|
|
Post by ElKay23 - Columbia, IL on Apr 5, 2018 6:09:11 GMT -6
Losing it 72 hours out is one thing. 36-48 is just cruel. I guess nws is waiting on the 12z suite to jump ship.  |
|
|
|
Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Apr 5, 2018 6:42:17 GMT -6
NWS says 2 to 3, mainly along and south of I-70 |
|
|
|
Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Apr 5, 2018 7:32:35 GMT -6
I was concerned abt a south shift with so much cold air overwhelming the pattern but i was only figuring a 1 to 2 inch event. Still impactful if the ams is that cold.
|
|
|
|
Post by STGOutdoors on Apr 5, 2018 7:34:39 GMT -6
12z's will determine the mood of this board for some time to come.
|
|
|
|
Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Apr 5, 2018 7:42:09 GMT -6
I think there will be a slight jog to the north with areas like jeffco and the hills to our southwest getting 3 in lollipops. Very sharp cutoff to the north and south with 1 to 2 across southern stc county and ste gen county. Stl county 1 to 2 in the south but less than inch stl city and noco. Lets see if this plays out.
|
|
|
|
Post by STGOutdoors on Apr 5, 2018 8:23:53 GMT -6
Nam tries to get precip to fire up over MO but fails for the most part due to the explosion of thunderstorms down in Arkansas. Wow. Just a complete shift in energy during that time which leaves us with not much to work with up here.
|
|
|
|
Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Apr 5, 2018 8:24:13 GMT -6
The 12z nam is...how you say...horrible.
Lol, whole thing is disjointed. Midlevel features are south and shunt the WAA ESE.
Sunday is the one to watch now.
|
|
|
|
Post by STGOutdoors on Apr 5, 2018 8:28:57 GMT -6
Let's please move on. Time to turkey hunt and morel hunt.
|
|
|
|
Post by Tilawn on Apr 5, 2018 8:29:44 GMT -6
|
|
|
|
Post by Frivolousz21 on Apr 5, 2018 8:31:57 GMT -6
Just incredible.
The sad thing is every model was in great agreement.
|
|
|
|
Post by mosue56 on Apr 5, 2018 8:31:59 GMT -6
Winter storm watch for Louisville KY- God bless em!
|
|
|
|
Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Apr 5, 2018 8:32:02 GMT -6
Ok. Well thats that then.
|
|
|
|
Post by The Commish- Lake St. Louis on Apr 5, 2018 8:41:42 GMT -6
Well, that was painful. Another storm that comes to die in St. Louis and blesses another area with a bountiful snow. We can't catch a break in this area. I agree with Friv, almost every single model had this storm and then in few short hours "poof", it is gone. That's the price you pay for being a fan of weather models.
|
|
|
|
Post by guyfromhecker on Apr 5, 2018 8:47:15 GMT -6
Folks, we saw hints of this for days. The way it kind of waned as a came into our area was evident before. I'm just shocked that everybody is so shocked about that. Up until the last 24 hours it was almost always showing the hint of a gap in this area for the last 3 days or so.
|
|
|
|
Post by cardsnweather on Apr 5, 2018 8:50:46 GMT -6
Sunday looks goo.... oh, why even bother. Give me 60's and sun.
|
|
|
|
Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Apr 5, 2018 8:53:50 GMT -6
Sunday looks goo.... oh, why even bother. Give me 60's and sun. It does look good though lol. I would take a couple inches of snow during the day in April. Apparently we can't have accurate modeling beyond 36 hours though... |
|
|
|
Post by BRTNWXMAN on Apr 5, 2018 9:03:20 GMT -6
Models are all of a sudden trying to split the upstream jetstreak which is pulling the developing low way S...I'm not completely sold on this diving that far S but there's definitely a strong trend in that direction. The large-scale pattern looks good otherwise with the outbound jetstreak across the lakes, backbuilding as the system digs a bit. But the surface ridge and C/DAA is trending stronger.
|
|
|
|
Post by bdgwx on Apr 5, 2018 9:15:16 GMT -6
At 250mb the western jet streak and eastern jet streaks are getting too close together as well. Maybe it's a trend and maybe it's a glitch. I'd wait until the 12Z global models run before making any drastic changes to the going forecast.
|
|
|
|
Post by STGOutdoors on Apr 5, 2018 9:50:27 GMT -6
GFS sucks too. It's definitely over. Funny how at the end of the day we get a disorganized mess just like we dealt with all winter. If not for last week's system actually coming together I don't think any of us would have even taken the bait.
|
|
|
|
Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Apr 5, 2018 9:58:47 GMT -6
Gotta love it!!
|
|
|
|
Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Apr 5, 2018 10:03:13 GMT -6
GFS sucks too. It's definitely over. Funny how at the end of the day we get a disorganized mess just like we dealt with all winter. If not for last week's system actually coming together I don't think any of us would have even taken the bait. Sunday looks solid on this run still. |
|
|
|
Post by bdgwx on Apr 5, 2018 10:03:47 GMT -6
It certainly appears like the trend is a more southern band of snow closer to US-60. Even that isn't a certainty though.
|
|
|
|
Post by Snowstorm920 on Apr 5, 2018 10:08:00 GMT -6
Thankfully we are already into April because I don’t know how much more of these model failures I can take.
|
|
|
|
Post by mchafin on Apr 5, 2018 10:25:52 GMT -6
GFS sucks too. It's definitely over. Funny how at the end of the day we get a disorganized mess just like we dealt with all winter. If not for last week's system actually coming together I don't think any of us would have even taken the bait. Sunday looks solid on this run still. looks good until tonight's run. |
|
|
|
Post by Chris Higgins on Apr 5, 2018 10:42:51 GMT -6
Just when we thought this winters repeating "disappearing acts" with systems in the northwest flow was over... we get the carpet yanked out from under us.
This isn't just a split... it is the complete disappearance of a system that from 18 hours ago and before was big and beefy on pretty every possible model. It was impossible to ignore and will be painful to articulate.
It may not be scientifically true... but the best way forward may be to do some creative word-smithing that the emphasis in the atmosphere is shifting away from Friday night and more towards the Sunday system...leaving us with more cold and dry Friday night and Saturday...and focusing more on snow for Sunday.
|
|
|
|
Post by guyfromhecker on Apr 5, 2018 10:43:19 GMT -6
I thought the initial surface low track on the WPC yesterday and thought man that's pretty far south for what they were expecting. I looked at it today when I got up and thought man that's really not impressive. You just got to wonder why we're getting our hopes up for Sunday
|
|
|
|
Post by Chris Higgins on Apr 5, 2018 10:43:33 GMT -6
Thankfully we are already into April because I don’t know how much more of these model failures I can take. 42 more weeks till next winter! |
|
|
|
Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Apr 5, 2018 10:48:31 GMT -6
12z gem is a heavy hitter Sunday.
Either way, I'm out for a while. Time to go have some adult beverages and enjoy a baseball game.
|
|
|
|
Post by bellevillewxguy on Apr 5, 2018 10:55:59 GMT -6
Glad I checked here first before looking at the 12Z Models only to get disappointed and wasting my time. So when's the next chance of storms as in t-storms? So ready for Summer its not even funny. CFS 768hr from 0Z says I won't have to wait long with 80s and 90s coming in 3-4 weeks.
|
|
|
|
Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Apr 5, 2018 11:02:43 GMT -6
Havent looked at sunday recently. Reason is because 2 back to back snows just dont happen around here. Figured sunday is a northerner....1) what has changed for sunday; 2) what makes us think it wont deviate like friday nights system? Cld friday night set up the situation for sunday bringing it more south? It sounds like these are 2 separate streams...maybe artic high causing these systems to be more suppressed and the models put too much climatology into the equation?
|
|
