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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Apr 4, 2018 21:49:07 GMT -6
00z gfs is pretty meh.
It shows a couple inches for the southern metro, but is definitely moisture starved compared to the other models.
Colder too, which offsets it some, but I'm being greedy and want a solid storm.
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Post by landscaper on Apr 4, 2018 21:49:58 GMT -6
Gfs is not a good trend at all south and weak
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Apr 4, 2018 22:00:28 GMT -6
Gfs is not a good trend at all south and weak Fortunately, it looks nice for Sunday. Plus, its ensembles have not bought into the weak and dry trend so far. |
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Post by landscaper on Apr 4, 2018 22:26:32 GMT -6
Gem , jumped ship as well, much further south 1-2” of snow metro
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Post by jeepers on Apr 4, 2018 22:28:41 GMT -6
Snow in April.....and the Blues are killing me.
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Apr 4, 2018 22:35:55 GMT -6
I have a feeling this is going to end up Weske
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Apr 4, 2018 22:36:23 GMT -6
I have a feeling this is going to end up Weske Weaker and South. |
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Post by landscaper on Apr 4, 2018 22:38:43 GMT -6
I agree Friv
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Post by Snowman99 on Apr 4, 2018 23:10:55 GMT -6
ukmet is back south again too.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Apr 4, 2018 23:13:18 GMT -6
Overall.. based on the 00z data that is in so far... I still like the Jefferson City to Festus line. Maybe a touch further south based on the 00z data.. but no need to get that fine right now. A general 2" with some spots higher is a good start for the areas I have highlighted. I will admit... I would have preferred not to see the southward shuffle... but I'm staying put for now.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Apr 4, 2018 23:19:44 GMT -6
For your viewing pleasure...the 00z 4km RPM. I wish I had the dynamics that go along with this... but we are not provided that information..  |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Apr 4, 2018 23:23:39 GMT -6
Man if we get missed to the south by a snowstorm in April. I guess that would summarize the winter pretty well though
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Post by Snowman99 on Apr 4, 2018 23:59:39 GMT -6
GEFS shifted south some as well, but not too bad.
sorry 1-2 inches don't cut it. The last 2 systems have brought 5-7 inches in spots.
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Post by Snowman99 on Apr 5, 2018 0:08:57 GMT -6
Aaaand the euro has crapped out south. We basically get a few flurries. Unbelievable. Good god
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Post by Snowman99 on Apr 5, 2018 0:25:59 GMT -6
Yep. Euro snow Friday thru Sunday. Where Have I seen this before? Oh..all the damn time. Haha Attachment Deleted |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Apr 5, 2018 0:29:36 GMT -6
Hey look... the 00z Euro is trying on one of my T-Shirts! These are the totals for both Friday night and Sunday combined   |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Apr 5, 2018 0:36:05 GMT -6
Even in April winter still has to remind St Louis it hates it. Well atleast we get one (maybe 2) snowfalls before the heat and humidity start ramping up. Enjoy it while you can
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Post by Snowman99 on Apr 5, 2018 2:33:12 GMT -6
Unreal. The SREF took a hit, now down to under 3". But the 6z NAM has nothing. Absolutely nothing.
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Post by Snowman99 on Apr 5, 2018 2:59:55 GMT -6
WPC has mod risk of at least 4", almost 50% probability.
NWS forecast hasn't changed really. They say in disco that confidence is increasing in advisory.
Guess we'll see what 12z shows. Either confidence will continue to increase, or it will crash and burn if the trend continues.
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Post by Snowman99 on Apr 5, 2018 3:49:26 GMT -6
6zGFS is nothing. This thing is just absolutely demolished from what was modeled 24 hours ago. It just completely falls apart and reforms way south and east. Remarkable
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Post by STGOutdoors on Apr 5, 2018 4:20:22 GMT -6
Well I did not expect to wake up and see this. Wow. I don't know what was a worse punch in the gut...this thing falling apart or the blues blowing it last night!
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Post by Tilawn on Apr 5, 2018 4:31:03 GMT -6
Still showing pretty downright cold for this time of year tho.
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Apr 5, 2018 4:55:10 GMT -6
🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣.....one last blow to the gut!
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Apr 5, 2018 4:59:47 GMT -6
Let me guess, system came ashore throwing all models off...are we at that point on that list???
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Post by STGOutdoors on Apr 5, 2018 5:06:25 GMT -6
Losing it 72 hours out is one thing. 36-48 is just cruel. I guess nws is waiting on the 12z suite to jump ship.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Apr 5, 2018 5:12:08 GMT -6
If it really does go this way, then the Icon wins this storm. Had this several days out.
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Post by landscaper on Apr 5, 2018 5:16:03 GMT -6
That will probably go down as one of the biggest model fails of all times, what a flip in just six hours
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Apr 5, 2018 5:43:42 GMT -6
Glenn mentioned 1 to 2
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Apr 5, 2018 5:54:59 GMT -6
Models equivalent of a huge April Fools joke?
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Post by guyfromhecker on Apr 5, 2018 6:04:55 GMT -6
I get a kick out of everybody is saying this is a big model whatever. A rain event this light and it made a shift like that everybody would be saying, oh well. It happens. Lord knows, if it flipped for one run it can flip back again.
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