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Post by mccarthb on Feb 3, 2021 21:34:18 GMT -6
I’ve never seen so much confusion and discrepancy with the model outputs for a storm. I feel sorry for Chris having to televise his educated guess with little to no model consistency.
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mccarthb
Junior Forecaster
O'Fallon, MO - Outer Road near border of Dardenne Prarie
Posts: 443
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Post by mccarthb on Feb 2, 2021 22:30:15 GMT -6
ICON is a massive bullseye! GFS isn’t close but it’s also solid! Are my eyes playing tricks or am I seeing the ICON dropping a foot to the entire metro Saturday into Sunday?
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mccarthb
Junior Forecaster
O'Fallon, MO - Outer Road near border of Dardenne Prarie
Posts: 443
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Post by mccarthb on Feb 2, 2021 13:28:00 GMT -6
The GFSv16 and Euro seem to have the most realistic outcome for this weekend and potential for next week. The GEM has been all over the place and UKMET looks a bit overdone.
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mccarthb
Junior Forecaster
O'Fallon, MO - Outer Road near border of Dardenne Prarie
Posts: 443
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Post by mccarthb on Jan 31, 2021 23:52:25 GMT -6
This is model worshiping at its finest lol. But it’s about time we have a potential good one brewing. I’m knocking on wood, no worries.
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mccarthb
Junior Forecaster
O'Fallon, MO - Outer Road near border of Dardenne Prarie
Posts: 443
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Post by mccarthb on Jan 31, 2021 23:48:24 GMT -6
I used to use the nws radar...but how can I say this diplomatically...it now sucks. sorry mods if I have to go to the penalty box... MyRadar Pro is pretty badass if you’re looking for one that does the job. I think it’s like $5 for the app. No subscription required.
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mccarthb
Junior Forecaster
O'Fallon, MO - Outer Road near border of Dardenne Prarie
Posts: 443
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Post by mccarthb on Jan 31, 2021 23:45:33 GMT -6
Just curious... What do you all use as your handy weather radar? I assume you all use an app. I use MyRadar Pro and I think it’s great. But if there are better ones out there, I’m curious what you all use. Radarscope. Nothing else is even close but it isn't free. I think it is $10 but the Pro version is a yearly fee I believe. Thank you! I’ll have to look into that.
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mccarthb
Junior Forecaster
O'Fallon, MO - Outer Road near border of Dardenne Prarie
Posts: 443
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Post by mccarthb on Jan 31, 2021 19:43:06 GMT -6
Just curious... What do you all use as your handy weather radar? I assume you all use an app. I use MyRadar Pro and I think it’s great. But if there are better ones out there, I’m curious what you all use.
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mccarthb
Junior Forecaster
O'Fallon, MO - Outer Road near border of Dardenne Prarie
Posts: 443
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Post by mccarthb on Jan 31, 2021 19:39:22 GMT -6
Not a peep about the watcher this weekend on either afternoon AFD. I wouldn’t want to touch it either. Too far out to mention it. If things are still on course by Tuesday, I’m sure the buzz will begin.
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mccarthb
Junior Forecaster
O'Fallon, MO - Outer Road near border of Dardenne Prarie
Posts: 443
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Post by mccarthb on Jan 31, 2021 18:22:34 GMT -6
Hey buddy. Sorry I didn’t see your response until now. Yeah, our neighborhood and the hills are a nuisance for sure lol. We have a hill in our backyard that almost kills me every time I mow back there lol. Which village are you in again? Our house is the 6th home up Little Oaks on the right. Just past the dip. Couldn’t agree more with your analysis by the way. Should be interesting to see how this plays out and I just hope to god the cold air doesn’t disappoint for once lol. We should grab a beer sometime. Chris has family here so maybe we can get him to tag along as well when he’s in the neighborhood. don't get me wrong. I love hills. it's just that the slope combined with the southern facing yard, just allows my snow to melt a lot faster in my yard than my neighbors. I'm in The Cedars, and my house backs up to property on Thorn Hill. I got a Solo Bonfire for Christmas. I ordered the stand for it this week, and it should be here in a month or so, so I'll probably use it a lot this Spring and drink through my yueng lengs that i stocked up on in November. That would be great if Chris can tag a long. Msnotos lives 10 minutes away, so she will want to be here to talk to him as well. She doesn't post a lot but does read this forum. lol As for mowing, it's getting harder and harder as I have a walkout basement which means a pretty good hill on the side that I have to conquer when I mow. I thought about getting a riding mower lol. Fortunately I have woods that cover about half my back yard, and I typically just mow that section once. I got rid of the overgrowth in the woods once, and it caused a lot of runoff into my neighbors yard. They were nice about it, but i decided I wasn't going to do much more with the woods until I figure out a way to minimize the runoff. I hope you are enjoying your house. Been a few years since I've been to the pool. BTW, light snow still falling...no accumulation. “Slopes” would probably be the better choice of word to describe the landscape here lol. Not a big fan of the sludgy clay out here when the ground gets wet. I hear it’s due to topsoil removal when this neighborhood was built. Beyond our fence line however, there’s some nice unincorporated land that would be absolutely perfect for sledding. So if next weekend pans out, I’m down for breaking out the kid in me, putting some griswald grease on a trash lid and going to town! So you’re always welcome my friend (or anyone else). I always keep a nice stock of brews in our garage fridge to keep warm. Good beers though, not the 2% abv Mic Ultras (No offense Chris lol). And I’m always down for chilling by a bonfire! You just let me know. I know a few people that live in The Cedars so I have a good idea given your description where you’re at. I visited the pool once in 2020. Just didn’t feel comfortable enough with the covid crap. We took full advantage of it in 2019 though. If you go and I’m there, I’m usually at that rowdy table. I have a few neighbors that like to have a good time lol.
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mccarthb
Junior Forecaster
O'Fallon, MO - Outer Road near border of Dardenne Prarie
Posts: 443
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Post by mccarthb on Jan 31, 2021 14:32:28 GMT -6
Still too far out for the models to predict how this is going to play out. One thing’s for sure, there’s a whopper brewing and it’s going to produce quite the storm somewhere in the Midwest. No way this somehow vanishes like a fart in the wind. What’s printing on these models is a sure sign something big is coming. Where exactly and how much is a mystery now but I like what I see. This has all the makings of winter precip. GFS seems to have the most consistent handle on this storm. We can’t bank on those slight shifts this far out. I usually stay quiet because I’m ignorant compared to the geniuses on this board but I had to throw my 2 cents looking at the eye candy extended range models these last few days. howdy neighbor. I sort of have the same feeling as you. Not a genius here either but years of wisdom lends me to believe that these synoptic setups often bring us light wind blown snow with the initial assault. I'd like to see a little bit more of a westerly penetration of cold air to our west to feel a little more secure, but what I see is a tendency for the models to erode the cold air rather quickly. If we had the cold air centered just a bit further west, that's when I watch for storm systems to develop in a time that the cold air erodes - already seeing this with a dixie system bringing snow as far north as CGI on Sunday the 7th of February. That is the kind of system, IMO, for something big to brew and by that I mean a warning level snow. As Chris pointed out in the past, we typically get our biggest snows from two phases: the waa phase, and then the upper low. So while I have guarded interest for late week system for some light icing and light snow, the big news is likely to be the cold, and it could set the table for future systems. The other school of thought is that the cold will be short lived due to the never ending onslaught of pacific air scrubbing it out; but this is the deepest cold we've seen all winter, so fingers crossed. BTW, don't know if you know where I live, but it's laughable that my front yard is typically void of snow a day or so after these snows hit due to the slight slope and southward facing lawn...while all my neighbors still have several inches of snow in their yard. Hey buddy. Sorry I didn’t see your response until now. Yeah, our neighborhood and the hills are a nuisance for sure lol. We have a hill in our backyard that almost kills me every time I mow back there lol. Which village are you in again? Our house is the 6th home up Little Oaks on the right. Just past the dip. Couldn’t agree more with your analysis by the way. Should be interesting to see how this plays out and I just hope to god the cold air doesn’t disappoint for once lol. We should grab a beer sometime. Chris has family here so maybe we can get him to tag along as well when he’s in the neighborhood.
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mccarthb
Junior Forecaster
O'Fallon, MO - Outer Road near border of Dardenne Prarie
Posts: 443
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Post by mccarthb on Jan 31, 2021 14:19:45 GMT -6
We’re all good. Storm to our SE with big arctic air coming in 6 days out. History is on our side in these setups. Exactly. I much prefer our chances of a southern track and a potential shift to the north. History has shown our chances are much better with this setup as you mentioned. Correct me if I’m wrong but when we see the track missing us to the north, we hardly ever see it trend in our favor.
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mccarthb
Junior Forecaster
O'Fallon, MO - Outer Road near border of Dardenne Prarie
Posts: 443
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Post by mccarthb on Jan 31, 2021 2:21:53 GMT -6
Still too far out for the models to predict how this is going to play out. One thing’s for sure, there’s a whopper brewing and it’s going to produce quite the storm somewhere in the Midwest. No way this somehow vanishes like a fart in the wind. What’s printing on these models is a sure sign something big is coming. Where exactly and how much is a mystery now but I like what I see. This has all the makings of winter precip. GFS seems to have the most consistent handle on this storm. We can’t bank on those slight shifts this far out. I usually stay quiet because I’m ignorant compared to the geniuses on this board but I had to throw my 2 cents looking at the eye candy extended range models these last few days.
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mccarthb
Junior Forecaster
O'Fallon, MO - Outer Road near border of Dardenne Prarie
Posts: 443
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Post by mccarthb on Jan 27, 2021 10:30:37 GMT -6
Flat out ripping in O’Fallon
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mccarthb
Junior Forecaster
O'Fallon, MO - Outer Road near border of Dardenne Prarie
Posts: 443
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Post by mccarthb on Dec 30, 2020 11:45:36 GMT -6
Snow in O’Fallon near Dardenne.
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mccarthb
Junior Forecaster
O'Fallon, MO - Outer Road near border of Dardenne Prarie
Posts: 443
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Post by mccarthb on Dec 21, 2020 18:40:24 GMT -6
It was difficult to view without the advantage of our 2nd floor and even then, a very narrow line sight. Keeping hands still for the shot is no easy feat either. Lol
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mccarthb
Junior Forecaster
O'Fallon, MO - Outer Road near border of Dardenne Prarie
Posts: 443
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Post by mccarthb on Dec 21, 2020 18:20:20 GMT -6
Captured a lucky snap of the Christmas Star outside our bedroom window. I’m sure there will be far more superior pics than mine but thought I’d share. 😊
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mccarthb
Junior Forecaster
O'Fallon, MO - Outer Road near border of Dardenne Prarie
Posts: 443
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Post by mccarthb on Feb 20, 2020 9:50:22 GMT -6
New page before next weeks snowstorm, yes? Hmmm... but I like nostalgia. A good ole book. And old painting, old homes. Isn't that called character Have you turned into Bob Ross? LOL!
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mccarthb
Junior Forecaster
O'Fallon, MO - Outer Road near border of Dardenne Prarie
Posts: 443
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Post by mccarthb on Feb 12, 2020 22:06:26 GMT -6
Also a wind damage report that homes and business are completely destroyed. Must be a snowado. Only explanation lol I think it has something to do with one of the recent reports:
'negatively tilted 990mb Memphis low with a 1040mb high'
Only explanation..
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mccarthb
Junior Forecaster
O'Fallon, MO - Outer Road near border of Dardenne Prarie
Posts: 443
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Post by mccarthb on Feb 12, 2020 19:27:01 GMT -6
Flakes mixing in O’Fallon, MO
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