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Post by bdgwx on Apr 3, 2018 16:48:07 GMT -6
And here are the 12Z snowfall swaths from the EPS and GEFS. The usual caveats apply...it's a 10:1 ratio and it's an ensemble that's averaging a bunch of members together so there will be some blurring of the snowfall. I still think anywhere from northern MO to northern AR is still in the envelop of possibilities, but as you can see it's the area along and south of I-70, but north of the MO/AR border is the area of interest. And this only through Saturday morning. It does not include the possibility snow on Sunday/Monday.   |
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Apr 3, 2018 17:14:16 GMT -6
Overall agreement with the big boys. Makes me feel comfortable with my earlier assertion that i think the best snowfall chances will end up right across the metro. Of course accums discussion can be deferred a few days but with the intensity and air temps, i feel like there wld be impact friday night into saturday with this.
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gonefishin - WashMO
Junior Forecaster
Washington, Franklin County, MO
Posts: 491 
Snowfall Events: 2013-2014: A lot!
2014-2015: If you forecast it, it will come!
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Post by gonefishin - WashMO on Apr 3, 2018 18:14:39 GMT -6
Facebook is blowing up with the Weather Channel forecast. Not gonna mention what it says on this forum. Amateurs!
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Apr 3, 2018 18:23:52 GMT -6
Youre not going to make us tune to the weather or not channel are you? Come on...save us from evil of tuning in and spill it!
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Apr 3, 2018 18:54:28 GMT -6
The mid-level frontogenesis that is being modeled across the region Friday night is absolutely ridiculous looking...like almost head-on collision of wind across the baroclinic zone. That should lead to banded structures of intense snowfall. And I'm guessing CSI/-EPV could aid in very efficient snow production again...haven't looked at BUFKIT or sounding analysis.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Apr 3, 2018 19:00:11 GMT -6
So any truth to the rumor that Bob Clubbs weather facebook page photo bombed a certain tv station live shot?
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Apr 3, 2018 19:13:10 GMT -6
The mid-level frontogenesis that is being modeled across the region Friday night is absolutely ridiculous looking...like almost head-on collision of wind across the baroclinic zone. That should lead to banded structures of intense snowfall. And I'm guessing CSI/-EPV could aid in very efficient snow production again...haven't looked at BUFKIT or sounding analysis. So hamsters are expected or too far out to tell? |
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Post by landscaper on Apr 3, 2018 19:26:39 GMT -6
I don’t know what model the weather channel uses but it’s actually a good forecast at this point. 1-3 Friday night and another 1-3” on Sunday. My NWS forecast has a 50% chance of rain and possibly some snow Friday night and rain likely on Sunday. If the models continue the way they’re they will need to once again drastically change their forecast.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Apr 3, 2018 19:32:02 GMT -6
I don’t know what model the weather channel uses but it’s actually a good forecast at this point. 1-3 Friday night and another 1-3” on Sunday. My NWS forecast has a 50% chance of rain and possibly some snow Friday night and rain likely on Sunday. If the models continue the way they’re they will need to once again drastically change their forecast. That weather channel forecast is entirely reasonable at the moment. NWS will have light accumulations possible for both days as well if the 00z runs hold. This thing is only 3 days out. Wording will increase drastically with good runs tonight. |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Apr 3, 2018 19:38:17 GMT -6
Let's please make this one happen. I have big time spring fever but the last three winters have left quite a void.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Apr 3, 2018 19:38:53 GMT -6
18z gefs looks REALLY good lol (around 5 inches right through the heart of the metro).
And Cardinals looks like a really good team today.
Offense is legit, young pitching was dominant, bullpen is loaded. Fun times.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Apr 3, 2018 19:52:32 GMT -6
Yeah i agree with the twc forecast based on everything. 1 to 3 looks reasonable. The disco already said accums possible and they also indicated sunday could bring addl accums. So they seem impressed. If it were me, i wld want the benefit of another days worth of model runs though before putting the accumulation verbiage in...like maybe tomorrow nights pkg...that way you get another suite of model guidance by using the 12z suite in your equation....plus id want to see pops at least 70 for that mention...but its not me.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Apr 3, 2018 19:55:57 GMT -6
You know, this cld go to moderate accums if theres convection. This may be more appropriate leaving the public wondering until confidence is high enough.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Apr 3, 2018 19:58:42 GMT -6
I know TWC gets a bad rep in the weather community, but they have cleaned it up recently IMO. Their forecast seem to have gotten much more accurate than in the past. There are times ive seen them out forecast the NWS. Not saying you should trust them over the NWS, but id feel comfortable making plans based on a TWC forecast.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Apr 3, 2018 20:00:37 GMT -6
The 18z gem was nice as well.
00z nam will be out in the next half hour or so.
Then we can laugh at its insanely convective solution.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Apr 3, 2018 20:05:59 GMT -6
The 18z gem was nice as well. 00z nam will be out in the next half hour or so. Then we can laugh at its insanely convective solution. And northward solution leaving us southerners singing in the rain again! |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Apr 3, 2018 20:13:39 GMT -6
The 18z gem was nice as well. 00z nam will be out in the next half hour or so. Then we can laugh at its insanely convective solution. And northward solution leaving us southerners singing in the rain again! or sleet... which is a distinct possibility. Need to watch that high up warm layer again around 700mb. |
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Post by ams3389 on Apr 3, 2018 20:23:39 GMT -6
Lots of wind in high ridge... lost power. Still out
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Apr 3, 2018 20:25:07 GMT -6
And northward solution leaving us southerners singing in the rain again! or sleet... which is a distinct possibility. Need to watch that high up warm layer again around 700mb. Only looks like an issue for the far southern counties unless you buy the 18z nam and it's northern outlier solution. |
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Post by red12 Hillsboro,mo on Apr 3, 2018 20:38:23 GMT -6
Lots of wind in high ridge... lost power. Still out We lost our power in imperial today also but it was on about 5pm today |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Apr 3, 2018 20:46:32 GMT -6
00z nam is perfect.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Apr 3, 2018 20:50:23 GMT -6
This is what all those sheared out systems were supposed to be this winter but now we have moisture to work with. Is there any connection/feedback regarding ground moisture? I know drought breeds more drought.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Apr 3, 2018 20:52:43 GMT -6
Hopefully the models don't fold like the Cards just did lol
Glad they play 162.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Apr 3, 2018 20:56:55 GMT -6
NAM is so good it almost made me forget the last two pitches of the cardinals game
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Post by nascarfan999 on Apr 3, 2018 21:00:42 GMT -6
Offense is legit, young pitching was dominant, bullpen is loaded. Fun times. Normally I would say 2 out of 3 isn't bad, but...yeah, not fun times. |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Apr 3, 2018 21:04:45 GMT -6
Offense is legit, young pitching was dominant, bullpen is loaded. Fun times. Normally I would say 2 out of 3 isn't bad, but...yeah, not fun times. Can we revisit this at the end of April...May...June...July...August...September...October? Sample size of 1 will make even a genius look dumb...and I'm no genius. Kenley Jansen (He of the legendary Dodgers) got blown up twice already. I bet you would still take him. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Apr 3, 2018 21:05:56 GMT -6
Offense is legit, young pitching was dominant, bullpen is loaded. Fun times. Normally I would say 2 out of 3 isn't bad, but...yeah, not fun times. Holland cant get here soon enough. Heres the NAM snowfall map assuming 10:1 ratios. Ratios might start lower than that but end up slightly higher so this isnt a bad compromise  |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Apr 3, 2018 21:07:08 GMT -6
Wouldn't it be something if the first Winter Storm Warning in several years was issued in April! Less than a month shy of the all time record for latest accumulating snow in St. Louis?
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Apr 3, 2018 21:09:26 GMT -6
Worth noting that the heavy southern band in the above picture is likely sleet contaminated as Chris alluded to earlier (Nam is still the strongest and most north influencing the warmer temps aloft and at the surface).
Thus, that band is probably closer to 3 inches than 6 inches.
Now, the one through the heart of the metro, well that is legit based on this run.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Apr 3, 2018 21:11:56 GMT -6
Worth noting that the heavy southern band in the above picture is likely sleet contaminated as Chris alluded to earlier (Nam is still the strongest and most north influencing the warmer temps aloft and at the surface). Thus, that band is probably closer to 3 inches than 6 inches. Very possible some sleet gets in there. Verbatim though the NAM has a very wet and very heavy snow in that southern band |
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