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Post by RyanD on Feb 15, 2021 18:01:37 GMT -6
Finally some bigger flakes but it has been snowing nicely all day here just mostly sheets of salt shaker stuff. Getting some big drifts. Biggest since 2014. We have to have 7-8" easy.
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Post by RyanD on Feb 15, 2021 14:22:44 GMT -6
Sure looks like 5-6" so far here but that's just a guess. Getting some decent drifting as well. 8" seems very doable on top of the few inches we already had. If we can get a decent snow on Wed/Thurs then we could easily have a snowpack well over a foot.
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Post by RyanD on Feb 15, 2021 12:24:08 GMT -6
Has anyone looked at the Wednesday storm? Serious question, have you thought of trying to learn how to read the models? They are SUPER easy to read on Pivotal Weather. You don't have to have a lot of weather knowledge to read the snowfall and qpf maps.
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Post by RyanD on Feb 15, 2021 12:03:53 GMT -6
2.25" snow in protected area, 2 on the yard table, snow box is useless That sure seems low Just eyeballing it looks like 3-4" but the drifting of new snow makes is hard to measure. I live more towards the south side of Waterloo though since we moved last summer. I'm sure we have 5" total counting the old snow.
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Post by RyanD on Feb 14, 2021 22:27:28 GMT -6
I think it’s way too early to look at midweek. Let’s enjoy tonight and tomorrow and see what it does. midweek system is further SE on GFSv16. Not a complete miss but not a direct hit either. Would add maybe 5" here in Waterloo. I had hopes that the midweek system would be the "bigger" of the two and it still could be but looking less likely now. Many people have been asking about it and I'm only briefly mentioning it and I'm not putting much detail into it. It is definitely not too early given we are only talking 3-4 days but it is too early to get into specifics I suppose.
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Post by RyanD on Feb 14, 2021 22:12:19 GMT -6
midweek system is further SE on GFSv16. Not a complete miss but not a direct hit either. Would add maybe 5" here in Waterloo. I had hopes that the midweek system would be the "bigger" of the two and it still could be but looking less likely now.
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Post by RyanD on Feb 14, 2021 19:09:48 GMT -6
I filtered through hourly observations of temperature, weather, and precip going back to 1945 and compared with daily snowfall summary. Unless I missed something I did not find a single event in which we received accumulating snow of more than 1" while temperatures were below 10F. Note that the hourly obs record can be a bit sketchy at times; just because I didn't find it doesn't mean it didn't happen. I hope everyone appreciates the rarity of the event that is expected tonight/tomorrow. If KSTL were to report several inches of snowfall under 10F I'm guesstimating that would be something like a 1-50 to 1-100 year event. I'm guessing 6+" and the recurrence interval is probably closer to 100 years. I wonder what the records show for early Jan. 1991 or maybe it was 1992. There was a very shallow arctic airmass in place here with waves of overrunning precip. It was mostly sleet and freezing rain with temps in the single digits but I remember a convective cell overwhelmed the warm wedge over STL and dumped 4" of snow on an hour. Pretty sure it was in the single digits when that occurred but I suppose it may have been above 10.
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Post by RyanD on Feb 14, 2021 18:59:29 GMT -6
Really snowing good here in Waterloo. Already some minor drifting. Roads are mostly covered. Next 24 hours could be epic and if we can add something midweek this has the potential to be the best stretch of winter weather in this forum's history.
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Post by RyanD on Feb 13, 2021 18:40:30 GMT -6
about 97% of Tx is under a winter storm warning. Rare indeed. Also, must be nice lol. Yeah, but what's their threshold? I bet down in Houston it is for anything over an inch lol
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Post by RyanD on Feb 13, 2021 16:49:49 GMT -6
This place is just unreal at times. Some people are never happy. It is as if some of us were expecting an '82 redux. Anyway, I think 4-6" is reasonable for my neck of the woods and the midweek system is still very much in play. I would not at all be surprised to see some places with a double digit snowpack by next Friday. The potential for a lot more is still there too. I feel the v16 could be on to something too for next week (both storms). Its consistency can't be denied and it has some support from the old GFS and the GEM.
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Post by RyanD on Feb 13, 2021 1:43:01 GMT -6
How does the Wednesday storm look overall? I know one storm at a time and we probably need to get Monday's event out of the way for the clearest picture. Are there any solutions that still support a significant system? From what I saw the Wed-Thurs storm still is very much alive. Looked great on both GFS's and the GEM. Looks like the Euro and Ukie both have it too though I think they are more SE with the core moisture.
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Post by RyanD on Feb 13, 2021 0:19:30 GMT -6
LOL, now I know how Snowman feels 920 Looks like Kuchera shows close to what I had guessed for my neck of the woods, maybe 8-9" here.
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Post by RyanD on Feb 13, 2021 0:17:26 GMT -6
EURO looks good still for Monday though it's a bit SE with wave #2. I don't subscribe to Pivotal Pro so not sure what Kuchera ratios show but 10:1 shows 5" in Waterloo. That should translate to 7-8" if not a bit more given the high ratios.
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Post by RyanD on Feb 12, 2021 1:01:29 GMT -6
Looks like all the models minus the Euro show the midweek storm as well. The EURO suppresses it so it shows the lowest total snowfall by the end of next week. Pretty much they all show double digit potential for the snowpack with the GFS's showing the highest and the EURO the lowest. Split the difference between the models and you still get a heck of a week of snow for our neck of the woods.
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Post by RyanD on Feb 11, 2021 22:39:24 GMT -6
Along with a boat load of snow, the v16 also has a major ice storm for the SE half of the area with the midweek system. That would be something Yeah I noticed that too. Shows very heavy (purple) snow SE of town in my neck of the woods translating into a few hours of ice as the system pulls away.
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Post by RyanD on Feb 11, 2021 22:38:13 GMT -6
both GFSv15 and v16 shows 20" on the ground in Waterloo next Friday. Lock that in Honestly, even half of that would be amazing!
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Post by RyanD on Feb 11, 2021 22:33:07 GMT -6
Midweek system looks even better for STL and points SE. Kurchera shows 20" on the ground in Waterloo by next Friday. I'll be happy with half of that!! Looks like a sharp cutoff to the NW.
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Post by RyanD on Feb 11, 2021 22:04:31 GMT -6
yep, shows most of us with .4 qpf through Tuesday so 6-8" looks like a good forecast with the high ratios. Now let's hope we can add to those totals on Wed.....
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Post by RyanD on Feb 11, 2021 17:02:20 GMT -6
geesh, Wed system looks even more impressive than the Mon system on the 18z GFS down here SE of STL. Pretty sharp gradient on the north side of STL on that run. Would drop a foot down here. Lock it in!! LOL That's after 3-5 inches on Monday.
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Post by RyanD on Feb 10, 2021 22:38:56 GMT -6
Gfs and icon both have another large system on its heels for Wednesday. That would be something. Weren’t we discussing a short while ago about like 2 or 3 big snows in a row back in ‘93? yes, but they were about 2 weeks apart in Feb of '93 but it was nuts. Got 11" and 13" from both storms. The first storm was hyped up as the next "82" which was a huge mistake. The second storm ended up a bit better but was less hyped. What sucked was all of the snow from the first storm had melted before the 2nd one hit.
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Post by RyanD on Feb 8, 2021 23:33:16 GMT -6
Borderline heavy snow in Waterloo. Somewhere between 1-2". Hard to tell with the layer of ice from the freezing drizzle earlier. Pure winter outside. Have some blowing snow as well from the rooftops.
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Post by RyanD on Feb 8, 2021 21:11:12 GMT -6
Well it has lived up to expectations down here so far. I think we will see a warning criteria storm within the next 7-10 days. Next weekend has tons of potential.
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Post by RyanD on Feb 8, 2021 20:34:57 GMT -6
Coming down pretty good right now. Looks to be mostly snow.
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Post by RyanD on Feb 8, 2021 16:50:35 GMT -6
Been a nice snowy day here in Waterloo. Ground is covered albeit in only maybe a half inch to 3/4ths inch in snow but it looks pretty. Still snowing very lightly. I'm very interested in this weekend. The GFS's consistency can't be ignored.
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Post by RyanD on Feb 8, 2021 13:56:13 GMT -6
Snowing nicely here now with a decent amount of large flakes mixed in.
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Post by RyanD on Feb 8, 2021 12:51:36 GMT -6
Steady light graupel in Waterloo. Ground already dusted over.
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Post by RyanD on Feb 6, 2021 0:43:59 GMT -6
They'll be snow tomorrow. I think 1-3" is a safe bet. Next week we should see snow on snow. I bet we see a watch/warning at least once in the next 2 weeks.
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Post by RyanD on Feb 3, 2021 16:38:59 GMT -6
Wow this place is fragile. We really need a snowstorm. I can't imagine it'll rain or we'll get warm any time soon given the magnitude of the arctic push. Models are going to be all over the place with all moving pieces and the wholesale pattern change. They'll be plenty of chances for snow over the next 2 weeks and I bet one of them is a good snow too. Don't write off the Monday system either. It wasn't that long ago it was missing us to the south then last night it was a huge snow on the Euro and now the Euro shows an ice storm. I bet we get a few inches this weekend followed by a good snow next week. Just my guess.
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Post by RyanD on Jan 31, 2021 20:01:42 GMT -6
Just curious... What do you all use as your handy weather radar? I assume you all use an app. I use MyRadar Pro and I think it’s great. But if there are better ones out there, I’m curious what you all use. Radarscope. Nothing else is even close but it isn't free. I think it is $10 but the Pro version is a yearly fee I believe.
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Post by RyanD on Jan 29, 2021 23:30:18 GMT -6
What a night. Let's keep this rolling. Arenado to the Cards, Illinois beats Iowa and GFS prints out a crusher. I have a bad feeling it'll be severe storms instead of snow however even if it is I think we will cash in soon after.
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