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Post by ndolan387 on Nov 29, 2020 10:06:46 GMT -6
Euro ensembles are really far west with the mid-week system, favoring central Kansas for most snowfall Nice, lets meet in the middle...central and east central MO.
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Post by ndolan387 on Nov 29, 2020 8:45:07 GMT -6
12z and 13z HRRR isn't too jazzed about tonight for snow, but still think the immediate metro east will see some snow fly. 12z HRRR says Mississippi River Enchancement snow will be possible tomorrow after afternoon especially on the eastern side of the metro. Yay
Meanwhile 12z NAM has the frontogenesis band this evening...almost parallel to I-44, but a more south/north axis than I-44 through the immediate metro east. I'd like for dewpoints to be lower though to cool the column quicker when the cloud deck lowers and when precip does break out.
I haven't looked at wet bulb temperatures so maybe we are in better shape.
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Post by ndolan387 on Nov 29, 2020 7:28:46 GMT -6
Yep next week system has officially cloaked... Will it come back? Most likely no. In fact models say no snow for you through December or hardly anything for that matter. December does indeed look very dry. Understandable as November especially early to mid month was quite wet. Thinks may pick up again after the holidays. Snow will be flying for the immediate metro east into your neck of the woods tonight into early tomorrow I think. It won't be much, but we will see snow. As for the mid week system, it always looked odd. Also, I'm confident we will see more chances for snow before the Holidays. Possibly a clipper in this troughy NW flow. There's no reason to write off our snow chances in Dec when it's Nov 28th.
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Post by ndolan387 on Nov 28, 2020 21:36:18 GMT -6
00z HRRR is picking up on that frontogenesis band Btrn is talking about tomorrow night up I-44 in the metro. But, unfortunately the HRRR it's awfully warm upper 30s (too warm I think) when the most of the precip comes through.
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Post by ndolan387 on Nov 27, 2020 22:59:25 GMT -6
00z GEM holds course and looks decent late week, but borderline temps.
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Post by ndolan387 on Nov 27, 2020 22:05:20 GMT -6
What's going on with the 00z NAM run? I'm getting it fine on COD... something wrong with what it's printing out... or? Tropical Tibits hasn't uploaded yet. Good to know that your getting it on College of DuPage. Otherwise, thanks for your analysis with this run
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Post by ndolan387 on Nov 27, 2020 21:38:14 GMT -6
What's going on with the 00z NAM run?
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Post by ndolan387 on Nov 27, 2020 12:57:01 GMT -6
The 12z GEM had CAA snow on the backside of the wound up system for Fri-Sat next week. Yes the GEM typically has a cold bias, but that's the cold air mass we need in order for it to change to snow.
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Post by ndolan387 on Nov 27, 2020 11:22:19 GMT -6
I’d say Wed/Thurs has some potential. Most models showing another lobe of arctic air coming into it. Watch this one cut to our NW lol. If not, I think the pattern stays active for us to see some snow before mid Dec. Some were already writing off the first 15 days of Dec for winter weather 1-2 weeks ago. I think the pattern looks decent for our Dec standards at least. Many years we open Dec with 50+ degree temps.
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Post by ndolan387 on Nov 27, 2020 11:17:36 GMT -6
If it becomes that cut off and wrapped up, we'd have to be under the cold core for snowfall. So true
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Post by ndolan387 on Nov 27, 2020 10:27:12 GMT -6
The potential system later next week sure is an interesting setup Yes! Though, I'm concerned about cold air supply especially if your wanting snow
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Post by ndolan387 on Nov 25, 2020 13:33:14 GMT -6
Any chance we get any mood snow out of this thing this weekend? Flakes flying will up the spirits around here. Like Chris already mentioned early this morning, I do think some flurries/light snow is possible for Monday.
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Post by ndolan387 on Nov 24, 2020 22:44:25 GMT -6
One thing is certain regarding snow next week, but not certain for us of course lol. Lake Effect snow is really going to kick into gear next week.
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Post by ndolan387 on Nov 18, 2020 19:20:05 GMT -6
The 18z GFS sure is fun to look at! I think we could see mood flakes fly faster than we think. Knock on wood.
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Post by ndolan387 on Nov 18, 2020 18:15:54 GMT -6
There is a wind advisory for tomorrow. Relative humidity should be > 40% and since things aren't terribly dry around here I don't think we'll have to worry about fires like they are in KS and western MO. Dew points in the 30s, relative humidity 35-40% with 40-45 mph gusts...open fields do look to potentially have a fire danger.
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Post by ndolan387 on Nov 14, 2020 20:20:05 GMT -6
Tornado warned cell in Phelps County. What's everyone thoughts?
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Post by ndolan387 on Nov 13, 2020 23:18:19 GMT -6
Yeah the end of next weekend and the week of Thanksgiving looks interesting. Possibly our first dendrites of the season.
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Post by ndolan387 on Nov 12, 2020 19:41:35 GMT -6
This may of already been mentioned. 1999-2000 and 2004-2005 are possible analogs for this coming winter. 1999-2000's snowfall was above normal at 25.7". 2004-2005's snowfall was a little below normal at 14.8". I took the average of those two for fun and it's 20.25". Besides 2018-2019 that would be the highest snowfall for the winter season since 2013-2014 (where we had 27.2"). That was a snowy period because the year before in 2012-2013 we had a whopping 31.4"! Yea, Mother Nature threw us a bit of a bone there after having to endure the summer of 2012 aka the blast furnace from hades. True that winter was nice relief. That was a terrible summer. I remember 8 consecutive days of 102-108 air temp, 120ish heat index! The hottest stretch in terms of quantity that I can remember in my life.
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Post by ndolan387 on Nov 12, 2020 19:33:48 GMT -6
Yea, Mother Nature threw us a bit of a bone there after having to endure the summer of 2012 aka the blast furnace from hades. I'll never forget 3 thundersnow events in 30 days back in 2013. That was a bookmark winter for me. The good ole days
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Post by ndolan387 on Nov 12, 2020 15:44:53 GMT -6
This may of already been mentioned. 1999-2000 and 2004-2005 are possible analogs for this coming winter. 1999-2000's snowfall was above normal at 25.7". 2004-2005's snowfall was a little below normal at 14.8". I took the average of those two for fun and it's 20.25". Besides 2018-2019 that would be the highest snowfall for the winter season since 2013-2014 (where we had 27.2"). That was a snowy period because the year before in 2012-2013 we had a whopping 31.4"!
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Post by ndolan387 on Nov 11, 2020 20:26:40 GMT -6
Too early and it doesn't look that impressive right now thanks to it being 2 wks out. Though, something could be brewing the Thanksgiving ish time frame?
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Post by ndolan387 on Nov 11, 2020 10:26:45 GMT -6
Really no cold air or interesting weather in sight. Looks like another big warm up starting in a week It's nice to have "normal" conditions for awhile. The chill right now is my favorite for running, but not as much for road cycling (the past 8 days was perfect for road cycling)! Right now it's cold enough to feel like Nov, but not cold enough where it's hard for your body to keep warm.
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Post by ndolan387 on Nov 9, 2020 18:42:43 GMT -6
It looks like we tied the record of 78 today from 1975.
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Post by ndolan387 on Nov 2, 2020 9:48:07 GMT -6
Happy Birthday Chris!!!
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Post by ndolan387 on Nov 1, 2020 19:24:47 GMT -6
I'm tried of seeing cutter storms where we are SE of the low pressure on the models. I'm ready for some clippers too!
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Post by ndolan387 on Nov 1, 2020 19:10:42 GMT -6
12z euro is far less interesting so that is less fun I don't expect we'll see anymore runs like that 12z GFS for this particular event. 3 of the 20 GEFS members resemble something like it. but everything else is no where near the track or intensity. Yeah that's a textbook pipe dream scenario to file away haha!
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Post by ndolan387 on Oct 30, 2020 20:40:13 GMT -6
I think the moderate drought is over with now 😊. I'm excited for these sunny dry days ahead! Whatever fall color is left we will get to enjoy more with the sunlight hitting the trees.
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Post by ndolan387 on Oct 28, 2020 19:57:01 GMT -6
No worries...most people when they forecast a winter they would use a range of 16-25" anyway. 😊 Sounds good to me...we'll call it an even 20" and go from there Yep that does sounds good. Haha yeah I'll take an even snowfall of 20" any winter!
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Post by ndolan387 on Oct 28, 2020 19:49:07 GMT -6
Thanks! Good to know...all it takes is one big snowstorm to get within 25". I edited my post...I was thinking of 94/95 which beaker had corrected me on in a previous post. No worries...most people when they forecast a winter snowfall they would use a range of 16-25" anyway. 😊
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Post by ndolan387 on Oct 28, 2020 19:28:05 GMT -6
Given the mean trof position centered over the upper OHV and NE, that would have put us on the edge of the clipper train and solidly within cold airmasses. I believe there was a significant snowstorm in Feb '96 as well as a sub-zero arctic outbreak. I believe KSTL tallied 25" of snowfall for the year...so it was fairly snowy. Thanks! Good to know...all it takes is one big snowstorm to get within 25".
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