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Post by ndolan387 on Oct 26, 2020 11:48:55 GMT -6
I was totally wrong about OKC's ice storm. It looks bad, much worse than "ours" this past winter (1-17-20 and 1-18-20) vs. theirs now in late October. Wow, this is crazy!
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Post by ndolan387 on Oct 26, 2020 8:51:22 GMT -6
Yeah they won't get that much accretion, temp is 32* there currently. But impressive to see a glazing on elevated surfaces in October! Upper 20s tonight. As 99 alluded too, trees still have leaves on them which makes for a very dangerous situation. Good point. Though, it's still going to be hard to receive 1/2" of ice or more on trees, etc. I could be wrong big time, but it needs to colder during the day. As well, it has have been way above freezing there leading up to the ice storm so ground temps are toasty. Ice accretion should be more efficient tonight there.
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Post by ndolan387 on Oct 26, 2020 8:17:18 GMT -6
OK city has an ice storm warning till 1pm Wednesday. .5 to 1 inch of accumulation. In October. WTF Yeah they won't get that much accretion, temp is 32* there currently. But impressive to see a glazing on elevated surfaces in October!
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Post by ndolan387 on Oct 24, 2020 8:56:00 GMT -6
Monday won't be quiet weather haha
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Post by ndolan387 on Oct 24, 2020 7:23:10 GMT -6
This board's way too quiet, I guess it's because it's the weekend.
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Post by ndolan387 on Oct 23, 2020 11:55:59 GMT -6
Good trends indeed unclesam, I hope it's legit.
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Post by ndolan387 on Oct 22, 2020 10:36:58 GMT -6
Looks like we'll be waiting on those first flakes for quite a bit longer. GFS looking quite a bit warmer too. Also this early leaf drop isn't too promising either. I have speculation that nature's going screw it, there is no winter this year, so just cycle up the leaves and get ready to bud again. Chances of a 2011-2012 Winter or 2016-17 are looking very good which is to say we get nothing much colder than hoodie weather basically and then warp to Summer again, which will likely be a beast coming up. At least its looking wetter overall going forward, so the drought will be at least temporarily busted. For now anyway. Also the overall lack of other signs from nature I.E geese, bird migrations, and still tons of bugs doesn't help our odds one bit. You do provide useful insight on here and it's appreciated. But, we are holding you to all these crazy, hip thinking predictions. On Sat or next week, etc., please don't say odds are in favor that this upcoming winter will be extremely cold/snowy. I can't take these rollar coaster thoughts anymore. It's too much. There are a lot of super knowledgeable people on this board who can see through this fake hype. Also, some people wear only hoodies when it's below 0* air temp. Some hoodie weather can mean it's plenty cold outside! 🤣
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Post by ndolan387 on Oct 22, 2020 10:25:20 GMT -6
I hate to add to the negative fire here,
But the track of the storm being portrayed on the 12z GFS early next week isn't a good producer at all IMO for snow for us. If there's a cycling pattern (which I believe there's, I don't know what your think), lets hope there's more cold air available in Dec when this storm cycles back through or otherwise we will be singing in the rain just before Christmas. I know that's bold prediction since cycle 1 isn't over yet and we don't even know the cycling pattern length of cycle 1 yet.
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Post by ndolan387 on Oct 21, 2020 22:21:38 GMT -6
The cold air supply from the high pressure just disappears on the 00z GFS early next week, crushing our hopes of at least some flakes. One solution, many more to come.
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Post by ndolan387 on Oct 20, 2020 22:45:15 GMT -6
Too early to get specific, but I like the overall look of the storm on the 00z GFS. A step in the right direction with a further SE wintery storm track. It would involve multiple pieces of energy ejecting with dry time in between of course. And to somewhat answer your question, the placement of the high pressure and convection can play a role in lower precip output on the models. Btrnwxman and snowstorm920 can give you a better answer.
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Post by ndolan387 on Oct 20, 2020 22:15:20 GMT -6
00z GFS is a smorgasbord bruiser for early next week over the middle part of the country!
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Post by ndolan387 on Oct 20, 2020 10:36:29 GMT -6
Btrnwxman, I think you are going to get your wish of more rain by your neck of the woods today
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Post by ndolan387 on Oct 20, 2020 10:14:29 GMT -6
Still early I know! But, this storm early next week IMO is looking more and more like a KC to Kirksville to Chicago storm. Potentially even further north. Either way it's going to be a tight gradient of where the rain/snow line sets up and I would love to see that gradient shift further SE into our neck of woods. If the models continue to show potential of wintery precip on Thursday, I'd call this a storm of interest.
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Post by ndolan387 on Oct 20, 2020 6:36:42 GMT -6
Thanks snowman99 and jmg378s for your answers! Jmg478, you are so knowledgeable. Is this a hobby for you or did you get a PhD or masters? You would excel if you still decided to do that/get a job related to model computing.
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Post by ndolan387 on Oct 19, 2020 13:20:46 GMT -6
CAMs whiffed HARD on it. Looks like the best performers were the GFS/NAM and Rgem... not often you get to say that. I rarely put much weight in the short-range CAMS during the cold months for that reason...if the setup favors mesoscale banding, the RGEM or NAM usually does pretty well...and at times, the EURO does too. What are the short-range CAMS? What does CAMS stand for?
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Post by ndolan387 on Oct 19, 2020 8:21:06 GMT -6
~15 in of snow or 1 in of sleet, or 0.5" glazing factoring in less moisture supply, more dry slots during the winter season, and any possible situation where the thermal gradient above is just 1* too warm in the cold layer (not letter) haha. Seriously if you believe in the cycling length pattern (I do) then this storm is promising for our upcoming winter. I'm still going to keep expectations low!
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Post by ndolan387 on Oct 6, 2020 7:32:20 GMT -6
Looks like we were going to be close to a record high tomorrow.
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Post by ndolan387 on Oct 5, 2020 8:03:13 GMT -6
3ish hours at or below freezing. The low was 31 here in Northern Wildwood! KSUS got down to 30.
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Post by ndolan387 on Oct 4, 2020 19:41:40 GMT -6
34 early tomorrow morning after 5am-7:30am looks doable. Then a second Summer come time Wednesday into early next week...it happens every year it seems just at different times.
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Post by ndolan387 on Oct 1, 2020 19:32:19 GMT -6
It's Oct 1, please don't throw the !Drying Cloth! in yet
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Post by ndolan387 on Sept 30, 2020 14:56:30 GMT -6
Well I thought it was supposed to be cool for a few weeks. Nws already saying warmup thru next week. Yay. This pattern is more progressive than anything else.
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Post by ndolan387 on Sept 29, 2020 22:52:57 GMT -6
I like this pattern we are in, but maybe too dry. Still too early. Sat looks like a sneaky ripple in the WNW flow producing some rain...maybe a quick 1-2" er come time 2+ months from now when winter is here!
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Post by ndolan387 on Sept 20, 2020 9:04:12 GMT -6
Two nights back to back of low temps of 43-44. These colder mornings and sunny dry days will soon make the trees pop with color!
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Post by ndolan387 on Sept 9, 2020 14:38:26 GMT -6
I'm sorry Chris! Daisy, I'm sure has had a wonderful life so far thanks to you and your family! Hang in there. We lost our black lab (Cash) in Dec 2018...he was almost 15.5 years old (2ish weeks away). It isn't a fun time. We ended up getting a new black lab puppy almost 3 weeks ago (Shaq) and I end up catching myself calling him Cash. It takes a long time to get over your loss, we waited awhile before getting a new dog. Peaceful days ahead for Daisy!
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Post by ndolan387 on Sept 7, 2020 20:24:50 GMT -6
The HRRRs latest runs are interesting.
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Post by ndolan387 on Sept 7, 2020 8:35:32 GMT -6
GFS and the other models were too progressive in the long range. This would be in our favor if the front in the winter can shift SE 150-200 mi haha. Happy Labor Day!
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Post by ndolan387 on Sept 1, 2020 11:14:25 GMT -6
holy cats that GFS run would be so beautiful if it were 2.5 months from now. By golly that's pretty! The trough becomes neutrally tilted and the low pressure becomes closed off at 500mb. Then good cyclone spin...TROWAL like...that would bring good deformation snows to us when in the cold sector!
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Post by ndolan387 on Aug 31, 2020 10:40:43 GMT -6
Snowman, the storms are coming your way soon!
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Post by ndolan387 on Aug 13, 2020 20:25:02 GMT -6
This is the extent of my rain for the past two days in Chesterfield... Yeah as Btrnwxman mention, that's about to change right now. It's on its way to Wildwood!
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Post by ndolan387 on Aug 13, 2020 14:45:59 GMT -6
Getting thunder in Northern Wildwood, but that one cell is to my SW going through Augusta moving to the west. The storm relative motion of these cells are all different and just weird! I feel for you Chris when it comes to trying to make a forecast.
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