|
Post by RyanD on Feb 3, 2022 13:20:29 GMT -6
Looking like 6-7" here in Waterloo. Just a guess. Huge drifts though. Easily some 2ft+ drifts. My personal forecast was for 8-12". Not going to hit 12 but 8" seems doable by tonight.
|
|
|
Post by RyanD on Feb 2, 2022 23:49:32 GMT -6
Flakes beginning to fly in Waterloo
|
|
|
Post by RyanD on Feb 2, 2022 17:48:00 GMT -6
Omg, Chris' video is going viral. It is now featured on the Reddit sub r/idiotsincars
It has over 35k upvotes
|
|
|
Post by RyanD on Feb 2, 2022 15:24:29 GMT -6
Looks like Reed Timmer retweeted Chris' tweet showing the car driving down the integrate with his rear left wheel stuck in place.
|
|
|
Post by RyanD on Feb 2, 2022 2:26:56 GMT -6
06z NAM looks good. Actually hits areas just south of town with a bit more than the city but not much, like an inch more. 10" downtown, 11" in Waterloo according to Pos. Snow Depth Change. Well over a foot just NW and West of the City. Approaching 20" far NW up by Quincy.
4 Weather Stations now reporting 32F in Waterloo. That's good!
|
|
|
Post by RyanD on Feb 2, 2022 2:03:01 GMT -6
Several Wunderground stations near my house in Waterloo now reporting 33F and a few at 34F so it's getting really close. I didn't expect to be below 36-37F at 2am.
|
|
|
Post by RyanD on Feb 1, 2022 22:41:45 GMT -6
That is good and nice to see the freeze line a little ahead of schedule. One of the recent maps posted shows a 13.5" and it looks like the airport on the map. That would be great to tie 1982, better to break it though. The fact that 1982 only recieved 13.5" at the airport is crazy. I wonder if that's reliable. My grandparents measured 22"+ in Fairview heights, IL. But the official Belleville amount was 14.8" I think. We had 14-15" in 2014 in Belleville. Yet the impact from the 1982 storm was crazy. I know it was wetter snow but still. Actually the '82 snow was mostly very dry snow after the first few inches. We actually dug down to the bottom of the snowpack to reach the "wet" snow at the bottom because the early snowfall was indeed very wet. Some of that wetness was also likely a result of the warm ground melting some snow I suppose. Lambert was on the NW edge so they received much less than the 20"+ we received in Red Bud and most of that fell in a 12 hour period. It had stopped snowing outside of a short snow shower by early the following morning.
|
|
|
Post by RyanD on Jan 31, 2022 17:14:48 GMT -6
As BTRN alluded to, this storm has a lot more similarities to '82 than GHD 2011. It is possible someone ends up with '82 numbers. Biggest difference I see is '82 had almost no sleet and saw a quick transition from rain to snow. If we can get they kind of transition in our area look out. Nice to see the models tending colder. This is a great sign.
|
|
|
Post by RyanD on Jan 31, 2022 0:49:50 GMT -6
Ahh, the frustrations of living in the "transition zone" but seems where I live is always in that zone. Seems all the models are honing in on a very heavy band of snow just N and NW of the metro. That area looks like a lock for big snow at this point. The question after that is how much snow falls in that transition zone from STL down to roughly the Kaskaskia River. Could be a sleetfest or could switch to snow sooner and make more of us happy. As usual this isn't going to be easy to pin down. UKIE is a big hit of snow for everyone. GEM is solid for my area but far from anything historic. GFS is huge depending on what algorithm you use. Oddly the total snowfall and positive depth is much higher than the Kuchera total snowfall for my area on the GFS. I can see why FRIV's is nervous because nothing sucks more than seeing the big snows just to your north while it's sleeting at your house. It looks like this could be a storm to remember for areas that turn to snow early and get in on all 3 waves.
Also, being today is the 40th anniversary of the "Blizzard" of '82 it's understandable there have been some comparisons to it. There are some strong similarities with the strong arctic front pressing in and stalling out just south of STL. A rather weak SLP tracking to the south of us. In fact this SLP is modeled even weaker but takes a similar path. The thing is, in '82 it just went straight from rain to snow. I don't recall any sleet. If it sleeted it was very brief. Just another anomaly with that storm. Thinking back I wonder why there wasn't more sleet given the similarities. Maybe we will get lucky and the cold air will be deeper and we switch to snow sooner. The SLP isn't very strong. Would think WAA wouldn't be that crazy but we all know too well you can never underestimate the WAM. I think we'd all be happy with an area wide 8-12" on top of some sleet but we can dream of a 15-20" storm. LOL
|
|
|
Post by RyanD on Jan 30, 2022 1:21:19 GMT -6
QPF wise the EURO looks great in my area south of STL but not sure how much of that is frozen.
|
|
|
Post by RyanD on Jan 29, 2022 16:40:21 GMT -6
I know it would have been inappropriate but would have loved to see the new thread named "40 years later, '82 Redux" lol
|
|
|
Post by RyanD on Jan 28, 2022 22:49:14 GMT -6
Geesh, GFS is nuts. I really don't want that much ZR. Would rather have power/heat.
Also of note, the GFS follows that winter storm for us on the 7th. Fun times ahead (assuming I don't end up in mostly rain which is still a huge concern IMO)
|
|
|
Post by RyanD on Jan 16, 2022 21:02:16 GMT -6
Snowing pretty good in Waterloo and the better returns haven't even arrived yet.
|
|
|
Post by RyanD on Jan 15, 2022 16:49:19 GMT -6
Pitiful. This is right next to my house. Very sad
|
|
|
Post by RyanD on Jan 13, 2022 22:01:54 GMT -6
This sure is a unique storm with no real analogs. I feel this storm may have a few tricks up its sleeve. I'm not totally writing off this thing slowing down and bombing out and crushing someone. I don't believe this will be rain for very long aside for a brief period at the onset. Once the precip rates pick up and with a NE wind aiding evap cooling the rain should quickly turn to snow and could be some monster flakes. It'll be sloppy and will compact but could make for a real "postcard" kind of scenery.
|
|
|
Post by RyanD on Dec 25, 2021 22:45:58 GMT -6
I run a rather large YouTube drone & rc channel. I have too many drones. Lol. I actually have not found a reason yet to get my 107 but let me ask my friend over at Idaho Quadcopter where he studied to pass the test. PM if you wish. What drones do you own? What's your channel? I bought a DJI Mavic Mini 2 this spring and love it. I've done over 100 flights so far this year. Actually had it out today looking at tornado damage. I still don't have my license though. Didn't really feel like anything Ive done so far would require it. Here is my channel. youtube.com/c/RDsDroneReviewsI have that original Mavic Mini along with an Autel Evo and a bunch more.
|
|
|
Post by RyanD on Dec 25, 2021 12:31:52 GMT -6
Bit off topic, but I'm thinking about getting my Part 107 License for a drone. My guess is that some of you have gotten it already. If so, where can I find info on reading metar and taf reports. Also, what is the best way to study for it. I know there are a lot of YouTube videos out there, but my guess is that most are a waste of time. TIA. I run a rather large YouTube drone & rc channel. I have too many drones. Lol. I actually have not found a reason yet to get my 107 but let me ask my friend over at Idaho Quadcopter where he studied to pass the test. PM if you wish. What drones do you own?
|
|
|
Post by RyanD on Dec 10, 2021 18:51:11 GMT -6
If you know anyone in Weiner, AR now would be the time to give them a heads up. Just messaged a friend in Osceola which is just east of there and he said he sirens are going off.
|
|
|
Post by RyanD on Dec 7, 2021 14:43:05 GMT -6
Quite a bit of flurries, some quite large currently in Waterloo.
|
|
|
Post by RyanD on Jul 24, 2021 0:02:22 GMT -6
I got some really neat drone footage this evening of the demolition derby at the Monroe County Fair. youtu.be/rtHItYFeLkg
|
|
|
Post by RyanD on Apr 20, 2021 14:29:56 GMT -6
Pretty good dusting here while ago.
|
|
|
Post by RyanD on Apr 20, 2021 13:07:21 GMT -6
SN+ in Waterloo. Grass and even exposed dirt turning white.
|
|
|
Post by RyanD on Mar 23, 2021 23:33:56 GMT -6
There may have been a brief tornado south of Waterloo. There was a brief couplet and a suspicious CC drop at the same time When? There wasn't even any thunder with the line of rain.
|
|
|
Post by RyanD on Feb 16, 2021 16:43:45 GMT -6
I'm kinda bummed about tomorrow. I had high hopes for the midweek system. My fault for believing the GFSv16 and NAM. I was really hoping to establish a crazy deep snowpack. I can't really complain. I have a good 10" in many places with the old snow combined with yesterday's 9". I just got greedy after seeing numerous models show 15-20" of snow this week. That being said, I wouldn't be surprised to see the system come in a bit further NW. My forecast is only calling for a 1/2 inch so it wouldn't take much to be an overperformer.
|
|
|
Post by RyanD on Feb 15, 2021 20:40:31 GMT -6
00z NAM is still decent for points SE. Looks good for 2-4". Shows around .2 -.3 qpf. It could still come back NW some but it doesn't look like the monster in our area like it did on the GFSv16 a few days ago Bootheel could see a foot though.
|
|
|
Post by RyanD on Feb 15, 2021 19:44:36 GMT -6
Is someone at the NWS taking official reports from this forum? Mom
|
|
|
Post by RyanD on Feb 15, 2021 19:42:33 GMT -6
Why wont the nws accept my snow total reports. They accepted RyanD -7.5" report at like 4:35pm. I reported 7" around that time. And 9" about 30 mins ago. But neither have showed up when other reports from only a few minutes ago are on there. I didn't submit any reports and I've not measured anything. All I've done so far today is eyeball measure which I sure hope no one is taking as "official". Lol
|
|
|
Post by RyanD on Feb 15, 2021 19:39:42 GMT -6
I just measured a drift on my front sidewalk of about 17 inches. I’ve never seen drifts this deep, at least that I can remember. I had to shovel a path for the 11-week old puppy to get out into the yard. They were that big in the subdivision on Jan 5th 2014. That one dumped 11" with similar drifting.
|
|
|
Post by RyanD on Feb 15, 2021 18:46:10 GMT -6
Heavy snow. Think this is the most snow I've seen since 2014. Gotta be 8-9" easy. Have some 2ft drifts.
|
|
|
Post by RyanD on Feb 15, 2021 18:14:48 GMT -6
5", biggest flakes of the day now It looks like double that here.
|
|