Chris's Corner - Happy Easter and a New Thread

12z Euro has moved north and targets metro Stl.

Nice

12z Euro is high end advisory or low end warning.

Damn.

Area between Cape and Stl gets hammered.

It's pretty cool. I do hope the Euro trends a bit colder at the onset. This run it starts a bit warm. By the back half of the event things are pretty much January like though lol.

We are now fully inside the 3 day window for this event. At this point I think we can say with reasonable confidence that a WWA is certainly possible for some subset of the region from say 1 county north of I-70 to 1 county south of US-60. I should point out that there were 2 members from the GEFS that were actually north of I-70. None were south of US-60 at least for a mostly snow event anyway. Obviously there will be a mixed bag of precip types the closer you get to the MO/AR border that may cut into snowfall totals. I've also been noticing that with the Euro and GFS the op runs have tended to have a south bias compared to their ensemble means. The next op cycle then nudges north a hair to match the previous cycle's ensemble mean. If that trend continues than maybe, just maybe, we can get this to keep nudging north a hair. I'll leave it at that because I'm already toeing the line with wishcasting on that last statement 

Any idea on timing with this storm? I am leaving Moberly at 3:30 PM on Friday to head to St. Peters.

And here are the 12Z EPS and GEFS ensemble means. A blend here might suggest an axis from from Jefferson City to Festus generally along and maybe south of US-50 for the best potential. I'm not really focused on amounts yet; just trying to get a feel for where and how the orientation of the axis of heaviest QPF is lining up via global modeling.

I dont see any instability in the column so pretty low

And from the 15Z SREF we have Union getting bullseyed. Yeah, I admit, that's a little suspicious, but it is what it is. We're still probably too far out to give the mesoscale ensemble too much weighting, but it is generally inline with the model consensus. The interesting thing to note with the 15Z cycle is that the members fall into 3 different camps: 1) duds 2) realists and 3) big boys. Personally I think "big boy" totals are less likely than what the SREF is objectively saying. 




The last 4 cycles of the SREF have been trending up with the totals. Like I said this might be over doing it because of the "big boys".



And you can see the members clustering into 3 different camps.

Just a quick look at the 500mb vort/hts does not support the QPF placement from the Euro...it supports a shade further north...pretty much in line with the SREF output....or an axis from Jefferson City to Festus...maybe even a bit more to the north.

18Z Nam is a crusher for much of us.

I really hope the NAM is wrong. The northern trend is starting to show its hand now.

NAM tracks a deepening 850mb low across the S counties which would put the metro smack dab in the good stuff...the N trend is definitely alive and well. A Jeff City to Salem, IL line seems like a good compromise at this point...maybe a bit north of that...thinking a solid advisory level snowfall is likely at this point in the metro area Friday evening.

18z gfs is pretty dry this run.

Hopefully just a blip.

Extremely cold during and after the snow though.  Mid 20s during the snow and mid teens Saturday morning.

This will be historical one way or another.

While the 18z gfs was drier for Friday night, it gave it right back on Sunday with several inches of snow.

I think we are going to have some fun.