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Post by John G -west belleville on Apr 4, 2018 7:53:27 GMT -6
By the way does this April snow count towards this past winter totals or are we going to be ahead for next year already?? 🤔😳😬😊 I believe snow year runs July 1 through June 30. Thus we are still in the 17-18 snow year |
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Apr 4, 2018 7:59:36 GMT -6
By the way does this April snow count towards this past winter totals or are we going to be ahead for next year already?? 🤔😳😬😊 I believe snow year runs July 1 through June 30. Thus we are still in the 17-18 snow year That is correct. Officially we are up to 7.1 inches of snow for the year |
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Post by Tilawn on Apr 4, 2018 8:13:49 GMT -6
I’m not gonna lie and I don’t get cold very easily…But it is downright cold this morning working with this breeze and no sunshine
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Post by bdgwx on Apr 4, 2018 8:14:49 GMT -6
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Apr 4, 2018 8:16:53 GMT -6
I’m not gonna lie and I don’t get cold very easily…But it is downright cold this morning working with this breeze and no sunshine Parkas, hats, and gloves in April, yeah that's pretty nuts when we should be in t-shirts and shorts and flip flops by now at least on average (Ok a bit of an overstatement but still hoodies at best and jeans). Muscle shirt season is supposed to kick off in May but between my weight-loss and this laggy Spring it could be June or even July until I can dig them out without feeling frigid or looking out of place... :/ |
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Apr 4, 2018 8:24:14 GMT -6
12Z NAM getting into range of the Friday/Saturday event.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Apr 4, 2018 8:26:47 GMT -6
Also not too surprised that the CFS monthlies have really cut back on the heat this Summer now showing only average temps at best with better likelihood of being a bit below normal only by about .5 to 1*C but still impressive for Summer when the CFS usually loves to really toast us. Summer looking stormy/wet now as well.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Apr 4, 2018 8:39:20 GMT -6
As a southerner the 12z NAM concerns me.
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Post by landscaper on Apr 4, 2018 8:41:22 GMT -6
It definitely shifted north some
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Apr 4, 2018 8:42:13 GMT -6
12z nam is good.
Although, it is clear there will be a minimum between two very intense bands.
Also, nam shows the sleet contamination concern for the southern most band once again.
On the other hand, it brings deep cold in for STL toward the end of the event with SLRs approaching 15-1.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Apr 4, 2018 8:51:29 GMT -6
Nam makes it look like a more intense version of Easter Sunday. Let's hope it is too far north and amplified.
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Post by cardsnweather on Apr 4, 2018 8:52:59 GMT -6
12z nam is good. Although, it is clear there will be a minimum between two very intense bands. Also, nam shows the sleet contamination concern for the southern most band once again. On the other hand, it brings deep cold in for STL toward the end of the event with SLRs approaching 15-1. Yep. This is a system where the model snowfall forecasts are going to really struggle. That was a good run. We are inside 60 hours which is crazy. |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Apr 4, 2018 9:05:58 GMT -6
Nam 3k looks like an absolute blitz of snow.
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Post by ComoEsJn on Apr 4, 2018 9:14:01 GMT -6
April 1997 snow, I was a senior in high school. When the snow started pouring, we were working on the school newspaper in our journalism classroom, and we were due to get our "club" picture taken. Instead of doing it in the room, we decided to take the "Spring Newspaper" photo out in the snowstorm. That storm is forever memorialized in the Hazelwood West 1997 yearbook, haha.
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Post by bdgwx on Apr 4, 2018 9:19:40 GMT -6
The NAM shows a lot of CAA below 850 and a lot of WAA above 850. As a result the atmosphere gets into a weird configuration where a warm ribbon of air starts to form on the north side of the sagging front at hour 57. By hour 60 you have northerly WAA creating additional lift in conjunction with frontogenesis and convergence on the north side of the front (I know weird...right). That lined up with lowering heights and being in the RER of the jet streak explains why the NAM goes apes**t on central MO in such a short amount of time. The unusual configuration with northerly WAA on the north side of a front is a self destructive process so it doesn't last long. Being so far out I doubt it plays out this way, but who knows. That is one massive shot of cold air undercutting warm air and since it's April maybe we'll see things we don't typically see.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Apr 4, 2018 9:20:50 GMT -6
Interesting disco out of pah. Some good history for Paducsh and Evansville.
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Post by bdgwx on Apr 4, 2018 9:45:41 GMT -6
I should probably point out that the UKMET was pretty far south with snow swath maxima; probably along US-60 in southern MO.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Apr 4, 2018 9:49:15 GMT -6
GFS is money in the bank. I'll take it. Crazy that even with the GFS you can see banding in the radar/precip sim. Where these bands hit it will likely be very intense snowfall.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Apr 4, 2018 9:55:23 GMT -6
GFS is money in the bank. I'll take it. Crazy that even with the GFS you can see banding in the radar/precip sim. Where these bands hit it will likely be very intense snowfall. Classic 2-5 inch setup with lollipops of 6+ in persistent banding. |
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Post by unclesam6 on Apr 4, 2018 10:07:30 GMT -6
EURO is meh
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Apr 4, 2018 10:09:49 GMT -6
Gfs and gem have a couple inches Sunday afternoon this run.
12z Euro just needs to come in nice now.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Apr 4, 2018 10:23:54 GMT -6
I've been doing this gig for 25 years in Saint Louis and I have to say that I'm floored looking at my car thermometer right now. I have Sunny skies at 11:20 a.m. on April the 4th and the best I can do for a temperature is 35ﾟ At really is pretty extraordinary. There are winter days that we cannot keep this cold under the same conditions...with snow on the ground.
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Post by mosue56 on Apr 4, 2018 10:33:36 GMT -6
It's not really gonna snow anymore, is it? Although I'd rather have this than 90 deg in April!
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Post by STGOutdoors on Apr 4, 2018 10:34:30 GMT -6
This is a remarkable stretch that we may not see again in another 30 years, if ever. Let's make it really remarkable Friday night!
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Post by Chris Higgins on Apr 4, 2018 10:53:25 GMT -6
I need to look at the Euro today to get more comfortable...but there are a couple of things I am considering for the Friday night event.
1) Models started south and eased north with time with the Easter system...which has a lot of similarities with Friday night
2) The 700mb convergence zone...and track of 700mb vort max were very effective tools to ID the snow band...and differentiate snow from mix/sleet.
3) This is reallllly cold air.
Looking at the GFS and NAM 700mb structures...without looking at QPF... points to a max band near or just south of I-70..which is somewhat north of the GFS qpf placement...which seems to be weighted more towards the 850mb and surface fronts...where precip is sure to be rain or maybe sleet.
Looking at the QPF now...you can likely shave the southern half of the alleged snow forecast off entirely...or anything that is south of the 700mb vort track...assuming the GFS is corrwct with everything else. It is still 2+ days away... but obviously it is an interesting event...that looks a lot like a 1-3 or 2-4 type system in the max band. Could there be a little more in a narrow band...sure..but that will be more the exception and not the rule. The most likely range is somewhere in that 1-3 or 2-4 area...or about 2-3. This is generally right down I-70..including metro STL..And maybe 50 miles south.
***Those are just preliminary thoughts based onnpattern recognition and the early models. I reserve the right to modify based on what tge Euro has to say. *****
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Apr 4, 2018 11:04:36 GMT -6
12z gfs ensemble mean is beefy...
9z sref mean continued upward climb.
Overall gefs mean for Friday-Monday in the metro is approximately 7 inches lol.
Obviously there would be some melting and compaction between the two events, but still.
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Post by landscaper on Apr 4, 2018 11:07:57 GMT -6
What are they showing
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Apr 4, 2018 11:20:07 GMT -6
I know the sun is higher and the days are longer. But, unlike last Sunday, with this colder air in place for several days before any weekend snow are we going to have a situation where we could get accumulation even on pavement much as we would in “real“ winter?
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Post by bdgwx on Apr 4, 2018 11:23:55 GMT -6
It's really hard to tell from the limited graphics available, but the 12Z UKMET appears to be north of the 0Z cycle. The maxima is maybe in a line from Rolla to Farmington. This is yet another piece of evidence that suggests the area between I-70 and US-60 has the highest odds for snow or at least some type of wintery precipitation.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Apr 4, 2018 11:55:32 GMT -6
Ah rt 60. Aka part of the old proposed I-66 that was going to traverse southern mo but since nobody lives down there...i recall cape being jealous that sikeston would have 3 interstates running through it while Cape had 1 interstate basically bypassing it. So they got the local congressman to push through legislation ghat would fund replacement of the old bridge to try to lure the I-66 project furthee north into cape. Truth be told with the national forest in southern il there isnt any chance of a major hiway connecting to that shiny new bridge in cape. I guess the congressmen that voted for the funding of that bridge didnt bother looking at a map. Lol. Thats ok, i broke a side view mirror on that bridge as an 18 wheeler and my 72 ford maverick met back in 80.lots of ppl broke mirrors on that bridge. Lol
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