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Post by ndolan387 on Feb 12, 2020 17:15:32 GMT -6
The models have converged on a 2 hour hit of moderate snow tonight between 11-2am in the metro. We actually might pick up 0.15" qpf but ratios are shyt I had assumed ratios would be pretty good tonight...guess that's not the case? Yeah I would have thought the same thing...decent ratios above 12 to 1. But the more I look at the evolution of the deformation snows after midnight, it looks mostly like a katafront. Which is when the (precipitation) snow occurs before the Arctic air's CAA really starts spilling into our area. The biggest impact as we have stated for Thurs morning's rush is the flash freezing. Also, if we get more than inch...we will have a good chance to get down to 0* Fri morning! WCs -5 to -15!!
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Post by ndolan387 on Feb 11, 2020 21:54:18 GMT -6
I saw Luke as the first name so I didn't know for sure haha.
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Post by ndolan387 on Feb 11, 2020 21:46:05 GMT -6
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Post by ndolan387 on Feb 9, 2020 22:26:23 GMT -6
If the NAM is right the storm after midnight Tues to later Wednesday will be moving to the NE in a hurry. The 250mb jet streak maximum winds reach 200+ kts. The storm could get caught up in the upper level jet streak. It could be similar to what happened this past Wednesday when our moisture supply shut down around 6 hrs earlier than what's modeled. So it most likely won't be a long duration storm.
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Post by ndolan387 on Feb 9, 2020 22:06:50 GMT -6
One thing that we can bet on...is that it looks to be cold and dry for this coming Thursday and Valentine's Day haha.
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Post by ndolan387 on Feb 9, 2020 11:47:55 GMT -6
I wasn't expecting all this sun today. Feels like spring today. Birds chirping. 4 weeks till we spring forward in time. I sometimes don't pay close enough attention to the 1 day forecasts and or current weather conditions it seems haha. Instead, focusing on the next storm of interest.
But yeah, Btrnwxman is right, there's no reason to get overly excited about this upcoming storm. Smart to keep expectations low.
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Post by ndolan387 on Feb 9, 2020 11:35:13 GMT -6
12z GEFS That's actually pretty good! A 70-80% chance that snowfall accumulations are equal to or exceed 1 in by 1pm this coming Thursday if I'm reading that right.
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Post by ndolan387 on Feb 8, 2020 18:46:31 GMT -6
Looks like 12z euro will remain the north outlier That's a beef run for Chicago
Meanwhile STL gets a perfect Memphis low track and nothing but cold rain
Sounds about right
Yep! We haven't had strong enough cold air advection with most our systems this winter minus the Nov 11th and Dec 15-17 snowstorm. Yet, I think we have had at least what seems 2 storms with good low tracks. The result a borderline event also happening during the day to make matters worst with maximum solar insolation.
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Post by ndolan387 on Feb 7, 2020 15:37:26 GMT -6
Not sure it's going to happen, but this sounding off the 18z Hi res NAM makes me think thunder is possible this afternoon Are you looking at the omega values to infer that thunder snow is possible? I seem rusty on how to look for potential thunder on skew ts.
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Post by ndolan387 on Feb 7, 2020 15:29:11 GMT -6
Chris - I meant to post this yesterday but got sidetracked. The video made me long for the days when you would give those video updates BEFORE a storm. Loved watching those. As for this one, I saw it in no way as a cover your butt type deal, but rather, a pretty darn explanation of the science behind the forecast and how difficult it was, epecially with a tranistion zone setting up over the most populous area of the metro. Yeah... I wish I had more time to do those videos. But on this shift especially... it is TOUGH to pull it all together. It is amazing how quickly the day drifts away after I get home. I didn't get to bed until after 7pm last night...and up at 1230am. I'm not going to survive on those hours. But if time allows... it certainly is still on the table. Of course... I've been out of town for the last couple big storms lol. I like how you said big storms lol emphasis on the lol...yeah you didn't miss much at all when you were out of town. Though as we have pointed out, it's amazing how many days this winter snow has been falling from the sky.
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Post by ndolan387 on Feb 6, 2020 8:31:20 GMT -6
Good morning y'all! I haven't seen any discussion on snow pack up north. I would guess that is due to the lack there of? Wondering how flooding could be this year. Have a cup of coffee, your favorite breakfast and enjoy the day! Im concerned about flooding. Yeah flooding is going to be a big issue this spring. The overall active pattern will continue.
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Post by ndolan387 on Feb 5, 2020 21:39:20 GMT -6
Reed Timmer posted this and I thought it was worth sharing. EURO definitely performed well with this storm. This was Sunday evening's run. Smart of Reed to do this. 3-4 days out, we want to get the track down first...not get too specific with the numbers. Remember it's model guidance not model reality haha. Days like today help humble us. At the end of the day, we remember we don't have all the answers to weather forecasting. But that's what I love/hate about weather, ya feel. It's symbolic to the ups and downs of our lives. Expect the unexpected. Head up, hungry for the next chance, in this case the next storm haha!
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Post by ndolan387 on Feb 5, 2020 15:31:15 GMT -6
My yearly total is off because I wasn't here for last weeks little dust up. Anyone able to give me a Chesterfield estimate for the small event last week? I got you! For Northern Wildwood, there was a dusting on Jan. 28th. Then for Jan. 29th I measured around 0.7". So the numbers should be close for western or eastern Chesterfield.
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Post by ndolan387 on Feb 4, 2020 22:19:32 GMT -6
The 00z NAM is a razor thin setup in determining where the sleet/line will set up. The warm wedge for sleet is only about 0.5" above 0*C on the soundings. Warrenton to the NW looks close the to transition line looks to be mostly snow. One way or another it looks like it will be sleeting or snowing like crazy somewhere near the metro.
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Post by ndolan387 on Feb 3, 2020 21:28:19 GMT -6
850mb low is further NE than surface low. What does that mean? Occlusion about to happen...system starting to weaken? Lows are almost stacked.
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Post by ndolan387 on Feb 3, 2020 21:23:46 GMT -6
850 low is much further northwest... the storm as a whole isn't as wrapped up either... FWIR GYB is best for occluded systems. 00z NAM: Yeah the 850mb low looks a little further N slightly NW than the surface low. Though at 03z Thurs, the 850mb low looks further NE than the surface low. Self to note...on using GYB on more wound up systems.
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Post by ndolan387 on Feb 2, 2020 18:39:17 GMT -6
Yep smash the previous 66 from 2016. The crazy thing is that record is so recent. A possible new trend for early Feb. And the record for Feb 1 is 81 or something like that. Odd there is such a spread between the two days. Although that spread narrowed today. I forgot that, but it's coming back to me regarding crazy 81 record. It doesn't surprise me since Feb is really one of the most chaotic months in terms of temperature swings year round. Feb may have the biggest temperature range between the maximum record high and minimum record low!
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Post by ndolan387 on Feb 2, 2020 16:38:43 GMT -6
Lambert hit 70 according to a NWS tweet. Smashing the record. Yep smash the previous 66 from 2016. The crazy thing is that record is so recent. A possible new trend for early Feb.
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Post by ndolan387 on Feb 2, 2020 11:05:37 GMT -6
Wow they are eerie similar! 9 years apart on the same day as 2011 if the 12z NAM is onto something.
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Post by ndolan387 on Feb 2, 2020 10:34:27 GMT -6
500mb energy on the 12z GFS is digging down in Mexico for this system. So not really a four corners storm.
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Post by ndolan387 on Feb 2, 2020 10:29:27 GMT -6
12z GFS is a good place to be in this range. I'd rather have it too far south than north due to the fact we haven't problems with suppression this winter thus far. Though this could be the first time haha. Hopefully we can cash in on the Wed/Thurs deformation snows too.
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Post by ndolan387 on Feb 1, 2020 13:44:05 GMT -6
Man that's straight amazing! Wow...oh boy is right. So amplified.
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Post by ndolan387 on Jan 31, 2020 22:16:46 GMT -6
Yeah...00z GFS looks much better! The energy digs the right amount...leading to a nice amplification giving us decent deformation snows on Wed into early Thurs.
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Post by ndolan387 on Jan 31, 2020 8:31:26 GMT -6
haha.... no such thing as mesoscale back then. Just global... LFM... and I thought NGM (earlier I said NAM..but I meant NGM)..but Jmg says it was AVN... and NGM came later. He could be right. Good to know, that makes sense now for the 80s. Just global to get the general Synoptic weather pattern. Next week for Tues-Thur system it looks like there will be two different pieces of energy on the heels of each other. The second later energy looks to bring more potential in the way of snow for us (Wed-early Thurs) if the track shifts west some.
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Post by ndolan387 on Jan 30, 2020 21:54:34 GMT -6
Don't know, but local NWS did a hindcast a few years back with the WRF and it supposedly did fairly well with the event. Yeah.. that was a project I worked on with them. We ultimately ended up doing a story on the project. There were really only two models back the... the NAM and LFM. Somewhere in my files I actually have the LFM output from that storm. It was a big swing and a miss. So only mesoscale models back during the event? No global models...hmm.
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Post by ndolan387 on Jan 29, 2020 20:11:14 GMT -6
Thanks!!! I am at the Swansea il metro station waiting on the train. I'm. Freezing and my feet are wet. nevertheless it is flat-out modern snow again the ground is white again wow it's not sticking that well but it's beautiful so far I'm giving this winter an A now in Belleville. If the next two months are mostly warm and rainy or dry I will drop it down to a B. If even 1/3rd of the next two months is wintry the A stays. The only way to drop to a C is for us to have a forecast calling for 6-15" and we get 1" or less. some winners we go weeks months it was not one snowflake we can't die even half our snow shower And why this winter we only have around 10-12" in total so far. we've had so many days with light to moderate and given heavy snow where we've gotten a dust in half an inch but it's just the fact that she knows we've been getting snow all the time It truly has been a miracle on the number days since Nov where snow has been falling with such relatively warm temperatures. The coldest our region has gotten is the extreme record cold outbreak of upper single digits to 10* on Veteran's Day in Nov. Since then we have only been able to get down into the mid to upper teens due to the extremely high AO and NAO (a record). Thus, all the Arctic air is being modified and kept way to the north. That's all of Dec and Jan, it's just crazy how we haven't managed to get colder than around Veteran's Day. Over the last 5-6 years there has been a clear new trend of a severe start to the "winter" season in Nov. Not all the years have featured it, but it sure isn't a coincidence now!
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Post by ndolan387 on Jan 27, 2020 20:55:39 GMT -6
At 250mb on the 00z NAM, the jet streak for our Wed system is all the way down by the Gulf of Mexico. Even if it trends north say 100 mi, it would still be tough for us to get decent lift and moisture. It's too bad because these southern storms pack a nice punch in terms of snowfall.
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Post by ndolan387 on Jan 27, 2020 20:44:14 GMT -6
00z NAM looks more organized at 500mb for the Wed southern storm than the 18z GFS. It's still unimpressive, but up to an inch seems possible for the southern 2/3 of the metro.
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Post by ndolan387 on Jan 23, 2020 23:32:19 GMT -6
Yeah unclesam, you will truly cash in on the TROWAL early tomorrow morning!
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Post by ndolan387 on Jan 23, 2020 20:07:05 GMT -6
Better late than never Snowstorm920 and FRIV haha.
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