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Post by ndolan387 on Jan 23, 2020 20:07:05 GMT -6
Better late than never Snowstorm920 and FRIV haha.
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Post by ndolan387 on Jan 23, 2020 19:41:51 GMT -6
Snowstorm920 and FRIV...radar returns would suggest you should be seeing near heavy snow. All snow.
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Post by ndolan387 on Jan 22, 2020 21:40:01 GMT -6
500mb Negatively Tilted Closed 540dm Low on the 00z NAM. Wow that looks good.
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Post by ndolan387 on Jan 22, 2020 21:04:20 GMT -6
Kudos to Snowstorm920, Coz, Worldseries, Unclesam and the others I didn't mention for all the updates and being on top of the deformation potential late tomorrow afternoon thru early Fri and Fri night as east central MO gets backside snow. That TROWAL on the 00z NAM is so pretty setting up shop in our neck of the woods and it's a slow mover too. We won't have any problems with it being all snow. Judging by the NAM, the heaviest snow intensities will be when there's no solar insolation which is good. Ratios may be below 10, but it should stick well. It looks like there will be a lull between Fri morning and afternoon, but then after that we get more backside snow Fri night.
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Post by ndolan387 on Jan 21, 2020 18:31:15 GMT -6
18z euro. Solid run If only say half of the qpf snow being shown accumulates due to borderline temps...that would still yield around 2-3" of snow.
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Post by ndolan387 on Jan 20, 2020 20:52:44 GMT -6
That's a plethora of moisture! And we are only a little over 48 hrs out.
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Post by ndolan387 on Jan 20, 2020 20:49:12 GMT -6
Think we would want the nam a bit east, but still a fun run Agreed! At this point though the potential is there for something big, that's for sure. Too early for details. Someone somewhere on this blog is going to get dumped on I believe.
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Post by ndolan387 on Jan 20, 2020 20:47:17 GMT -6
I like the colder 850mb temps on the 00z NAM compared to the 18z GFS.
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Post by ndolan387 on Jan 20, 2020 20:41:44 GMT -6
00z NAM is a fun one in terms of snow for most of us after starting out as rain or a mix!
What a long duration storm the 00z NAM shows. Wow what a crazy run.
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Post by ndolan387 on Jan 20, 2020 20:03:20 GMT -6
They just showed on the news it looked like 3-5” is that about right World Series? Ohare had 3.1 and Midway had 2.6, so I would say I was around 2 or 2.5 inches since the lake is still warm lol. The drifts were cool though. Looked like a foot plus in the park, but other areas were bare. Better than nothing, but not like we got slammed Glad you got at least something! You are always so nice filling us in with new model updates.
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Post by ndolan387 on Jan 20, 2020 18:03:06 GMT -6
18z gfs ensemble mean beefing up... A couple monsters in there What was your final total with your recent snow storm in Chicago? Probably hard to measure with all the drifts. Hope you get in on the future action too.
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Post by ndolan387 on Jan 20, 2020 17:23:56 GMT -6
Yeah you would think dynamic cooling would take over if the snow rate is moderate/heavy. That’s right when the precep is moving in. That’s a degree or two off from a freezing rain sounding. The soundings show the warm layer becoming weaker and the system evolves Yeah it's going to interesting to forecast to say the least.
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Post by ndolan387 on Jan 20, 2020 17:05:22 GMT -6
For a good chunk GFS has 850s below 0, but rain.. Looks like a very shallow layer of above freezing temps near the surface. Dynamic cooling would take care of that easily I think Yeah you would think dynamic cooling would take over if the snow rate is moderate/heavy.
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Post by ndolan387 on Jan 20, 2020 16:53:44 GMT -6
For a good chunk GFS has 850s below 0, but rain.. Looks like a very shallow layer of above freezing temps near the surface. Dynamic cooling would take care of that easily I think I agree dynamic cooling should help, but it's close. The good news is that precip looks to start late Wednesday or after midnight Thursday when there's no solar insolation.
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Post by ndolan387 on Jan 20, 2020 16:42:39 GMT -6
850mb temps above 0*C. We got the GEM/EURO/NAM on our side tho! For a good chunk GFS has 850s below 0, but rain.. Good call, my bad! Your right, didn't look closely enough. When precip first breaks out, the 850mb temps are above 0*C. Then 850mb temps cool below 0*C, which you point out.
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Post by ndolan387 on Jan 20, 2020 16:38:56 GMT -6
question .. seems like NWS is leaning on GFS for the late week storm. Is Euro and NAM showing any rain? Curious as to why the NWS seems to give more weight to the GFS and it's warmer solution? A week ago, the NWS was forecasting snow to rain for our "ice storm" this past Friday around 4 days out. Look at the result...not much if any snow, but some sleet and mostly freezing rain on elevated surfaces. But then plenty rain which was expected 4-5 days out. There many possibilities with this thread the needle storm being only 2-3 days out. I believe the recent NAM is a icy mix to snow, with maybe some rain during the day Thursday, but it looks mainly snow. Someone else can tell you about the Euro, I'm not sure if it shows rain. Snowstorm920 said it showed some healthy snowfall amounts today.
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Post by ndolan387 on Jan 20, 2020 16:29:34 GMT -6
GFs looks good just keeps it all rain for whatever reason 850mb temps above 0*C. We got the GEM/EURO/NAM on our side tho!
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Post by ndolan387 on Jan 20, 2020 11:09:17 GMT -6
Good trends this am for Thurs-Fri system...thanks for the updates!
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Post by ndolan387 on Jan 20, 2020 9:12:42 GMT -6
Clouds last night kept the temp from dropping into the single digits. So our coldest temperatures were still in November. Yep, it may be hard for the region to hit 9 again this winter. It will be interesting to see if that's our coldest temp this "winter". If you even include Nov as winter.
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Post by ndolan387 on Jan 19, 2020 22:43:39 GMT -6
00z GEM still showing the snowy solution for the late week system.
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Post by ndolan387 on Jan 19, 2020 16:37:14 GMT -6
It has been way too warm until this recent cold snap. Thanks for the the charts Snowstorm920. Anyone remember Jan 2005? It's the wettest Jan on record where 9.01" of precipitation fell at KSTL. KSTL is at 5.87" right now which puts this Jan as the 5th wettest on record. And we got more precipitation coming this week with it only being Jan 19th. We have a chance to be the 4th or 3rd wettest Jan on record.
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Post by ndolan387 on Jan 17, 2020 18:45:52 GMT -6
Well I was off on my predictions last night. I will take it as a loss. Onto the next storm! Glad everyone took this storm seriously because it could easily go either way in terms of low impact or high impact on the roads. If we are going to have a legit ice storm here we need colder ground temperatures, colder air and wet bulb temperatures. As well, a start time overnight, early morning or after sunset. One of these days it will all come together, today just wasn't that time.
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Post by ndolan387 on Jan 17, 2020 11:14:15 GMT -6
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Post by ndolan387 on Jan 17, 2020 9:55:20 GMT -6
The dewpoints are in the upper 10s to near 20. The temps will cool a couple degrees to the wet bulb temperature if anything when the precip comes in and intensifies. We are not going to see rain on the leading edge haha. Though, one thing to note right now is that we may have 2 hours less of good ice accretion than what last night and this morning's models were portraying.
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Post by ndolan387 on Jan 16, 2020 23:20:18 GMT -6
Veering...warm air advection really showing its face above 850mb at that point (6pm CST). If you ever see that hodograph with any cape you better run for the basement Yep...lots of wind shear in many directions (curved). When it's all done... Less an 1" in of snow ~0.25" in of sleet Up to 1/3" in of ice glazing ~1" in of rain Seems realistic. I think we could all say, the ice accumulations have the highest variability right now haha.
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Post by ndolan387 on Jan 16, 2020 23:07:21 GMT -6
Veering...warm air advection really showing its face above 850mb at that point (6pm CST).
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Post by ndolan387 on Jan 16, 2020 22:12:41 GMT -6
Coz, little help on what that means please? Freezing rain big time!
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Post by ndolan387 on Jan 15, 2020 22:20:28 GMT -6
Like coz mentioned, I think the models aren't forecasting correctly the impact of a 1045-1048 mb high across the Great Lakes. I think it's being underestimated and the ENE wind will hold on longer.
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Post by ndolan387 on Jan 15, 2020 22:05:47 GMT -6
Verbatim at the surface, the 00z GFS is still below freezing at 6pm across the metro. Many of the other models show we get above freezing at the surface sometime after 6pm (potentially at 4pm though) since it's a WAA driven event.
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Post by ndolan387 on Jan 15, 2020 20:33:21 GMT -6
Oh yeah, based on that...it would be pouring sleet haha.
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