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Post by Snowman99 on Apr 4, 2018 16:10:02 GMT -6
Chris you gonna make a general prelim map?
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Post by STGOutdoors on Apr 4, 2018 16:19:37 GMT -6
Really a standoff between the weaker Gfs and the stronger nam. Somewhere in between would make us all happy. A couple inches on the ground would make Saturday night very cold. What are the records this weekend? I seem to remember a record cold snap around these same dates back in '07.
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Post by Tilawn on Apr 4, 2018 16:23:04 GMT -6
Sorry all but I’m hoping this continues on it’s north trend and just leaves us alone in the snow department. It’s April and with all the rain recently I’m already 3+ weeks behind and snow will just make it that much worse. The ground in this area is just saturated and can barely walk on it with making messes in lawns. So I’ll be happy if it misses us and obviously if i have to work I guess I’ll be happy also for the income from it but just further behind on everything else. 😊😊
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Apr 4, 2018 17:09:08 GMT -6
18z nam coming in ANGRY lol. Death band. Sounds like the name of a heavy metal rock group. |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Apr 4, 2018 17:55:49 GMT -6
18z gefs is much better than the operational run.
18z gem is nice.
All is well.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Apr 4, 2018 18:15:07 GMT -6
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Apr 4, 2018 18:45:33 GMT -6
Let's try this again...
Cardinals are a fun team with dominant starting pitching, a potent offense, and a deep bullpen.
If it ends poorly this time I will change my user name.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Apr 4, 2018 18:52:40 GMT -6
Let's try this again... Cardinals are a fun team with dominant starting pitching, a potent offense, and a deep bullpen. If it ends poorly this time I will change my user name. Now your really going to jinx it |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Apr 4, 2018 18:57:16 GMT -6
Actually, the NAM does show some elevated CAPE... just above the DGZ... This sounding from the hi res NAM has a small amount of instability right through the DGZ  |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Apr 4, 2018 19:10:51 GMT -6
Let's try this again... Cardinals are a fun team with dominant starting pitching, a potent offense, and a deep bullpen. If it ends poorly this time I will change my user name. They are fun to watch so far. So much more energy with these guys. Lots of pop in that lineup. Matheny needs to let Maddox manage the pen and staff because, well he stuggles with that and I'm being nice. |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Apr 4, 2018 19:22:58 GMT -6
The 21z SREF plume is out.
WHOAAAA this is getting fun.
Mean has grown to 4 inches. Fantastic clustering in the 3-7 inch range.
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Post by bdgwx on Apr 4, 2018 19:36:32 GMT -6
There aren't as many duds on it either...at least in terms of snow. The QPF on the SREF has been pretty consistent the last 4 runs at 0.6-0.8". But, ptype probabilities actually have a pretty significant percentage of that as just plain old boring rain.
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Post by guyfromhecker on Apr 4, 2018 19:49:49 GMT -6
Let's try this again... Cardinals are a fun team with dominant starting pitching, a potent offense, and a deep bullpen. If it ends poorly this time I will change my user name. They are fun to watch so far. So much more energy with these guys. Lots of pop in that lineup. Matheny needs to let Maddox manage the pen and staff because, well he stuggles with that and I'm being nice. Your being very nice. You almost wonder if he knows what matchup means. |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Apr 4, 2018 19:57:14 GMT -6
Chris you gonna make a general prelim map? My draft looks like the t-shirt  |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Apr 4, 2018 20:01:17 GMT -6
But seriously... been working on some other stuff this evening... but hope to get back focused on forecast soon...and hope to push something out before leaving tonight.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Apr 4, 2018 20:31:31 GMT -6
00z nam is PERFECTO
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Post by bdgwx on Apr 4, 2018 20:32:36 GMT -6
So I'm starting to take a closer look at ptypes. There's going to be problems figuring out what percentage of the QPF is going to be rain/sleet/snow at least the way the system is being modeled right now. Those 10:1 and even the Kuchera maps are going to be very problematic. Part of the problem is that the thermal profile through a deep layer of the atmosphere is cooling very rapidly so the 6-hour QPF maps are actually a mix of rain and snow, but the snowfall maps may be using the thermal profile at the end of the 6-hour period when it's colder when doing the 10:1 or Kuchera adjustment. This is especially problematic with the Euro charts since they are often 6-hour intervals. That 4-6" snow swath on the 12Z Euro 10:1 snow chart is overestimating on the southern end possibly by a significant amount. The snow depth products on Pivotal Weather or Tropical Tidbits is probably your best bet if you don't want to dig into soundings or bufkit.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Apr 4, 2018 20:35:50 GMT -6
Yep, drops it back south putting the southern counties back into the game. Razor sharp cut off north of I-70 however. |
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Post by bdgwx on Apr 4, 2018 20:39:15 GMT -6
The 0Z NAM is good example of what I'm talking about. The whole southern half of that snow on 10:1 maps is probably mostly rain. The snow depth products look reasonable though.
Edit: Even the instantweathermaps proprietary (and generally pretty good) snowfall maps are suspicious to me.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Apr 4, 2018 20:39:17 GMT -6
Looks like a slight wobble south but thats all it really is, a wobble in the runs |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Apr 4, 2018 20:39:53 GMT -6
Yep, drops it back south putting the southern counties back into the game. Razor sharp cut off north of I-70 however. Its slower and colder which is awesome. Even an hour or 2 extra in that band could mean another 1-3 inches of snow. You can see it has an ever so slight wobble NNE between hours 51-54. |
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Apr 4, 2018 20:41:38 GMT -6
NAM pretty much shows a solid 3 to 6" event emphasis on the 3-4.5 inch range for pretty much everyone along and south of I-70.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Apr 4, 2018 20:42:08 GMT -6
The 0Z NAM is good example of what I'm talking about. The whole southern half of that snow on 10:1 maps is probably mostly rain. The snow depth products look reasonable though. Ya the snowfall output maps are guesstimating way to high in the southern snowfield On a side note the Blues are something else sometimes |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Apr 4, 2018 20:43:14 GMT -6
The nam and to some extent the euro are trying to pivot this thing NNE a bit.
If that happens, its a game changer.
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Post by cozpregon on Apr 4, 2018 20:48:34 GMT -6
So I'm starting to take a closer look at ptypes. There's going to be problems figuring out what percentage of the QPF is going to be rain/sleet/snow at least the way the system is being modeled right now. Those 10:1 and even the Kuchera maps are going to be very problematic. Part of the problem is that the thermal profile through a deep layer of the atmosphere is cooling very rapidly so the 6-hour QPF maps are actually a mix of rain and snow, but the snowfall maps may be using the thermal profile at the end of the 6-hour period when it's colder when doing the 10:1 or Kuchera adjustment. This is especially problematic with the Euro charts since they are often 6-hour intervals. That 4-6" snow swath on the 12Z Euro 10:1 snow chart is overestimating on the southern end possibly by a significant amount. The snow depth products on Pivotal Weather or Tropical Tidbits is probably your best bet if you don't want to dig into soundings or bufkit. That's why you don't base your forecast off those charts... but more times than not it will show a pretty accurate max snow band. |
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Post by bdgwx on Apr 4, 2018 20:49:58 GMT -6
The NAM looks really good for those lucky enough to be in that 50 mile wide sweet spot. Coincidentally (or maybe not) this is right along the US-50 corridor from Jefferson City to Union to Waterloo. I bet we're going to see this band bounce around on models between now and event time.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Apr 4, 2018 20:52:54 GMT -6
Hi Res NAM looks solid. Im going to stick with my max band along 1-70 and 20ish miles to the south.
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Post by landscaper on Apr 4, 2018 20:55:42 GMT -6
Based on current modeling, My first call today is 2-5” along and south of 70 through the metro from 6pm-6am this storm has so many good things going for it, time of day, cold temps, strong southern low etc
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Post by cardsnweather on Apr 4, 2018 21:14:09 GMT -6
I still can’t believe, on the eve of The Masters and Opening Day at Busch, that I am tracking a pretty significant snowstorm.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Apr 4, 2018 21:27:20 GMT -6
Here you go...I will smooth out the upper bounds tomorrow.  |
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