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Post by ndolan387 on Jan 15, 2020 19:58:07 GMT -6
And to think the NWS was forecasting snow to rain this morning. They were late to the game with our 2-3 inch storm this past weekend forecasting 1 inch or less at best until issuing a WAA for STL county just after 3pm on Saturday. They upped totals last minute even though there was a consensus after the 00z runs on Friday showing this potential (12-18 hrs earlier). And now here, as most of the models/ensembles showed at least some freezing rain back on Monday. I understand it's good to be conservative when forecasting, but this set up has been more ripe for ice than snow when it was first being modeled. I think at least a WAA should of been issued for the STL metro in the afternoon package today. All it takes is a couple hundreds of an inch of ice to cause major problems. There needs to be better lead time for the public for the upcoming event IMO. It's becoming increasingly likely that Friday's afternoon/evening will be bad. Still time to get another model run or two before an advisory would be issued...although no mention of freezing rain in that forecast is odd considering that looks to be the predominate p-type besides for plain rain, IMO...and potential for significant amounts of glazing. EDIT: I see that they have added ZR with the update. Yeah they updated it in the afternoon package! It took them awhile IMO. At the end of the day you don't want to underestimate forecasting a freezing rain potential.
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Post by ndolan387 on Jan 15, 2020 17:57:31 GMT -6
And to think the NWS was forecasting snow to rain this morning. They were late to the game with our 2-3 inch storm this past weekend forecasting 1 inch or less at best until issuing a WAA for STL county just after 3pm on Saturday. They upped totals last minute even though there was a consensus after the 00z runs on Friday showing this potential (12-18 hrs earlier). And now here, as most of the models/ensembles showed at least some freezing rain back on Monday. I understand it's good to be conservative when forecasting, but this set up has been more ripe for ice than snow when it was first being modeled. I think at least a WAA should of been issued for the STL metro in the afternoon package today. All it takes is a couple hundreds of an inch of ice to cause major problems. There needs to be better lead time for the public for the upcoming event IMO. It's becoming increasingly likely that Friday's afternoon/evening will be bad.
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Post by ndolan387 on Jan 13, 2020 20:54:27 GMT -6
OK, Super-cooled Rain v Freezing Rain Let me make sure I have this straight. When super-cooled raindrops hit the ground (or something else) they freeze on contact since they are already below freezing. Freezing rain falls at a temp above freezing into an environment below freezing and freezes on contact. Either way you get a glaze of ice, right? What am I missing? Is one worse than the other? Seems like super-cooled rain would be harder to forecast. Thanks in advance for the weather 101. Grizz Freezing rain is precipitation which falls as rain in the air, but once it hits the surface it freezes. (Everyone I think knows this). If the warm wedge in the upper atmosphere say from 700mb down to 850mb is smaller (only 1-2* above 0* C -supercooled droplets) and there's a deep shallow cold layer at the surface (2-3* colder than 0*C) then that allows for good ice accretion. Worldseries, unclesam beat me haha.
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Post by ndolan387 on Jan 13, 2020 17:29:22 GMT -6
The NWS is notorious for being conservative in forecasting temps and or precipitation amounts in the medium to long range. They want to see a clear consensus first.
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Post by ndolan387 on Jan 12, 2020 22:18:26 GMT -6
Mid 30s and rain Friday will be enjoyable. The 850mb low just came south a decent bit from the 18z GFS run. Way to early to iron out the details. Though, rain is a good bet, but this looks more complex to me. Freezing rain to rain to sleet/snow could be another possible outcome.
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Post by ndolan387 on Jan 11, 2020 23:22:06 GMT -6
Measured some more 2-3 hrs later just now, 3.1" for the final total here in northern Wildwood.
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Post by ndolan387 on Jan 11, 2020 20:50:01 GMT -6
3" for the storm total in Northern Wildwood.
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Post by ndolan387 on Jan 11, 2020 16:54:15 GMT -6
1.5" in Northern Wildwood by the MO river.
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Post by ndolan387 on Jan 11, 2020 15:40:12 GMT -6
All snow...big hamsters! This is accumulating quickly. 31*.
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Post by ndolan387 on Jan 11, 2020 15:15:43 GMT -6
Snow mixing in...big hamsters.
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Post by ndolan387 on Jan 11, 2020 14:57:05 GMT -6
Intermittent small snow flakes w/ the sleet. Thus, a grapuel mix mainly sleet now.
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Post by ndolan387 on Jan 11, 2020 14:53:10 GMT -6
Sleet in Wildwood.
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Post by ndolan387 on Jan 11, 2020 12:56:52 GMT -6
Hope Daisy's alright Chris! Yes as others have alluded to, I think the NWS is down playing this one. There will be no solar insolation...after 6pm when the heaviest sleet/snow happens. As Brtn just said we weren't supposed to be near freezing till early this evening. IMO MODOT has a chance to bust this one up. I think 2" of snow is doable in the central/western STL metro. Edit (after 4pm).
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Post by ndolan387 on Jan 11, 2020 10:53:03 GMT -6
If I was the NWS I’d expand the WWA a county or two SE Totally agree!
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Post by ndolan387 on Jan 10, 2020 23:33:36 GMT -6
I like the HRRR's trend for our deformation snows tomorrow. Looks like a quick but hard hit of sleet and snow
Ukie showing this storm why it's a world class model
Yeah! Sleet at the onset, but it will change to snow very quickly. For sure, Ukie is on top!
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Post by ndolan387 on Jan 10, 2020 23:24:25 GMT -6
I like the HRRR's trend for our deformation snows tomorrow.
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Post by ndolan387 on Jan 10, 2020 20:39:48 GMT -6
Decent hook just NW of Sullivan heading to west STL County and St. Charles County just after 9pm. Moving at 53kts!! Out where I live. Hopefully no power outages.
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Post by ndolan387 on Jan 10, 2020 20:27:18 GMT -6
Like snowstorm has said knowing where the placement of that meso band sets up near the metro is like gambling. Another now casting situation once again. Though, the NAM did a decent job picking up the location of the meso bands 24 hrs prior to our recent Dec snowstorm.
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Post by ndolan387 on Jan 10, 2020 10:44:52 GMT -6
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Post by ndolan387 on Jan 9, 2020 22:53:49 GMT -6
The GFS camp is about to miserably embarrass itself or outplay the euro I mean...the Euro hasn't really been king this winter, right? Right the Euro has been bad in the med-long range.
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Post by ndolan387 on Jan 9, 2020 22:33:38 GMT -6
The EURO has really struggled this past year especially in the 3-7 day window. I agree the GFS and Ukmet fit the past pattern more. If the neutral/negative trough slides 50 mi more to the east this will be a much different story than what is forecasted now. Just glad we are wasting tons of moisture in the form of rain instead of snow during the second week of Jan...not haha!
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Post by ndolan387 on Jan 9, 2020 12:32:51 GMT -6
is the gfs trying to develop 2 sfc lows here or is this feed back?? i.imgur.com/n4EMxNb.pngI'm referring to the frontal "lobe" developing in western MO Looks like an inverted trof in response to the upper level divergence. The multiple centers further east are probably due to convective feedback... TROWAL -Trough of Warm Air Aloft maybe? That's an inverted trough.
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Post by ndolan387 on Jan 7, 2020 10:11:33 GMT -6
Flooding looks like a huge concern for our neck of the woods (slightly negative to neutrally tilted trough-classic heavy rain setup)...12z GFS is on the flood bandwagon.
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Post by ndolan387 on Jan 5, 2020 17:01:12 GMT -6
The 18z GFS looks realistic for that storm. It will be interesting to see if it can beat the GEM/Euro. The euro really isn’t that different, while the ggem is slower and more developed. I think it’s worth watching, but rain will definitely be a prominent precipitation type in STL. The 10th-20th is going to be more interesting than a lot on this board are giving it credit for. Gfs even has Barney entering the region by mid month. Have to love those deep purples and pinks on the maps Good to know, I didn't even look at the Euro or GEM! I just listen to you or snowstorm. So, the GEM is alone 5-6 days out. Like you mentioned, pattern will start becoming interesting soon.
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Post by ndolan387 on Jan 5, 2020 16:49:19 GMT -6
Also, here comes the 18z gfs with a lot of rain followed by ice and snow Friday-Saturday lol. That drought forecast though The system this weekend will have a ton of moisture to work with if the models are right. Just need it to not get sheared before it can develop some The 18z GFS looks realistic for that storm. It will be interesting to see if it can beat the GEM/Euro.
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Post by ndolan387 on Jan 4, 2020 21:58:11 GMT -6
Some ideal radiational cooling going on tonight...already down in the mid-upper 20s! Though, winds will switch to the S after midnight so temps will plateau. This is the most excitement for me in terms of weather the last couple weeks haha. Our time will come after Jan 10-15 IMO though.
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Post by ndolan387 on Jan 3, 2020 13:13:13 GMT -6
I think it’s only a matter of time before winter comes roaring back into the Midwest. Models show some big time cold building over western Canada into the US through the month. Just need the ridge near Alaska to move further east Would agree...as JB often says, delayed but not denied. Double agree! We are going to pay big time for this mild stretch the past couple weeks. Models past 5 days are having trouble with the changing pattern emerging IMO.
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Post by ndolan387 on Dec 23, 2019 15:30:38 GMT -6
Beautiful today. Enjoy the 70* temps Wed...I think we could surpass the record on Christmas Day (depending on how many high clouds)! Jan is still on track to bring some extreme cold.
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Post by ndolan387 on Dec 20, 2019 9:55:12 GMT -6
Euro weeklies have the cold coming back January 3rd and staying through the end of the month The cold coming in early mid Jan looks to be brutal like early mid Nov! Hopefully we can cash in on a frontogenesis snow storm before the Arctic Blast.
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Post by ndolan387 on Dec 17, 2019 8:54:50 GMT -6
5.5" for the storm total (In this total, I factored in some sublimation from Sun night) in Northern Wildwood just south of WHC. What a great storm!
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