|
|
Post by STGOutdoors on Apr 3, 2018 8:22:11 GMT -6
It seems there will be a broken line of a few storms for our area until they get a little further east. Where those cells hit though they will mean business. Potentially bad timing with schools letting out and such.
|
|
|
|
Post by WEAXWATCHER on Apr 3, 2018 8:22:24 GMT -6
Have growing concerns about potential for significant severe for areas southeast of metro. STL. HRRR is emphatic that warm air will surge up into the southeast metro today...with simulated radar showing a broken line of super cell like storms with multiple UH tracks forming...within a shear rich environment. Sig tors ans super cell values...along with various shear parameters support severe...possibly tornadic storms...roughly near and southeast of the Kaskaskia River after 2pm. Chris, I sent you a message asking your thoughts on a timeline. Thank you for posting this. This answers that question, I think. |
|
|
|
Post by bellevillewxguy on Apr 3, 2018 8:24:01 GMT -6
Wxguy, Did you have a storm report from last night? It woke me up but i was too lazy to go look. Same as woogie had, so felt no need to post a separate report. Had some pea sized hail for like 30 seconds than just rain with thunder. Had one nasty close call with a lightning bolt as it was departing that scared the heck out of my dogs and me as well. Couldn't of been more than a couple hundred yards away. Other than that wasn't as impressive as I was expecting per the radar. |
|
|
|
Post by bdgwx on Apr 3, 2018 8:38:26 GMT -6
12Z HREF hasn't finished processing yet, but it too shows UH tracks in our area. The SPC may need to make another shift west with the risk outlooks. One mitigating factor is that low level shear (0-1 SRH) appears to wane a bit as the day goes on. However, as coz already pointed out, lapse rates are quite extreme and will remain so throughout the day and MLCAPEs could rise int the mid 1000's south of STL.   |
|
|
|
Post by mosue56 on Apr 3, 2018 8:41:55 GMT -6
Chris, What constitutes se of metro? Illinois area or in MO?
|
|
|
|
Post by bdgwx on Apr 3, 2018 8:47:28 GMT -6
Not to detract from the severe weather potential today, but last night's ensembles runs actually looked decent in terms of snow later this week even for Union.
|
|
|
|
Post by BRTNWXMAN on Apr 3, 2018 8:52:54 GMT -6
It's going to be tough for any significant surface-based instability to develop this far west before the cap is broken and the front sweeps through but S/E IL into S IN are in a prime spot for nasty storms later this afternoon. Model and satellite trends do support a narrow window for clearing around lunchtime so a few large hailers and isolated severe gusts are possible further west along and E of the river as storms develop on top of us before becoming rooted near the surface further E into IL where a tornado and very large(2"+) hail threat exists.
|
|
|
|
Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Apr 3, 2018 8:53:13 GMT -6
Not to detract from the severe weather potential today, but last night's ensembles runs actually looked decent in terms of snow later this week even for Union. 12z nam looks pretty epic... |
|
|
|
Post by BRTNWXMAN on Apr 3, 2018 8:59:56 GMT -6
Not to detract from the severe weather potential today, but last night's ensembles runs actually looked decent in terms of snow later this week even for Union. That's what I was thinking...the N trend with the last system is encouraging given the current suppressed look. I'm thinking some spots that missed out on the last one could be more in-line this time around. But seriously...where was this pattern in DJF? |
|
|
|
Post by weatherj on Apr 3, 2018 9:08:29 GMT -6
Seems as though I'm in the higher threat. I'll be on guard, though it looks like the greatest risk will be just east of here. Still, concerned over here out near I-57.
|
|
|
|
Post by Snowstorm920 on Apr 3, 2018 9:17:19 GMT -6
This is a fun time of year. Thundersnow and ice to severe weather and back to potential wintry weather. But seriously where was this pattern even a month ago
|
|
|
|
Post by STGOutdoors on Apr 3, 2018 9:18:14 GMT -6
12Z Nam is more amplified with a stronger system. Crazy that we are within 3 days of a potentially decent snowfall in April. It would be nice for everyone to have some fun with it.
|
|
|
|
Post by Chris Higgins on Apr 3, 2018 9:18:19 GMT -6
Weax... I'll send you a response shortly... but hopefully this helps. Just posted this to facebook... Clearing is progressing up I-44 toward metro STL ahead of the front and temps are jumping quickly within it. That will help quite a bit I believe..   |
|
|
|
Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Apr 3, 2018 9:19:06 GMT -6
Wxguy, Did you have a storm report from last night? It woke me up but i was too lazy to go look. Same as woogie had, so felt no need to post a separate report. Had some pea sized hail for like 30 seconds than just rain with thunder. Had one nasty close call with a lightning bolt as it was departing that scared the heck out of my dogs and me as well. Couldn't of been more than a couple hundred yards away. Other than that wasn't as impressive as I was expecting per the radar. That is almost exactly the same thing I had, including the close lightning strike, except that I had the pea sized hail twice for 30 seconds about 5 minutes apart. |
|
|
|
Post by STGOutdoors on Apr 3, 2018 9:20:52 GMT -6
If these low level showers continue to develop through the late morning and early afternoon ahead of the main line I would think our severe risk will be decreased significantly.
|
|
|
|
Post by WEAXWATCHER on Apr 3, 2018 9:20:56 GMT -6
Weax... I'll send you a response shortly... but hopefully this helps. Just posted this to facebook... Clearing is progressing up I-44 toward metro STL ahead of the front and temps are jumping quickly within it. That will help quite a bit I believe.. Thank you! |
|
|
|
Post by BRTNWXMAN on Apr 3, 2018 9:25:36 GMT -6
I'm surprised the SPC doesn't even mention hail threat in their disco...guessing relatively low CAPE is the limiting factor there but I'm not sure that will be the case given the extremely steep mid-level lapse rates.
|
|
|
|
Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Apr 3, 2018 9:31:05 GMT -6
Starting to get some breaks in the clouds here. Not sure if it will be enough to get any substantial lift going to develop storms
|
|
|
|
Post by BRTNWXMAN on Apr 3, 2018 9:34:54 GMT -6
Tornado threat is definitely there if parcels become rooted near the surface quickly enough...0-3km SRH of 4-500 and 0-1 bulk shear of 40kts.
|
|
|
|
Post by WEAXWATCHER on Apr 3, 2018 9:37:53 GMT -6
Tornado threat is definitely there if parcels become rooted near the surface quickly enough...0-3km SRH of 4-500 and 0-1 bulk shear of 40kts. Yikes! |
|
|
|
Post by guyfromhecker on Apr 3, 2018 9:54:23 GMT -6
Hopefully I get out of Dodge before they get here. I'm currently in Carmi and you can feel the humidity. I still have to go to Evansville and then head back. My guess is with the way things are going my best bet of hitting something severe will be along I-64 as I approach Mount Vernon later this afternoon
|
|
|
|
Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Apr 3, 2018 9:58:03 GMT -6
12z gfs is nice...
This us fun
|
|
|
|
Post by bdgwx on Apr 3, 2018 10:00:02 GMT -6
12z gfs is nice... This us fun Totally. Where's Friv? |
|
|
|
Post by STGOutdoors on Apr 3, 2018 10:01:04 GMT -6
Yea so who's in on the 12z GFS with me? Wow. Time of day even on our side with this one and we are 3 days out.
|
|
|
|
Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Apr 3, 2018 10:03:05 GMT -6
This run is ridiculous.
Mid 20s and -10 850s with heavy snow lol.
|
|
|
|
Post by bdgwx on Apr 3, 2018 10:08:35 GMT -6
There is some serious isentropic lift going on in central MO on that run.
|
|
|
|
Post by bear1 on Apr 3, 2018 10:11:22 GMT -6
Hard to believe there's still a chance of snow after going outside & the sun is shining & 68° right now?!
|
|
|
|
Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Apr 3, 2018 10:13:15 GMT -6
12z gem looks good.
12z gfs also shows more snow Sunday lol.
Dream run.
|
|
|
|
Post by red12 Hillsboro,mo on Apr 3, 2018 10:14:48 GMT -6
Looks like things are starting to build around Columbia,mo
|
|
|
|
Post by toddatfarmington on Apr 3, 2018 10:29:36 GMT -6
Moderate Risk upgrade coming from SPC
|
|
