|
Post by ndolan387 on Jan 22, 2024 9:50:09 GMT -6
Very small efficient droplets. I have a good coating of ice! 31* here too in Northern Wildwood.
|
|
|
Post by ndolan387 on Jan 22, 2024 8:58:35 GMT -6
Took the dog out. Driveway and elevated surfaces are very icy of course. Even the grass is icy and slick. Looks like the sides on the roads or where heavier precip knocked off chemicals and then it refroze is an issue. Out WNW, I-70 and other roads are a mess! The warmer raindrops and the urban heat island helped for less problems on the big roads in the immediate STL metro (even more so near and in the city).
|
|
|
Post by ndolan387 on Jan 21, 2024 23:47:27 GMT -6
Tds are very slowly but surely rising! 28* in Northern Wildwood.
|
|
|
Post by ndolan387 on Jan 21, 2024 23:32:41 GMT -6
HRRR and RAP seem to have initialized current precip pattern pretty well and their latest updates have a pretty reasonable look through midday tomorrow. This fortunately matches the going forecast so no need to make any adjustments. I really think our issues will be in the morning up through early afternoon. I really expect warm drops, latent heat release and an increase in precip rates to clear things up quickly starting not long after lunch. The exceptions may be where cold air is trapped in the valleys of the eastern Ozarks in SEMO and northeast of STL where low level dry air advection from the southeast may keep evap cooling going longer into the afternoon. Steady as she goes!
|
|
|
Post by ndolan387 on Jan 21, 2024 18:51:14 GMT -6
I guess it’s just par for the course that this storm spotted several days ago to have ice, stayed ice. That if this was snow spotted a few days ago, it would’ve already turned the rain, or cut north leaving us dry. I do wish the ice would stay away though. Haha! Now we have to see what happens. Everyone stay safe out there after 12am tonight!
|
|
|
Post by ndolan387 on Jan 21, 2024 18:27:51 GMT -6
Looks like Central and South Central Illinois is the prime zone for the most icing. Those >0.25" outputs seem more possible NE of the STL metro! Made it to 32* at KSUS (barely) and KSTL. A little colder than I thought. Basically all the day below freezing! Also, if you go step on the ground it's hard as a rock. It's an ice box. The period of sleet at the onset. The first 2-3 hrs maybe more, the rain drops (the freezing drizzle and freezing rain) will all go toward freezing on the surface and none of the moisture will get absorbed into the ground. Eventually some of the drops will absorb into the ground. yes, how ever the impact of .25>.5 is very different when sleet makes the ground cold compared to tree limbs falling. still high impact but manageable still. I think the period of sleet at the onset is going to make this a high impact storm! Ice isn't manageable. Regardless of 0.1" or 0.20", etc. Any amount of ice is dangerous! You always want to be safe rather than sorry with ice!
|
|
|
Post by ndolan387 on Jan 21, 2024 18:16:03 GMT -6
Looks like Central and South Central Illinois is the prime zone for the most icing. Those >0.25" outputs seem more possible NE of the STL metro! Made it to 32* at KSUS (barely) and KSTL. A little colder than I thought. Basically all the day below freezing! Also, if you go step on the ground it's hard as a rock. It's an ice box. The period of sleet at the onset will happen. The first 2-3 hrs maybe more, the rain drops (the freezing drizzle and freezing rain) will all go toward freezing on the surface and none of the moisture will get absorbed into the ground. Eventually the drops will absorb into the ground as they get bigger and warmer! Overtime, the more that happens then our ice accretion will stop (no more ice build up) later Mon!
|
|
|
Post by ndolan387 on Jan 21, 2024 7:27:26 GMT -6
Supposed to get to 32*-34* and the sun will be out with increasing coulds. Winds gusting to 20-25mph out of the S. This will try to warm up some areas relatively speaking. Wouldn’t be surprised if we pop up above freezing today even with increasing clouds. The sun angle still doesn't hit a lot of areas in Jan. The warm air advection was underestimated on Wed. It won't matter in the big picture bc the ground is an icebox. NWS point forecast is conservative with the ice saying we switch to all rain after 10am. We all know switching to all rain is a slow and painful process. It doesn't happen quickly with very cold ground temps and low Tds like Chris and others have mentioned. Freezing rain likes to hang on longer at least climatology speaking. Winter Weather Advisory is up for up to 0.1" of ice which cardsnweather already posted. I think some areas will get more than 0.1" of glazing.
|
|
|
Post by ndolan387 on Jan 20, 2024 22:11:13 GMT -6
After the warmup next week, all teleconnections are screaming normal weather for the next 2 weeks or so. It does look like all ensembles attempt to re-establish the ridge over AK, but all fail to do so. That’s a change from earlier this week where that was actually achieved. That said, it can obviously change. AO is trending neutral, as well as NAO and PNA. MJO is moving into neutral territory as well but exiting neutral in Phase 8, which is a cold phase for us. Fingers crossed! Dave Murray is thinking a see saw pattern for 2-3 weeks which would then avg to normal weather. Chris would call it a dipsee doodle weather pattern. It's hard to stay zonal for 2 weeks in the winter at 38-40* ish N latitude. I think Dave may be right. He's the long range veteran.
|
|
|
Post by ndolan387 on Jan 20, 2024 22:07:35 GMT -6
Yeah 00z NAM would support sleet at the very beginning IMO before going to freezing drizzle or light freezing rain. The lower precip amounts (freezing drizzle) on the front end of the precip is going to lead to good ice accretion quickly with the very cold ground temps. Especially since it will be dark outside! All the points that Chris, coz, Btrn, Tilawn, myself, etc. were talking about.
|
|
|
Post by ndolan387 on Jan 20, 2024 19:43:39 GMT -6
00z NAM is about to come out! Drum roll. Is it going to be extra icy or dry as a bone? Flip a coin lol. Though seriously Mon morning is looking very icy!
|
|
|
Post by ndolan387 on Jan 20, 2024 9:19:41 GMT -6
Models seem like they are hanging onto the cold air longer. 12z HRRR looks icy with freezing drizzle starting after 12am Mon.
|
|
|
Post by ndolan387 on Jan 20, 2024 9:16:45 GMT -6
Yeah it has a freezing drizzle/light freezing rain look! Better ice accretion. Falling on deep frozen ground. I don’t see even if temps get above freezing that icing at ground level won’t still be an issue for several hours, especially if the rate of precipitation is light and not warm rain drops. I agree, freezing rain is the one thing you don't ever want to downplay! Yeah smaller drops will keep the ground colder longer. Start time on Mon is crucial. If precip starts overnight after 12am Mon then it's going to be even more icy. If precip holds off till late morning Mon then less ice.
|
|
|
Post by ndolan387 on Jan 19, 2024 22:40:58 GMT -6
NAM would be a mess into the afternoon on Monday Yeah it has a freezing drizzle/light freezing rain look! Better ice accretion.
|
|
|
Post by ndolan387 on Jan 19, 2024 22:38:41 GMT -6
Interesting plume of clouds and even very light radar returns that has its origins from the Callaway nuclear plant. Also, I noticed this evening after sunset before it got dark the Labadie smoke/steam stacks had formed clouds in the air!
|
|
|
Post by ndolan387 on Jan 19, 2024 21:54:26 GMT -6
I know some on here don't truly believe in the LRC. I don't follow it anymore. His website changed and it turned me away. I think some of his points though are valid! We all know long range forecasts are a big gamble.
|
|
|
Post by ndolan387 on Jan 19, 2024 21:27:16 GMT -6
The upcoming pattern looks similar to what we had in December Looks like winter is going back in hiding for much of the US Eh, I don’t think it will be as “torchy” as December. Maybe down this way, but I think crazy warmth will stay mainly south of I-80 for the most part. I say that, but the most ugly part of the warmth will be the overnight temps. Overnight melting absolutely zaps a snowpack. Not much of a diurnal swing the next week. Similar, but different pattern based upon the change in seasons. Dec is different than late Jan for STL climatology speaking. As Gary Lezak (LRC) likes to mention.
|
|
|
Post by ndolan387 on Jan 19, 2024 20:47:37 GMT -6
The upcoming pattern looks similar to what we had in December Looks like winter is going back in hiding for much of the US If you believe in the LRC then yeah the upcoming pattern will be a similar but different pattern than we had earlier in Dec. Hoping we get a rare zonal system or a sneaky clipper. That would make the break in winter weather feel less long. I am looking actually forward to a little break from following 1 inch snow systems!
|
|
|
Post by ndolan387 on Jan 19, 2024 0:03:06 GMT -6
Yes this wave looks healthier now and the snow extends further west so most will get in on the fun hopefully!
|
|
|
Post by ndolan387 on Jan 18, 2024 23:33:33 GMT -6
The snow has let up with tge initial surge, but there is sneaky snow dropping in from the north that may actually prove more troublesome because it will come with a more significant temp drop. The mositure is also located low in the profile... within a favorable DGZ that extends down to near ground level which will make visualizing it on radar difficult until it gets closer because the beam will actually overshoot tge snow formation in the low levels. Roads may get slick quickly with rhis next batch. Yeah the developing next snow wave Glenn showed on air. Agreed, any left over moisture will freeze with snow mixed in...roads could stay slick even by the morning rush. Interesting obs with the dendrite growth zone and radar beam. Hopefully it extends a little further west than what it's showing.
|
|
|
Post by ndolan387 on Jan 18, 2024 22:30:31 GMT -6
That mesoscale band that just went over the MO river just weakened over western STL county lol! So I missed out some in Northern Wildwood. As well, it's trajectory was more east and southeast. East of Chesterfield and north of Ladue in STL county was/is seeing moderate snow "now."
|
|
|
Post by ndolan387 on Jan 18, 2024 21:56:10 GMT -6
Snow! Heavier (20-30 ish) dbz snow is about to go over the MO river! Delayed, but not denied! It would've been nice to see the bonus snow this am that Chris mentioned last night, but virga city. I'll be happy with 0.5" out of this system.
|
|
|
Post by ndolan387 on Jan 17, 2024 23:34:46 GMT -6
Looking at the morning rush time... the IBM model in house is now generating a tiny band of snow over the metro for about 90 minutes. I'll show it on the 11pm news. I'm not sure I buy it though because all these models that are showing that band have it snowing in western Missouri right now... and there are no reports confirming any snow anywhere near KC right now... just lots of virga. The FV3 High Res agrees too. I hope it snows for you Chris instead of just virga.
|
|
|
Post by ndolan387 on Jan 17, 2024 22:40:06 GMT -6
I dont buy an ice storm with a southerly flow around here Thats how we get the infamous 32* "ice storms" Very true but ground temps are going to be very cold when the precipitation starts after 12am Sun (possibly earlier) so I think we will see at least some freezing rain. If the rain drops are less than 5 mm in diameter...look out! Freezing drizzle. Better ice accretion (as Chris hinted at). The Arctic air retreated fast today with the WAA underestimated today if that's a sign/theme for Sun/Mon or this winter. It's a gamble to know how fast the Arctic air retreats! It's been the opposite many times before. You beat me Chris!
|
|
|
Post by ndolan387 on Jan 17, 2024 20:57:00 GMT -6
Some recycled and new thoughts:
***11th Update on SW Influence/FGEN Snow System 01-18-24 to 01-19-24 looks like Maybe a Dusting Now + Another Arctic Blast / Sleet to Freezing Rain to Rain System 01-21-24 to 01-22-24 -> Warmer Unsettled Pattern Change***
Popped to 40* or low 40s today! The SW (Warm Air Advection) was underestimated! Nice to have the sun all day again!
Tomorrow's system looks even less impressive. Light snow could break out after 6pm, but there's not much moisture. As well, dry air is going to eat into our possible snow. Look for a possible dusting up to 0.5" (maybe that's too much). More further north and west! Though, some may not see any snow in the STL metro! The focus is another arctic blast! This won't be nearly as bad as our recent record arctic airmass where we saw 72 hrs of sub zero wind chills at KSTL (Lambert Airport) beating the previous record from 1962. Therefore, this has never happened in recorded history. Some areas had more than 72 hrs of below zero wind chills too!
The warmest part of tomorrow will be at 3pm (37-39*) which is typical in mid January. Temps will be dropping tomorrow evening along with the possible FGEN (temp gradient driven light snow) once again as NW winds start bring cold air advection into our Region! Lows will bottom out in 5-8* range Friday am around/just after sunrise! Windchills as cold as -15* to -20* as peak wind gusts will be around 30-32 mph! Highs will struggle to reach 13-15*. Wind chills below zero all day! It will bottom out at around 0* to 4* Sat at sunrise and highs will be 14* to 18* Sat. Windchills around -10* to -15* early Sat to just below/around/above 0* during the day. At least NW wind gusts will be 20 mph or less Sat. Then down to 4 to 8* by Sun am at sunrise.
Temperatures will warm up Sun into the 20s. Though the question is how much will they warm ahead and during our next system? The location of the cold high pressure is crucial to what precip type we see after 12am Sunday. Climatology would tell us that the models are underestimating the strength of this next arctic airmass. How fast the arctic air retreats and warm air advection comes into our Region after precipitation bubbles up from the WSW? No one or one model knows right now! Either way maybe sleet to freezing rain to rain looks likely! Looks like an freezing rain and rain!
It's a gamble to honestly know when ice accretion stops on surface! Also if precipitation rates are slower at first after 12am Sun and the diamater of the raindrop goes below 5 mm then we could be looking at a period of freezing drizzle before it turns into freezing rain to rain sometime Mon. Ice accumulates efficiently when the diameter of the rain drop is a little smaller and grounds are very cold which they will be late Sun into Mon. I think right now, freezing rain could make roads slick until late morning Mon. This could become sooner or extend later as we lean more about the strength of this next arctic airmass. One thing we all know too well is the streets have so many chemicals on them, but they will all get an atmosphere car cash next week with the rain and a warmer pattern change!
|
|
|
Post by ndolan387 on Jan 17, 2024 10:10:17 GMT -6
My gut is telling me that we will see a big storm 6+ in either mid/late Feb or March! Lots of choices lol. Palm Sunday Storm 2.0 (March 24, 2013) would be nice. I had 14" IMBY. My gut is also telling me that we won't see a big storm this year too. Might want to go see a doctor as it seems your gut is conflicted. Lol. I haven’t looked at any runs later than this morning, but I really like the look of the GFS going into February. The more east based cold should give better chances at over running precip setups. Haha! Oh and Palm Sunday is on March 24 (this year too). It would be a fitting pipe dream.
|
|
|
Post by ndolan387 on Jan 16, 2024 23:04:18 GMT -6
New record set in St. Louis for longest stretch of sub zero wind chill temperatures at 71 hours! Old record was 70 hours in January of 1962. Amazing, more extreme than forecasted! This reminds us how hard it's to forecast temperatures, windchills in the winter and of course winter precipitation.
|
|
|
Post by ndolan387 on Jan 16, 2024 20:53:23 GMT -6
My gut is telling me that we will see a big storm 6+ in either mid/late Feb or March! Lots of choices lol. Palm Sunday Storm 2.0 (March 24, 2013) would be nice. I had 14" IMBY. My gut is also telling me that we won't see a big storm this year too.
|
|
|
Post by ndolan387 on Jan 16, 2024 20:48:46 GMT -6
HRRR says what FGEN band after 12am Wednesday! It's over 100ish+ mi from the metro. The other models say the same thing. We get some potential snow after 6pm Thursday (what tedrick65 said)! Looking like 1" at best when it's done. Brtn said we could just use a 0-2" snow forecast for each future storm and he's right lol!
|
|
|
Post by ndolan387 on Jan 15, 2024 21:30:00 GMT -6
|
|