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Post by jmg378s on Apr 3, 2018 21:13:04 GMT -6
Somewhat surprisingly, I found only 1 instance (April 5-6, 1971) in the record of a major snowstorm (6+") at KSTL in the month of April. Empirically speaking that's on the order of a 1-100 year occurrence.
Edit: The snowfall total on that date was 6.5".
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Apr 3, 2018 21:13:17 GMT -6
Man these models!! Crazy!!
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Post by cozpregon on Apr 3, 2018 21:16:53 GMT -6
Actually closes off a 700 low just to the south of the metro. South of that... would have to think sleet would be a big factor.
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Post by jmg378s on Apr 3, 2018 21:17:13 GMT -6
If that were to happen, BIG if, that would be truly historic.
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Post by bdgwx on Apr 3, 2018 21:29:44 GMT -6
I can confirm that 1971 was the only occurrence of a bona-fide winter storm in April. The last time St. Louis had any meaningful accumulations in April was 4/10/1997 with 4.1".
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Post by nascarfan999 on Apr 3, 2018 21:35:51 GMT -6
Normally I would say 2 out of 3 isn't bad, but...yeah, not fun times. Can we revisit this at the end of April...May...June...July...August...September...October? Sample size of 1 will make even a genius look dumb...and I'm no genius. Kenley Jansen (He of the legendary Dodgers) got blown up twice already. I bet you would still take him. My response was solely directed to them looking good tonight. While I'm not a huge fan of the current roster, I think Holland really transforms the bullpen and by freeing up Reyes for the rotation it provides better insurance there than we have today. Now let's bring on April snow #2. |
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Apr 3, 2018 21:37:50 GMT -6
Worth noting that the heavy southern band in the above picture is likely sleet contaminated as Chris alluded to earlier (Nam is still the strongest and most north influencing the warmer temps aloft and at the surface). Thus, that band is probably closer to 3 inches than 6 inches. Now, the one through the heart of the metro, well that is legit based on this run. Now see, i thought it was 1) the snow hole over union, and 2) the arch effect. Lol |
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Apr 3, 2018 21:51:59 GMT -6
There is tremendous moisture conversion along the boundary where the greatest lift takes place.
The WAA is decently perpendicular to the CAA.
We don't want it to be to strong and wrapped up.
But a little more pronounced moving more Northerly than Easterly and we could end up with a decently wide band of snow that is driven as a bisect of WAA deep moisture driven lift and another lift maximum from very powerful convergence.
This gives the potential for a 3-5 hour band of snow currently along the 44/64 corridors and just South that drops 6-10" of snow with 0.75" qpf.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Apr 3, 2018 21:55:15 GMT -6
Gfs remains locked in.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Apr 3, 2018 21:56:25 GMT -6
The 00z gfs is solid.
Certainly colder than the nam, but with the better moisture both west and south of 70.
I'll take it.
Edit: Also has the last couple hours being close to 15-1 fluff. Mid 20s at the surface with -10C 850 temps.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Apr 3, 2018 22:01:50 GMT -6
00z gem is a heavy hitter for STL.
NICE!
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Apr 3, 2018 22:07:58 GMT -6
00z gfs proceeds to drop another 2-4 inches of snow Sunday evening for the metro.
Would be April Snow-on-Snow...
00z gem is further north with the Sunday storm.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Apr 3, 2018 22:29:03 GMT -6
00z gfs proceeds to drop another 2-4 inches of snow Sunday evening for the metro. Would be April Snow-on-Snow... 00z gem is further north with the Sunday storm. Would be enough to turn this Winter to an A in my book. LOLz that it took until April to happen. has the up side of bringing a lot of snow but without the back breaking shoveling which is a win. |
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Post by RyanD on Apr 3, 2018 22:33:14 GMT -6
We had a big snow by April terms here in Waterloo in 2011 I believe. It was around 4" and fell in the morning and was all melted by midday. I recall it well because we had to drive in it to Columbia IL to visit my friend who's wife just gave birth to their first child. I seem to recall another April snow in maybe 2013 that also had thunder though I never saw the lightning. April snows are typically very rare here. I remember the 1997 snow very well because it was not forecast (can thank evap cooling for that one) and I was heading to SIUC that morning and was putting my books into my car and there was a huge flash of lightning so it startled me so badly that I hit my head of the roof of the car trying to look up. My wife's recently deceased grandma often talked of a huge April snow that she got stuck in on the way to work on the 70's. I bet it was the '71 storm which oddly enough was 6 months before I was born. Of the few times I've seen thundersnow, all occurred in April except '82 which I didn't actually see but heard during the "blizzard".
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Post by Snowman99 on Apr 3, 2018 22:44:47 GMT -6
Here at the hotel I'm known as the 'weather guy'. The girl on before me was on the phone with a potential guest who had reservation for this weekend. Right when I walked in she asked me if I thought it was going to snow this weekend, I said 'yes'. How much? "Ask me Friday". "somewhere more than flurries and less than a foot"
So I'm on record.
This better happen. Lol
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Post by Chris Higgins on Apr 3, 2018 22:48:14 GMT -6
We had a big snow by April terms here in Waterloo in 2011 I believe. It was around 4" and fell in the morning and was all melted by midday. I recall it well because we had to drive in it to Columbia IL to visit my friend who's wife just gave birth to their first child. I seem to recall another April snow in maybe 2013 that also had thunder though I never saw the lightning. April snows are typically very rare here. I remember the 1997 snow very well because it was not forecast (can thank evap cooling for that one) and I was heading to SIUC that morning and was putting my books into my car and there was a huge flash of lightning so it startled me so badly that I hit my head of the roof of the car trying to look up. My wife's recently deceased grandma often talked of a huge April snow that she got stuck in on the way to work on the 70's. I bet it was the '71 storm which oddly enough was 6 months before I was born. Of the few times I've seen thundersnow, all occurred in April except '82 which I didn't actually see but heard during the "blizzard". I also remember the 1997 surprise. I was only part-time back then so I was supplementing my income by umpiring college baseball. I was supposed to work a doubleheader at either East Central College in Union...or Mineral Area College...and it I was literally scraping snow off my car to head down to my game because they didn't get any precip until later in the day. Talk about a weird feeling. |
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Post by RyanD on Apr 3, 2018 23:03:26 GMT -6
In the 1997 April snow, I left Red Bud and drove south on a snowpacked Rt 3 but by the time I got to Carbondale they had almost nothing.
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Apr 3, 2018 23:18:45 GMT -6
I was in highschool during the April 97 snow.
We ended up with 4-5" in Smithton... pretty much all melted by the time school was let out.
The model consensus right now is fantastic for this potential snow event.
Even tho it's April we have to consider the pattern and it's stability right now.
The air mass that is set to flood towards us s extremely cold for this time of year.
And is traversing over a snowpack way above normal in depth and coverage.
This helps maintain this cold by severely diminishing heat transfer cause of the snow albedo effect.
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Apr 4, 2018 0:10:59 GMT -6
We had a big snow by April terms here in Waterloo in 2011 I believe. It was around 4" and fell in the morning and was all melted by midday. I recall it well because we had to drive in it to Columbia IL to visit my friend who's wife just gave birth to their first child. I seem to recall another April snow in maybe 2013 that also had thunder though I never saw the lightning. April snows are typically very rare here. I remember the 1997 snow very well because it was not forecast (can thank evap cooling for that one) and I was heading to SIUC that morning and was putting my books into my car and there was a huge flash of lightning so it startled me so badly that I hit my head of the roof of the car trying to look up. My wife's recently deceased grandma often talked of a huge April snow that she got stuck in on the way to work on the 70's. I bet it was the '71 storm which oddly enough was 6 months before I was born. Of the few times I've seen thundersnow, all occurred in April except '82 which I didn't actually see but heard during the "blizzard". I also remember the 1997 surprise. I was only part-time back then so I was supplementing my income by umpiring college baseball. I was supposed to work a doubleheader at either East Central College in Union...or Mineral Area College...and it I was literally scraping snow off my car to head down to my game because they didn't get any precip until later in the day. Talk about a weird feeling. I recall the 1971 snow as it was the only snow day we got that school year. It was the day before the Easter break so it made the decision for a snow day easier. There was also a significant April snow in 1980. I graduated college that April and the snow came a week or so after that on a Sunday nigh. I was working midnights on Sundays at a motel and got to watch it come down. |
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Post by Snowman99 on Apr 4, 2018 0:44:52 GMT -6
Well the euro kinda sucks. Has a dusting here, with 2-4 in southern MO, then way north for Sunday.
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Post by Snowman99 on Apr 4, 2018 2:17:40 GMT -6
The EPS are pretty close to the 12z, so better than the operational.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Apr 4, 2018 2:46:42 GMT -6
6z nam hits south of 70 hard.
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Post by Snowman99 on Apr 4, 2018 2:50:01 GMT -6
6z Nam is good. NWS going 1-2 some areas 2-3 right now, depends how much moisture gets involved.
Interested to see what Mr. Chris thinks.
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Post by maddogchief on Apr 4, 2018 5:16:13 GMT -6
I think a little further north by 50 Miles is probably pretty close to the actual evolution.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Apr 4, 2018 5:27:49 GMT -6
The only accumulating snows i saw were early 80s on 4/16...cant recall the specific year thinking 83 or 84. And the surprise wake up in 97. So we r due. With the models kind of flip flopping, thinking this may not be quite as impressive as 97 but we will see.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Apr 4, 2018 5:49:13 GMT -6
Surprised to see accums called out...around 2 inches in my county. 70 pops. Looks like confidence is increasing and i wld say we are looking at a low end advisory event...not bad for april.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Apr 4, 2018 5:55:21 GMT -6
Wpc has 10% prob of 4 inches for all but southern mo thru saturday. Higher (40%) in oh valley mainly northern ky. Then for sunday...10 prob for northern mo of exceeding .25 liq equivalent....this is mainly north of metro.
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Post by Tilawn on Apr 4, 2018 7:04:23 GMT -6
I can’t remember what year anymore but do remember mowing 15 clients lawns during the day and then plowing about 5-6” of snow off their driveway and sidewalks that same night in April. That was a long but profitable day.
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Post by Tilawn on Apr 4, 2018 7:06:30 GMT -6
By the way does this April snow count towards this past winter totals or are we going to be ahead for next year already?? 🤔😳😬😊
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Apr 4, 2018 7:14:09 GMT -6
6z gefs and 6z gem looked really good for STL.
Sref plume mean is already approaching 3 inches...
Lets get it.
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